Southeast Market Reports Archives - REBusinessOnline

Scarcity Shapes Strategy: How Tight Vacancy Is Redefining Retail in Raleigh

John Nelson — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 12:32:00 +0000

If there is one defining characteristic of the Raleigh-Durham retail market today, it is scarcity. Exceptionally low vacancy — especially in high-quality, well-located centers — has become the norm rather than the exception, fundamentally reshaping leasing dynamics, rent growth and development strategy across the region. As of third-quarter 2025, overall retail vacancy in Raleigh-Durham stood at approximately 2.4 percent, marking four consecutive years below the 3 percent threshold. Even more telling, spaces under 10,000 square feet posted vacancy closer to 1.8 percent, underscoring just how competitive conditions have become for local and regional tenants. This imbalance between demand and supply has placed landlords in a position of sustained leverage, particularly in grocery-anchored centers, strong neighborhood and lifestyle shopping centers or mixed-use environments. Low vacancy matters because it drives outcomes. Lease-ups are happening faster, concessions are increasingly rare in top trade areas and rents continue to trend upward. For tenants, especially those seeking smaller footprints, waiting to engage often means missing opportunities altogether. For owners, the market rewards proactive asset management and disciplined tenant selection. A clear example of this dynamic is Olde Raleigh Village, a grocery-anchored community shopping center that is currently 100 percent leased. With no vacancy to contend…

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Has the Raleigh-Durham Office Market Hit Rock Bottom?

John Nelson — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 12:49:00 +0000

The Raleigh/Durham office market is not yet in full recovery mode; however, the latest data suggests something just as important: stabilization. Compared to many U.S. office markets still experiencing significant stress, Raleigh-Durham is holding its ground — and in several respects, outperforming national trends. Currently, the combined Raleigh-Durham office market totals approximately 118.7 million square feet, with Raleigh making up roughly two-thirds of the inventory and Durham the remainder. Together, they form one of the Southeast’s most dynamic and resilient office regions. Vacancy elevated, improving While higher than pre-pandemic norms, vacancy is trending better than many peer markets. Raleigh’s vacancy rate currently sits around 11.1 percent, while Durham’s vacancy rate is approximately 9.8 percent, according to research from CoStar Group. Combined, this market boasts a blended office vacancy rate of roughly 10.7 percent, well below the 14.1 percent national average. Over the past 12 months, Raleigh recorded positive net absorption of approximately 574,000 square feet, while Durham experienced negative absorption of about 480,000 square feet. Combined, the market landed near equilibrium, which sends an encouraging signal that the market is no longer sliding backward, even if growth remains uneven. The area’s post-pandemic growth is shaped by hybrid work models, changing…

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Strong Industrial Fundamentals, Smart Supply Fuel Momentum in the Triangle

John Nelson — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 12:56:00 +0000

The Triangle’s industrial market continues to hold strong fundamentals heading into the new year. A disciplined construction pipeline, low vacancy and high absorption fuel the market’s steady success. Disciplined constructionIndustrial developers have been incredibly disciplined when delivering new product to the Raleigh-Durham market, which has kept vacancy below 7 percent — a significantly stronger rate than peer Sun Belt markets as a result of record levels of development in recent years. With absorption rates in the Triangle averaging nearly 3 million square feet per year in the past five years, this healthy rate of delivery and absorption has propped up the region’s industrial market. That being said, the Raleigh-Durham market infill land supply has its limitations. Industrial-zoned land is difficult to find and acquisition costs are pushing $500,000 per acre in some submarkets, and rezoning is a lengthy 12-month or longer process. For these projects to be financially viable, developers have been increasing rents year-over-year to an average of over $12 per square foot across all submarkets, up from roughly $6 just five years ago. Many institutional occupiers have been willing to pay a premium to be in new, Class A space in these infill areas, but other occupiers are…

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Supply Drought: Why Triangle’s Multifamily Market Is About to Turn the Corner

