Thursday, November 21, 2024
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Southeast Market Reports

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Store Closures Lead to ‘Right-Sizing’ as Vacancy Rates Tighten in Raleigh-Durham

by John Nelson

As someone who has closely observed retail trends in the Southeastern United States for decades, I’ve witnessed the inevitable ebb and flow of the industry. From periods of rapid expansion to challenging market corrections, and of course, global pandemics that disrupted every sector of real estate, it often feels as though I’ve ‘seen it all.’ Once again, I find myself watching the market adjust, particularly among big-box retailers, in high-growth areas like Raleigh. This ongoing shift signals both challenges and opportunities, reminding me of the resilience and adaptability required to thrive in this dynamic environment. When news broke in September that Big Lots Inc. had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and that it would be closing more than 300 stores across the country, it wasn’t all that shocking, given the sheer number of Big Lots that one comes across just driving across their own towns. The Big Lots announcement follows similar moves by companies such as rue21, Express, The Body Shop, 99 Cents Only Stores, LL Flooring, Conn’s, and Red Lobster. Retailers like Rite Aid and Bed Bath & Beyond, which filed for bankruptcy last year, have closed hundreds of stores, causing vacancies in the retail real estate market. …

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LouisianaMarket ReportsMultifamilySoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

New Orleans’ Multifamily Markets Sees Diminishing Impact From ‘Three I’s’

by John Nelson

In our state of the market overview  article in Southeast Real Estate Business October 2023, we defined three challenges in the metro New Orleans multifamily market. These are interest rates, inflation and insurance — or as we dubbed them “the three I’s.” Not to be redundant; however, a year later these elements are still very much factors in the current market and continue to define how multifamily assets are acquired, sold, financed and developed. There is, however, reason for optimism as each of these defining elements has diminished, albeit not completely, from where they were 12 months ago. Interest rates — On Sept. 18, the Federal Reserve reduced short-term rates by 50 basis points — the first reduction in four years. More importantly was the decline in the rate of the 10-year Treasury yield, which is what most multifamily loans are priced from. As of this writing, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.76 percent, the lowest it has been in the past 16 months.  A further reason for optimism is the fact that the Fed has indicated the potential for four rate cuts next year. There is also the anticipation of further clarity in the capital markets once the …

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IndustrialLouisianaMarket ReportsSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Economic Headwinds, Rising Costs Affect Industrial Market in Greater New Orleans

by John Nelson

Despite healthy local market dynamics, the greater New Orleans industrial market did not perform as strongly as insiders expected it to perform over the past 12 months, which is indicative of wider economic factors suppressing a market with pent-up demand.  The Port of New Orleans and its access to major shipping routes along the Mississippi River has long been the principal component for industrial real estate in the area. The recent 2024 regular session of the Louisiana Legislature committed $230.5 million to Port of New Orleans infrastructure projects, including allocations to the Louisiana International Terminal, a $1.8 billion project in Violet, La., scheduled to be operational in 2028, which will be the Gulf South’s premier container shipping gateway able to accommodate New Panamax- and Post New Panamax-sized vessels.  A bit further up the Mississippi River but still in the greater New Orleans region, Canadian company Woodland Biofuels announced a $1.35 billion investment at the Port of South Louisiana in Reserve, La., to establish the largest renewable natural gas plant in the world. The facility will take waste wood and sugar cane and turn it into natural gas. The process will be carbon-negative, leaving less carbon in the atmosphere than before …

