Market Reports

The Birmingham industrial market is poised for an increase in absorption as the apex of higher interest rates seem to be settling down, not to mention the post-election certainty that now favors business expansion. Corporate America is waking up and the clouds are clearing.   For the past 24 months, the competitive set of investor-controlled warehouse space has been sitting on about 2 million square feet of inventory. About 550,000 square feet of that is still unleased speculative space in three different projects delivered at the back-end of the post-COVID development wave that did see about 700,000 square feet of absorption of new spec space before the music metaphorically stopped.  Then came the 2023/2024 wave of the “new spec space,” a byproduct of the mentioned interest rates and COVID over-correction. Several second-generation spaces are now being marketed as companies vacated or downsized for various reasons. For example, discount retailer Dollar General is vacating an entire 307,000-square-foot warehouse.  Broader, there have been two major announcements in Central Alabama for the closure of distribution centers, both as a result of retailers’ bankruptcies. JoAnn Fabric’s 700,000-square-foot distribution facility in Opelika at I-85 is now on the market as is the 1.2 million-square-foot former …

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By Chris Bruzas, Berkadia After a particularly challenging and unpredictable 2024, marked by continued interest rate volatility and a persistent bid-ask spread differential that contributed to low transaction volume, the Indianapolis apartment market is showing promising signs of stabilization as we move into 2025.  Yardi Matrix data highlights Indianapolis’ resilience, posting 2.7 percent year-over-year rent growth in November. This performance is especially noteworthy as it surpasses several popular Sun Belt markets, which have experienced declines, dipping into negative territory. The outlook for 2025 appears more balanced, with new supply moderating to approximately 3,500 units from 2024’s record-breaking 6,500+ deliveries. This timing aligns well with the market’s strong population growth, as Indianapolis expects to welcome 22,200 new residents in 2025, significantly exceeding the historical average of 12,800 annual net movers. Key factors of the population’s growth are due to the presence of reputable universities and colleges, such as Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI). Compared with other major metropolitan areas, Indianapolis offers a relatively low cost of living, making it an attractive destination for those looking to maximize their quality of life without the high expenses associated with larger cities. The region’s economic fundamentals remain strong, anchored by transformative projects including Eli …

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— By Shane Shafer of Northmarq — The Orange County apartment market is one of the most dynamic and sought-after real estate sectors in Southern California. Known for its beautiful beaches, high quality of life, and proximity to major job centers like Los Angeles and San Diego, Orange County has become a prime location for renters. As of 2025, the apartment market in the area is marked by a blend of high demand, rising rents, and an evolving landscape shaped by both economic and demographic trends. The demand for apartments in Orange County has been consistently strong in recent years. This is driven by both local and regional factors. The county’s thriving economy — bolstered by sectors like technology, healthcare, tourism and finance — provides ample job opportunities, making it an attractive place for workers from across the state and beyond. This influx of talent, combined with a relatively low housing supply, has kept rental demand high, particularly in areas near major employment hubs, such as Irvine, Costa Mesa and Anaheim.  The region’s high desirability keeps apartment vacancies generally low, with occupancy rates often nearing or surpassing 95 percent. New construction, while robust, has not fully kept pace with the …

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By Taylor Williams AUSTIN, TEXAS — On the surface, Austin has everything that expanding retail and restaurant operators could possibly want: youth, density, culture, high-paying jobs. Yet when these users begin scouting and diving into the state capital’s retail real estate market, they often find that entering or expanding there is much easier said than done. Skyrocketing home prices, increased vehicular congestion and limited infrastructure outside the urban core are just the most visible ways in which Austin has been somewhat victimized by its own torrid growth over the past 10 to 15 years. And each of those variables factors into retail site selection and contributes to the challenges of adding new retail and restaurant space to the market. Editor’s note: InterFace Conference Group, a division of France Media Inc., produces networking and educational conferences for commercial real estate executives. To sign up for email announcements about specific events, visit www.interfaceconferencegroup.com/subscribe. Simply put, if there are no rooftops, roads, parking spaces and utilities, there can be no new retail development. Such is the story in some of Austin’s more remote suburbs, though few doubt that those preliminary requirements for retail growth will eventually be delivered. But there is also the issue of raw …

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— By John Read of CBRE Retail Investment Properties-West — The expression “in the black” signifies financial health, a positive outlook, investment opportunities and growth. It’s a phrase that’s resonating strongly with investors, as Orange County’s thriving retail fundamentals spur robust demand for investment properties. Despite ongoing capital market volatility and fluctuating interest rates, Orange County remains a prime target for retail property investors. The county’s strong retail property fundamentals is driven by its diverse, affluent and highly educated population. The average household income in Orange County exceeds $157,000, with more than 46 percent of residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. It also boasts a low unemployment rate of 3.8 percent. Retail property fundamentals concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 with a county-wide availability rate of 3.8 percent, down from the previous quarter. This reduction was fueled by sustained demand, limited inventory, minimal future supply, 547,000 square feet of positive net absorption and an average asking rent of $2.57 per square foot, a $0.13 increase from the prior year. These positive trends, combined with limited new retail property construction (only 190,000 square feet of supply, representing 0.1 percent of existing inventory and the lowest share among the nation’s 40 …