John Nelson — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:23:00 +0000

After nearly three years of wrestling with oversupply, Raleigh-Durham’s multifamily market stands at an inflection point that informed investors have been quietly anticipating. The numbers tell a compelling story: construction starts plummeted from around 15,000 units in 2022 to roughly 2,000 in 2024, a staggering 86 percent decline that’s creating the supply drought the market desperately needed. The timing couldn’t be more critical. With an 18-month construction timeline followed by 12 to 16 months of lease-up process, the wave of deliveries from those record 2022 starts peaked in early-to-mid-2025. What comes next is perhaps the most interesting chapter in the Triangle’s multifamily story since our record rent jumps of 2021. Mathematics of recovery The construction cycle’s predictable timeline creates a unique visibility into market dynamics that astute capital allocators are already pricing in. The minimal 2024 starts are translating directly into minimal deliveries stretching from late 2025 through 2028 and beyond, which is essentially a three-year window of supply constraint that stands in stark contrast to the flood of new inventory and increased concessions that plagued 2023 to 2025. Meanwhile, demand fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Gross absorption hit approximately 11,000 units in 2024 and is tracking toward another 10,000 (estimated)…

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Port Authorities Advance the Southeast’s Industrial Sector With Infrastructural Investments

John Nelson — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 12:39:00 +0000

In 2022, the Port of New Orleans (Port NOLA) announced the Louisiana International Terminal (LIT), a new $1.8 billion container terminal coming to Violet, a small city about 10 miles downriver (or south) from New Orleans in St. Bernard Parish. The project is a public-private partnership between Port NOLA and two private maritime industry leaders, Ports America and Terminal Investment Ltd., and is being funded with private capital and public funding from the State of Louisiana and federal sources. The U.S. Army Corps. of Engineers is managing LIT’s environmental review and permitting process, after which the public-private partnership will begin construction. Set for completion in 2028, the ambitious project is expected to generate 18,000 new jobs by 2050 and handle 2 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of cargo traffic annually. “I consider it the most important project in the entire region,” says Andrew Marcus, founder of local commercial real estate services firm Agile Coast. “From an economic development perspective and from a quality-of-life perspective, it is the single-most important project for our region, period. The LIT is going to be the beachhead for getting modernized containerized cargo ships to come in, and we have the ability to have several terminals…

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Raleigh-Durham’s Multifamily Market Is Normalizing Following Several Quarters of Softness

John Nelson — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:18:00 +0000

The Raleigh-Durham region continues to be one of the premier pockets of growth in the Southeast, thanks to robust employment opportunities and a steady pipeline of renters graduating from area schools including Duke University, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University. Multifamily developers have been more than eager to help satiate the demand for housing in the area in recent years. According to Yardi Matrix, the Raleigh-Durham region had nearly 14,500 apartments deliver in 2024. The research platform also reported that approximately 8,600 more units came on line in the first three quarters of 2025, which represents a 4.2 percent growth rate compared to the market’s existing inventory. Like many of its peer markets in the Sun Belt, the Raleigh-Durham region is working its way through the excess supply, which is extending the lease-up period for newer properties. “For projects delivered in late 2023 into early 2024, absorption has slowed compared to historical norms,” says Lisa Narducci-Nix, director of business and property development at Drucker + Falk. Southeast Real Estate Business recently caught up with Narducci-Nix to discuss the health of the Raleigh-Durham apartment market, as well as larger operational trends. The following is an edited interview:…

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Demand for Trophy Buildings Sets the Tone for D.C.’s Office Market

John Nelson — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 12:48:00 +0000

Fundamental macroeconomic changes in the U.S. office market, combined with the enduring resilience of Washington, D.C., make this a unique moment for investment in the region’s office sector. Forward-thinking, data-driven analysis will uncover unprecedented opportunities. Persistent flight-to-quality trends continue to drive a polarization of the D.C. office market more severely than the national average, with trophy vacancy lower and commodity vacancy higher than the overall U.S. office market. Recent sharp federal government cutbacks have caused uncertainty throughout 2025, driving additional occupancy loss in the commodity segment of the market, while a resilient private sector shows seemingly endless demand for top-quality space. Overall, midsized and large private sector tenants in the market plan to grow by an aggregate 350,000 square feet. Expected growth will be driven by law firms, higher education institutions, business and financial services firms and trade associations, including several new-to-market tenants. As a result, standard Class A and B/C vacancy rates are hovering at historic highs of 24 percent and 26 percent, respectively, while trophy vacancy sits at a historic low of 10.2 percent. The overwhelming majority of large and mid-sized blocks of top-quality space are also encumbered. If trophy space continues to be absorbed at the same…

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Has D.C.’s Industrial Sector Shifted to a Tenant’s Market?

