Market Reports

Latest Shift in Atlanta’s Industrial Landscape: Mid-Sized Deals are All the Rage

by John Nelson April 5, 2021

While retail and office have had to adjust to a COVID-19 world, industrial has been the beneficiary. E-commerce, supply chain and last mile delivery are all the rage. But what has really gotten economic development leaders, elected officials and the media excited are the massive warehouse deals in cities like Atlanta that have created headlines and driven investor capital to industrial. Atlanta didn’t even truly get into the big-box industrial development game until 2004. From 1960 to 2006 there were just 13 buildings larger than 1 million square feet constructed in the metro area, but 11 were build-to-suits for users such as JC Penney, Kmart, Publix, Home Depot and the General Services Administration. Only Duke Realty (2004) and Majestic (2006) developed speculative properties spanning more than 1 million square feet. Between 2006 and 2015, there were 11 buildings more than 1 million square feet added to the city’s inventory, with seven of those south of Interstate 20, three in the Northeast 85 corridor and one on the Interstate 20 West Corridor. As Atlanta’s economy roared back in 2016, the market exploded with 17 new big-box facilities in just five years. While prior to 2015 the field of players constructing these …

April 5, 2021

Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Nashville Retail Market’s Investment Sales, Leasing Activity Defy Pandemic Impact

by John Nelson April 5, 2021

In spite of national trends, news of spiking default rates and a prediction of a national decline in retail tenancy, the middle Tennessee region appears to be emerging in equal (or better) condition from one of the most unusual years in history. Prior to the government-mandated shutdowns last year, retail activity in Nashville was at a fever pitch. A decade of year-over-year population and economic growth created a strong seller’s and landlord’s market, with no end in sight. The University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research projected a 1 million-person population growth for Middle Tennessee by 2040. This strong, sustained growth pushed retail rents up more than 50 percent since 2010 and represents one of the largest cumulative increases in the nation, behind only Miami and Austin. In 2019, the Nashville region saw asking rents above the national average, according to CoStar Group. One year ago, the sudden and unexpected COVID-19 shutdowns made the collective hearts of 2008 survivors skip a beat. A real concern of what the next week or month might look like hit both landlords and tenants in the region, particularly in the downtown retail district that is historically reliant on tourism. As music …

April 5, 2021

Market Reports Multifamily Texas Texas Market Reports

Texas Multifamily Developers Navigate New Minefields

by Taylor Williams April 2, 2021

By Taylor Williams The past 12 months have thrown multifamily developers a full nine innings’ worth of curveballs, and while many owner-operators have successfully adjusted to the various challenges brought on by the pandemic, they are still tasked with figuring out how much staying power these disruptions will ultimately have. To be sure, the major markets of Texas remain well-positioned for multifamily growth. Even amid a global health crisis, the Lone Star State has maintained its status as a national leader in population growth, having added 374,000 residents between July 2019 and 2020, according to the most current data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The reporting of final census numbers for 2020 has been delayed by the pandemic. But the Texas Legislature has already committed to a redistricting plan that is likely to increase the state’s number of congressional representatives in the coming years — a significant and visible response to its exceptionally healthy population growth. In terms of jobs, no city has garnered more attention for major moves in the past 12 months than Austin, first landing the $1 billion Tesla Gigafactory that will come on line later this year, then receiving a commitment from Oracle to relocate its …

April 2, 2021

Illinois Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports Office

The Future of Chicago’s CBD Is Slowly Coming into Focus

by Kristin Harlow April 1, 2021

By Jeff Mulder, Colliers International Chicago By now, we all know that the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc across the world, affecting life as we knew it in the most unexpected ways. Our business, the business of office space, has been hit hard as companies almost instantly deferred or canceled real estate decisions and switched to work-from-home. The average occupancy of buildings in Chicago’s central business district (CBD) is currently 8.2 percent, according to the Building Owners and Managers Association. One year in, and corporations are still trying to determine the best path forward and what that will look like. But evidence of change, and some signs of what the future will look like, are slowly coming into focus. One noteworthy and reliable data point is sublease space. Colliers research reports that in the 20-plus-year history of Chicago’s office market, vacant sublease space offerings rise and peak within two to four quarters following major financial crises like the 2002 Tech Wreck and the 2009 Great Financial Crisis. Following these trends, current sublease space offerings in Chicago’s CBD have more than doubled since March 2020. Typically in the past, tenants in the market quickly absorbed sublease spaces that were offered — …

April 1, 2021

Industrial Market Reports Texas Texas Market Reports

Demand Surges Throughout East Houston’s Industrial Market

by Taylor Williams March 31, 2021

By Travis Secor, senior associate, JLL Nationally, e-commerce and warehouse supply have been the center of the industrial real estate conversation. It’s easy to get lost in the latest data related to the impact of COVID-19 and speculation on where a major online retailer’s newest distribution centers will land. Houston has received its share of the industrial real estate spotlight over the years. The narrative over the past decade will tell a story about the wild vacancy swings experienced through each development cycle, always in perfect harmony with the boom-and-bust oil reputation the city has crafted over the years. Current headlines highlight the possibility of another major glut in warehouse supply resulting from our latest development binge. While the case for an overbuilt market has major validity, you cannot broadly paint Houston’s industrial sector like that. To understand the complexities and nuances of Houston’s industrial market, it’s important to know the unique personalities of each geographic submarket and the events that shaped it. Northeast Houston When oil prices fell to around $10 per barrel in the late 1980s, commercial real estate professionals might not have been bullish on the absorption prospects for the industrial development spree that had taken place …

March 31, 2021

Affordable Housing Market Reports Multifamily Seniors Housing Southeast Southeast Market Reports Student Housing Tennessee