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Southeast Real Estate Business recently caught up with John McCrary, director of investment sales in Berkadia’s Birmingham office, to discuss trends in the local apartment market. McCrary, who specializes in investment sales in Alabama, east Tennessee and southern Mississippi, says that Birmingham’s occupancy will likely take a hit as new deliveries hit the market in the first half of the year, but there’s optimism that renters will be able to absorb those availabilities in short order. “With approximately 800 units expected to be delivered at the beginning of 2025, vacancy rates are likely to rise throughout the year,” says McCrary. “However, the slowdown in construction starts should help absorb existing units and eventually reduce the elevated vacancy rate.” The following is an edited interview: Southeast Real Estate Business: What major local or macro-economic trends are affecting the multifamily market in Birmingham?  John McCrary: The interest rate environment is a key factor influencing multifamily dispositions, both in the Southeast and nationwide. Fluctuations in interest rates impact borrowing costs for developers and investors, thereby affecting the supply and demand for multifamily properties. Over the past year, Birmingham has seen strong multifamily demand, but it hasn’t kept pace with the influx of new …

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By Jason Capitani, L. Mason Capitani/CORFAC International The automotive industry and business as a whole have always operated in cycles. Looking back at 2009, when Southeast Michigan faced significant challenges, the region’s recovery in the years that followed shows how resilient the local economy can be. Yet, as we navigate today’s post-COVID landscape, some still hope for a more gradual and stable recovery. Though questions remain about whether Detroit should have seen a market correction years ago, or if electric vehicle programs have artificially propped up the economy, only time will tell. Michigan’s jobless rate hovers around 4 percent, lower than the national average of over 7 percent, marking the lowest level since before the pandemic. The state has added over 450,000 jobs since 2020. While the automotive sector remains dominant, other thriving industries include advanced manufacturing, defense, IT, medical devices, food processing and logistics. 2025 outlook: early weakness with potential for shift Demand for industrial space in late 2024 and early 2025 has been weaker, with net absorption at its lowest since 2021. This dip might signal a shift in the auto industry, with some speculating a return to hybrid or combustion engine production, though these decisions take time …

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By Nellie Day Metro Phoenix’s population grew to include more than 5 million people in 2023, per the Census, making it the second fastest-growing large U.S. city that year. This increase in residents and employment opportunities naturally brought new, emerging and different retailers to the area, who quickly occupied both existing centers and new developments.  Phoenix-headquartered Vestar’s activity paints a picture of how this retail market has grown with its population. In the last quarter of 2024 alone, Vestar broke ground on Verrado Marketplace, a 500,000-square-foot shopping center in Buckeye; ushered in a new wave of tenant openings at Las Tiendas Village in Chandler and Queen Creek Marketplace in Queen Creek; and brought back a seasonal pop-up inside a 50-foot spherical dome at the District at Desert Ridge Marketplace in Phoenix. Balancing Tenant Mix, Community Relevance The key to capitalizing on Metro Phoenix’s growth, the firm says, is focusing on tenant diversification and market positioning. Vestar actively seeks out curated tenant mixes that not only attract foot traffic but align with the demographic and economic profiles of each community. Las Tiendas Village, for example, recently welcomed Marshalls, beauty supply store Happy Beauty, luxury lash spa Revelashons and child-focused hair salon …

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Baltimore’s retail market is alive and well and has experienced something of a boom in retail activity, driven in large part by the thriving retail hubs in the city and in the surrounding suburbs. Demand for space continues to be robust and prospective tenants and investors alike are excited to be part of the Baltimore market.  But the reasons why are more nuanced than simply piggybacking off the overall growth that brick-and-mortar retail is seeing across the country.   Baltimore is a bargain One of the causes is the terrific value that Charm City offers when comparing prices to the major metropolises of Washington, D.C., to the south and Philadelphia to the north. The Baltimore MSA offers attractive demographics and strong retail fundamentals, making it a prime target for local, regional and national investors.  A great example is the sale by KLNB’s Retail Capital Markets team of Arbutus Shopping Center in fall 2024, a 88,000-square-foot, grocery-anchored center that attracted significant demand due to its Baltimore County location, sub-$20 million price point and the broader market’s interest in grocery-anchored retail assets. Due to these robust conditions and factors, among other reasons, owners are hesitant to sell — despite the substantial interest …

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By Lance Evinger III, Hendricks Commercial Properties In an era where consumers seek more than just products, experience-driven spaces are reshaping the commercial real estate landscape. In Indianapolis, developers and urban planners are increasingly focused on transforming some of the city’s most underutilized yet high-potential areas into dynamic destinations that foster engagement, connection and excitement. Indianapolis boasts a diverse and rapidly evolving commercial real estate market that continues to attract significant investment and development. Key sectors — including office, industrial, retail and mixed-use developments — have experienced steady growth, with a strong focus on adaptive reuse projects and innovative design concepts. The city’s strategic central location, robust infrastructure and thriving convention scene make it a prime destination for businesses and developers alike.  Named USA Today’s No. 1 Convention City in the U.S. in 2024, downtown Indianapolis attracts over 10 million visitors annually, a number that continues to grow. In the past year, downtown hotels have set all-time monthly revenue records, fueled by major events like the NFL Combine and NBA All-Star Weekend. At the same time, the Indiana Convention Center has seen a 14.5 percent year-over-year increase in visitors, further cementing the city’s reputation as a top-tier event destination. With …

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