John Nelson — Mon, 05 Jan 2026 12:50:00 +0000

As 2025 closes, data suggests that the greater metropolitan Washington, D.C., area is stable but, like most markets nationally, remains below the industrial peak values achieved post-pandemic when vacancy rates hovered below 5 percent. That is no surprise, as we may never experience another “perfect storm” scenario in our lifetimes. The overall market for industrial buildings 100,000 square feet and larger is a healthy 6.3 percent, inclusive of data centers. A significant percentage of vacancy is masked by the build-out of data centers in Northern Virginia because, removing this asset class, the vacancy increases to approximately 9.1 percent. The number increases closer to 10 percent when we focus more specifically on logistics spaces, according to data from CoStar Group. Confidence remains strong for leasing activity in larger Class A industrial buildings, but the underlying economic fundamentals, uncertainty in tariff policy and geopolitical instability could lead to a continued trend of higher vacancy rates in the future. Consumer spending underpins the economy and is increasingly dependent on wealthier households who account for the majority of spending. Low- and middle-income households have continued to be squeezed by the rising costs of food, fuel and housing, which impacts the demand for shipped, manufactured…

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Tariffs Are Moving the Needle for Manufacturing, Distribution Demand on the I-85 Industrial Corridor

John Nelson — Tue, 23 Dec 2025 12:31:00 +0000

More than seven months have passed since Liberation Day, where the Trump administration declared a sweeping package of tariffs for foreign trade partners and specific commodities, including steel and aluminum. Since the announcement in early April, there has been a boon in the amount of multibillion-dollar advanced manufacturing, life sciences, semiconductor and data center investment announcements around the country, with the markets along the I-85 Industrial Corridor being no exception. To name a few: Toyota has recently begun production at its $13.9 billion battery plant in Liberty, N.C.; Rivian broke ground on its $5 billion electric vehicle plant near Social Circle, Ga.; JetZero is planning to create 14,500 jobs for an aerospace manufacturing facility in Greensboro, N.C.; Eli Lilly is developing a $5 billion pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in the Richmond suburb of Goochland County, Va.; and Google is developing a trio of data centers in metro Richmond’s Chesterfield County. “We have incredible momentum bringing business back into the United States, which is going to drive industrial growth, particularly in the Southeast,” says Jim Anthony, CEO and founder of APG Companies. “We’re not unionized, we have lower taxes, fewer regulations and lower cost of energy, which is huge factor in site…

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D.C. Retail Remains a Great Opportunity, If You Know Where to Look

John Nelson — Mon, 22 Dec 2025 14:33:27 +0000

The Washington, D.C., commercial real estate market is intricate, shaped by broad economic trends and local dynamics. The recent federal government shutdown underscored ongoing challenges, intensifying uncertainty and slowing local transactions. Continued ambiguity around trade and tariff policies further complicates business planning, adding to the region’s cautious dealmaking environment. Anxiety affects the region’s key economic source: federal workers and contractors, who make up 40 percent of its economy. Since January 2025, federal job losses here have outpaced the national average, increasing the risk of a local slowdown. Despite the area’s wealth, ongoing job uncertainty should guide all investment and operational choices. The interplay between federal employment trends and local business activity means that investors and operators must remain vigilant, adapting strategies to respond to shifting workforce dynamics and consumer sentiment. Tale of two marketsThe D.C. retail market is split: downtown faces challenges due to office vacancies and low weekday traffic, while suburban and residential-heavy urban areas are thriving. Affluent spots in Northern Virginia and Suburban Maryland have the lowest vacancy rates thanks to stable local shoppers. These areas benefit from consistent foot traffic and resilient spending patterns, which help insulate them from broader economic volatility. From a capital markets perspective,…

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Steady Amid Constraints: The Greater New Orleans Industrial Market

John Nelson — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 12:56:00 +0000