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LouisianaMarket ReportsOfficeSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Challenges Unfortunately Outweigh Opportunities for New Orleans Office Market

by John Nelson

A combination of short sales, declining occupancy rates, loan concerns and migration to suburban offices contribute to uncertainty in the New Orleans office market. As we approach the fourth quarter of this year and begin to reflect back on the market in 2024, the challenges unfortunately outweigh the opportunities. Two notable cases include The DXC Technology Center and The Energy Centre.  The DXC Technology Center, located at 1615 Poydras St. in the Central Business District (CBD), a once-prized office tower anchored by Freeport McMoRan, sold for less than $37 per square foot. The building, over 500,000 square feet, traded for $18.5 million, significantly below the remaining debt on the property. The New Orleans Police Department recently signed a lease to occupy approximately 45,000 square feet in the building, which lessens the steep decline in the building’s value. The Energy Centre, located at 1100 Poydras St., is one of the most desirable and best-performing Class A towers in the CBD. It entered receivership, but the building is back on track and is rumored to be nearing a sale. The building owner, The Hertz Group, controls four additional Class A office towers on Poydras St. (400, 650, 701 & 909 Poydras St.), …

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KentuckyMarket ReportsMultifamilySoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Positive Rent Growth Makes Louisville Multifamily Market Stand Out From the Pack

by John Nelson

Amidst economic uncertainty, Louisville stands out for its resilience, establishing itself as a stalwart in today’s market. According to Apartments.com, Louisville ranked No. 1 in the nation for rent growth in the second quarter of 2024. Factors such as Louisville’s non-cyclical job growth, expanding industries including EV production and the burgeoning River Ridge project in Southern Indiana all contribute to its growth.  When we inspect the data, we see a basic yet fundamental market factor at play: supply and demand. Louisville’s supply is low relative to the growth in renters, resulting in upward pressure on rents despite a nationwide market that is largely declining.  Supply dynamics The bulk of Louisville’s development pipeline is concentrated in Southern Indiana, with 1,039 units under construction in the Jeffersonville submarket. The Southern Indiana region has experienced solid growth with over 10,500 incoming jobs due to the economic activity from River Ridge. River Ridge Commerce Center reported an economic impact of $2.93 billion for calendar year 2023, up over $2.7 billion compared with 2022, according to Inside INdiana Business. Notable development projects in Southern Indiana include: • The Flats on 10th, 3300 Schosser Farm Way (300-units by Schuler Bauer Real Estate) • The Warren, 4501 …

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KentuckyMarket ReportsOfficeSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Louisville’s Office Market Is a Tale of Two Sectors: Suburbs and the CBD

by John Nelson

The Louisville office market is at an interesting crossroads, to say the least. Historically, the sector has always skewed toward the suburban submarkets as east Jefferson County has been the go-to area for companies looking for office space.  Over the past few years, the shift to the suburbs has become more pronounced than ever as Louisville’s office market experiences a dramatic contrast between the current state of the overall office market in the suburbs versus the central business district (CBD). In the suburban markets, the premier office buildings are experiencing low vacancy rates and record-setting growth in rental rates.  On the opposite side, the CBD continues to struggle with increases in vacancy rates, which is expected to increase in the coming months. This trend reflects overall national office trends as companies focus on new, highly amenitized spaces to offer their employees. Suburban Louisville The suburban office market in Louisville has demonstrated reliable stability over the past four years. As of second-quarter 2024, the vacancy rate for Class A spaces stood at 12.7 percent, while Class B spaces recorded a higher rate of 17.2 percent.  The suburban market has seen limited new construction deliveries thus far in 2024. The most notable …

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KentuckyMarket ReportsRestaurantRetailSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Louisville’s Retail Scene Remains a Bright Spot Despite Economic Headwinds

by John Nelson

Louisville’s economy remains resilient, and regional economic growth is creating a strong foundation for the retail market. Greater Louisville Inc. recently announced that 72 businesses are considering relocating or expanding to the region, with the potential of 8,200 new jobs and $3.8 billion in economic investment. Louisville is well-positioned for growth and the retail outlook remains strong with historically low vacancy rates. The market’s expanding consumer base and resilient economy have mostly overcome headwinds such as interest rate fluctuations, volatility in capital markets and signs of a slowing economy. This resilience has put Louisville in a strong position moving into the last quarter of 2024.  At the end of the second quarter, Louisville’s vacancy rate stood at a strong 3.4 percent, outperforming the national benchmark of 4.1 percent, according to CoStar Group. The limited amount of new retail construction over the past 18 months has played a significant role in keeping the vacancy rate low. In fact, only roughly 322,000 square feet of retail space has been delivered over the past 12 months. Grocers are pushing leasing activity, making up 36 percent of the leasing volume that past 12 months. These retailers are executing most of the activity in spaces …