Multifamily Investors Await Clarity on Nashville’s Economic Recovery

by John Nelson March 29, 2021

Owners and buyers remain apart on pricing. Unlike some densely populated urban areas where the extent of the damage to local commercial real estate operations is unknown, the gap in Nashville persists due to uncertainty regarding the upside potential rather than downside risks. Owners are hesitant to list properties because the metro remains a safe portion of their portfolios. If this disconnect persists, pricing will return to pre-recession levels before many other areas of the country. In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, multifamily transactions slowed to almost a standstill. However, transaction velocity picked back up and made a strong rebound between the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Although total sales volume dropped from $1.9 billion in 2019 to $1.6 billion in 2020, it was still the third-highest sales output since 2010 and cap rates averaged 5 percent, down 28 basis points year-over-year. California-based investors represent the lion’s share of investment activity, purchasing over $650 million of assets in Nashville in 2020. We are seeing more cities buying into Nashville such as Virginia-based Snell Properties, which purchased Retreat at Iron Horse in the Nashville suburb of Franklin for $306,000 per-unit in September. San Antonio-based Embrey developed the Class …

March 29, 2021

Indiana Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports Multifamily

Destination Indianapolis: the Midwest Market Attracting National Interest

by Kristin Harlow March 25, 2021

By Chris Bruzas, Berkadia Like all markets, Indianapolis is hoping for a return to more normal investment activity for commercial real estate in 2021. So far, the signs are positive, especially for the multifamily sector. The end of 2020 saw a pickup in multifamily sales activity nationally, a result of strong appetite from sidelined capital, continued positive collections trends and occupancy trends, and positive signals from the vaccine rollout. Demand forecasts Indianapolis has steadily been gaining favor with investors, given its economic stability, steady population growth and growing renter interest in secondary and tertiary markets. According to Berkadia’s 2021 forecast, Indianapolis continues to set the standard for urban renewal and economic development. Regional job creation, including at Bottleworks District, Indiana University Health and Amazon, continue to attract new residents. More than 13,000 apartment units were delivered in the past five years with demand continuing to rise. At the end of 2020, occupancy in the metro area was at 95.1 percent, reaching a 20-year peak. Underpinning healthy apartment occupancy is housing demand created by a consistent net migration of about 12,000 people annually and rising household formation. Current opportunities Like the rest of the country, Indianapolis continues to feel the impact …

March 25, 2021

Development Market Reports New Jersey Northeast Market Reports

Not Urban, Not Suburban: Why Surban Living is Here to Stay

by Taylor Williams March 25, 2021

By Lenny Tartamella, COO of Larken Associates Since the moment the first subdivision was built, the debate defining the residential and multifamily development process has been centered around the core question of, “Where do people want to live?” As we look to answer this question in 2021, the answer is not as clear as it seemed only several years ago. It is obvious that the living preferences of millennials — those born between 1981 and 1996 who at 70 million now represent the largest segment of the U.S. adult population — and the generation after them, Gen Z, will be a key piece of the answer. Similarly, and not to be forgotten when we are answering this question, the preferences of seniors and those nearing retirement age will also factor heavily into how our multifamily communities continue to evolve. While the differences between those two groups already make answering the core question behind multifamily development difficult, the COVID-19 pandemic and its disruption to how we live, work and play have only added further complexity to the answer. However, as we move towards a post-pandemic future of a live-work-play lifestyle, a new word is entering our lexicon that precisely defines where this …

March 25, 2021

Market Reports Office Texas Texas Market Reports

Despite Current Pain, Long-Term Needs for Office Space Won’t Disappear in Houston

by Taylor Williams March 24, 2021

By Dustin Devine, vice president, Avison Young In 2020, COVID-19 further compounded the issues Houston’s office market was facing with depressed oil and gas prices. With many office users implementing work-from-home policies — although a shift back to the office is in progress — and minimal business travel, there was weak demand for office space in 2020. Houston’s office market is expecting a resurgence of sorts beginning in mid- to late-2021 due to increased vaccine rollouts and work-from-home burnout, along with commodity prices continuing to tick upward. Increased demand will not occur overnight, however, as it will take years to absorb all of the current available space. Most activity at present is expiration-driven. Although Houston’s economy today is more diversified than it was in the 1980s, much of the city’s business either revolves around or touches the oil and gas industry. Avison Young’s recent Office Market Report shows that current citywide office availability is over 25 percent, with nearly 6.5 million square feet of sublease space available. With availability rates and the amount of sublease inventory at such high levels, it is clear that many industries are hurting, including commercial real estate. As a firm, we are doing whatever we …

March 24, 2021

Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Nashville’s Office Pipeline Remains Robust to House Relocating, Expanding Firms

by John Nelson March 22, 2021

In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Nashville weathered tornadoes that traveled through its core in the first quarter and a bomb explosion on 2nd Avenue North in the fourth quarter. Both catastrophes destroyed commercial properties. Despite these events last year, the fundamentals that make Nashville a strong office market remain unchanged. Nashville stays a magnet for corporate relocations, most recently attracting multiple companies from California. According to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce data, The Daily Wire, Design Lab, N2M Advisory and Revance Therapeutics announced relocations in the second half of 2020. These announcements encompass over 100,000 square feet of office to be occupied and 540 jobs total. Industry experts surveyed by Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report ranked Nashville as the No. 3 “Market to Watch in 2021.” This is Nashville’s sixth consecutive year in the top 10. The report credits Nashville’s attractive business climate, affordable cost of living and speed of recovery post-COVID-19. The report names Nashville as one of six new boomtowns as it’s a top in-migration market that is attracting a large share of smart young workers. Additionally, ULI and PwC acknowledge that Nashville …

March 22, 2021

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