The Greater New Orleans industrial real estate market in 2025 is characterized by steady but cautious demand, where a persistent lack of new supply continues to limit product availability and constrain tenant options despite a user base that shows signs of wanting to grow. While local prospects for business are good, tenants seem to be keeping a wary eye on national economic trends. Interest rates have increased borrowing costs, prompting tenants to delay expansions and relocations as they navigate tighter budgets. Decision making is further slowed by uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and their possible effects on material costs that could ripple through supply chains. High insurance premiums in a region affected by hurricanes force operators to reallocate funds from growth initiatives to coverage. Construction costs remain elevated; combined with a scarcity of viable development sites, speculative builds are extremely rare, which keeps inventory tight. These headwinds, some of which should sound familiar in other markets around the country, have slowed deal velocity, though there are projects in the works that can build momentum in South Louisiana. The $1.8 billion Louisiana International Terminal (LIT) in St. Bernard Parish, a public-private partnership with Ports America and Terminal Investment Ltd., begins construction in…

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New Orleans CBD Continues to Transition from Office-Centric to 24/7 Destination

John Nelson — Mon, 08 Dec 2025 12:31:00 +0000

One cannot talk about, analyze, nor understand the New Orleans Central Business District (CBD) office market without a corresponding discussion of the entire CBD, not just the office building submarket. This is especially true when we look at the evolution of the New Orleans CBD since the late 1980s, and, more specifically to this article, since Hurricane Katrina. The New Orleans CBD office market is still the largest office submarket in this region. The submarket contains approximately 10.3 million rentable square feet. The balance of our submarkets (East Metairie, West Metairie, Kenner, Elmwood, West Bank, New Orleans East and the Northshore) contain a total of 8.6 million rentable square feet. More importantly, the CBD remains home for most of New Orleans’ “corporate” tenants, virtually all the region’s major law firms and financial institutions. That is the good news. However, the CBD has been transformed over the past 30+ years — and especially for the past two decades after Hurricane Katrina — from a traditional office-centric CBD to a mixed-use downtown area. The supply of office space in the CBD has shrunk from 70 buildings and 16.5 million rentable square feet in 1991, to 50 buildings and 13.8 million rentable square…

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Richmond’s Industrial Market Is an Institutional Capital Darling

John Nelson — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 19:11:52 +0000

The Richmond industrial market has been undergoing a dramatic transformation that reads like a case study in strategic positioning and timing. Over the past decade, this “regional market” has become a U.S. powerhouse, boasting all the ingredients to attract, maintain and organically grow supply-chain focused global occupiers and institutional capital investment. Richmond’s strategic advantages include its prime location on I-95 — equidistant to both metropolitan D.C. and the Port of Virginia — attractive labor demographics, disciplined development and strong demand from Fortune 100 occupiers. Additionally, the surging data center hyperscalers and their suppliers have further catalyzed growth in the market. The result? Richmond now features one of the lowest U.S. vacancy rates, sustained year-over-year rent growth, a feeding frenzy of institutional capital routinely producing 10 to 15 bids and lender quotes per property that have fundamentally reshaped who owns, develops and finances industrial real estate in the market. From regional player to national stage Over the past decade, Richmond experienced a 68 percent increase in institutional investors and lenders, growing from 47 participants in 2015 to nearly 80 unique institutions that have invested in and loaned on Richmond industrial assets, with 50 cents of every dollar invested in Richmond coming from…

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Metro New Orleans Multifamily Market Remains Balanced 20 Years Post-Katrina

John Nelson — Mon, 01 Dec 2025 12:28:00 +0000

August 29, 2005 — a day no New Orleanian will forget: Hurricane Katrina. It has been two decades since the levees were breached and flood waters took over the city’s streets, homes and businesses. It was an event that changed the trajectory of the city of New Orleans. Twenty years later and the resiliency of New Orleans to always push on is evidenced by the stability of our multifamily market. Through a period of demolition, renovation and rebuilding, the overall market remains stable. The barriers to entry in the Metro New Orleans multifamily market are significant, and today as in the past, the equilibrium between supply and demand remains in sync. Like other Sun Belt markets, insurance premiums, interest rates and affordability are factors. However, they have not been a deterrent to the viability of the market or interest from investors and the capital markets. Our inventory of more than 55,000 units (professionally managed) spread out over seven parishes, remains strong. Overall metro occupancy is being reported between 92 to 94 percent with average rents of $1,300 per month. Parish by parish Eastern New Orleans and Algiers, which each have an inventory of approximately 4,000 units, offers the most affordable…

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Atlanta Multifamily Market: Signs of a Recovery After a Sharp Downturn