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FloridaGeorgiaMarket ReportsNorth CarolinaSouth CarolinaSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsStudent Housing

Universities, Student Housing Properties in Southeast Contend with Hurricane Helene

by John Nelson

Hurricane Helene made landfall in Northwestern Florida on Thursday, Sept. 26, after being upgraded to a major Category 3 storm that afternoon. Widespread damage across a number of Southeastern states followed in its wake, with many areas experiencing flooding, downed trees, power outages and road closures. At least 175 people have died across six states, according to reports by CNN and The New York Times, and officials fear that the death toll is likely to rise with many remaining missing.  Hundreds of roads remain closed across the Southeast — especially in Western North Carolina and East Tennessee, which were hit particularly hard by the hurricane — hampering the delivery of supplies, and more than 2 million customers remain without power. Student Housing Business reached out to universities, owners, operators and students across the Southeast to check in on how they fared during the storm and their experience in the aftermath.  Owners, Operators Weigh In Denver-based Cardinal Group tracked its communities in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia through Hurricane Helene.  “Of those communities, four experienced power outages and several had minor roof leaks and flooding, with the largest impact felt in Asheville and Boone, North Carolina,” says Jenn Cassidy, president of property operations …

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IndustrialKentuckyMarket ReportsSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Louisville’s Industrial Market Is Entering ‘Slow-Paced Cooldown’ Period of Market Cycle

by John Nelson

The Louisville industrial market has simmered at a slow and steady pace during 2024. Continued uncertainty with debt markets, inflation and the upcoming elections have placed developers on the sidelines, and occupiers in a holding pattern.  Despite how the market feels today, Louisville remains poised for a comeback. A brief overview shows how and why the Louisville market is in the position it is today, and what to expect beyond 2024.  The past five years reveal a compelling story, one that developers, occupiers and investors alike have come to understand as they seek to develop, lease or own real estate in the Derby City. Driving much of this development and occupier activity in Louisville is the presence of the UPS Worldport, two Ford manufacturing plants, Haier’s GE Appliance Park and other manufacturers that keep suppliers, third-party logistics firms and e-commerce companies jockeying for space.  Louisville’s central location on the I-65 corridor and proximity to two-thirds of the U.S. population are also key reasons the market continues to grow as a hub for logistics, e-commerce and manufacturing. The market saw tremendous growth over the past five years, assisted by the space grab during COVID.  Since 2019 bulk inventory experienced growth of …

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FloridaMarket ReportsMultifamilySoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Orlando Multifamily Makes a Comeback as Market Conditions Improve

by John Nelson

Orlando’s multifamily market has experienced softened conditions lately due to a record amount of new supply being built, as well as economic challenges impacting commercial real estate as a whole. Yet, green shoots have emerged as insurance costs continue to ease and interest rates remain steady with downward pressure. Both overall sentiment and renter demand have steadily improved as well.  Properties in the multifamily space seeing the most interest these days are those that are high-quality and well-located. Two key multifamily sale transactions that occurred in the second quarter of 2024 were in the Southwest Orlando submarket. This includes the 424-unit Osprey Links at Hunter’s Creek property that sold for $100.6 million, which marked Orlando’s largest multifamily sale this year, and the 296-unit Sonceto Apartments property that sold for $71 million.  Investors are flooding back into the market with increasingly more aggressive offers and heightened competition as a result of the still limited available multifamily inventory and notion that supply levels have peaked.  However, additional supply will still enter the market in the years to come as developers maintain a positive outlook on Orlando with just over 2,000 units across six buildings delivered by the end of the second quarter …

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