John Nelson — Mon, 24 Nov 2025 12:35:00 +0000

Atlanta’s multifamily market has been in a slump that would even make Braves fans wince. After peaking with record-breaking sales in 2021, volumes slid as borrowing costs climbed and supply piled up. But just like any good ballclub, the fundamentals matter, and the data suggests momentum is quietly building for a 2026 comeback season. Sales volume trends According to research from CoStar Group, institutional multifamily sales in Atlanta (transactions of $50 million or more) peaked in 2021 at $12.8 billion, driven by record pricing, historically low borrowing costs and robust rent growth. Since then, record supply, rising expenses and a sharp increase in borrowing costs have pushed sales volumes down by more than 70 percent, averaging just $3.5 billion annually over the past three years. While the broader U.S. economy has surged since 2022 — the S&P 500 has climbed 45 percent since fourth-quarter 2022 — commercial real estate has been searching for its bottom. Data now suggests that Atlanta has reached this inflection point, and history indicates increased activity and rising values in the years ahead. Parallels to the GFC Looking back at the global financial crisis (GFC) provides valuable context. The chart above (inflation-adjusted using Real Capital Analytics’…

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Exhibit on Atlanta Retail: Observations from Intown to the ‘Burbs

John Nelson — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 12:35:00 +0000

If you’ve spent any time driving around Atlanta recently, you’ve probably noticed something. More development sites are returning with bulldozers and developers are taking down land parcels in the suburbs the size of small European countries. But this time, the approach is more strategic than ever. Gone are the days when a developer would carve out a shopping center for base rents less than $40 per square foot and call it a day. Today, some metro Atlanta developers are assembling larger tracts and creating hybrid projects that include multifamily housing, storage and even industrial uses in the back of the parcel, saving the front-facing road frontage for ground leases, build-to-suits and limited shop space. Automotive and restaurants concepts are clamoring for pads. The result? Those once-overlooked “front and center” pad sites and strip centers are suddenly the belle of the ball. The downside is paying too much on the buy side for the dirt for aggressively low caps rates. But all I can say for the rental rates that I’m seeing is “Wow.” Restaurants still lead In Atlanta’s retail market, restaurants continue to be the leading driver of leasing activity. According to observations, excluding junior box space, food-and-beverage deals made…

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Atlanta Industrial Is Cooling and Consolidating, But Is Still Strategically Strong

John Nelson — Mon, 10 Nov 2025 12:40:00 +0000

After several years of breakneck growth, Atlanta’s industrial sector has clearly shifted into a mid-cycle recalibration. Vacancy has climbed to 8.4 percent, well above the 10-year average of 5.8 percent, as a record wave of big-box deliveries collides with softer demand. Twelve-month net absorption turned negative for the first time since 2011, dropping 453,000 square feet despite 14.9 million square feet of new deliveries over the past year. Developers and tenants alike are adjusting, but the region’s logistics advantages and diverse economy keep long-term fundamentals intact. Supply and demand The pandemic-era surge of speculative construction has decisively slowed. Construction starts have fallen roughly 70 percent from the five-year average, leaving 16.3 million square feet under construction, with just 25 percent available — down from 60 percent a year ago. Most large projects are now data centers, such as a 1.5 million-square-foot QTS facility in Fayette/Coweta County and a 1.2 million-square-foot Microsoft data center near Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. Vacancy is rising fastest in submarkets that saw heavy new supply. Kennesaw/Acworth, for example, has added over 9 million square feet since 2023 and now posts about 13 percent availability for buildings sized 200,000 square feet and larger. Sublease availability has grown…

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Pause or Prime Time? Atlanta’s Office Sector Is in Transition

John Nelson — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:15:00 +0000

Atlanta’s commercial office market is at a pivotal moment, caught between signs of stabilization and the lingering effects of a post-pandemic reset. Vacancy remains elevated, absorption is improving and tenant preferences continue to evolve — but fundamentals are beginning to shift as the market adjusts to the new workplace. Signs of a bottom? Hybrid work models, space optimization strategies and cautious expansions have elevated metro Atlanta’s office vacancy rates. Direct vacancy rates surpassed 24 percent for the first time and are hovering near all-time highs. Meanwhile, sublease availabilities have declined over 25 percent from their peak in 2023, and quality space remains difficult to find. The slowing pace of vacancy increases suggests the market may be nearing a turning point after recording negative annual absorption in four of the past five years. Net absorption, a key indicator for overall office sector health, totals negative 438,000 square feet, according to Colliers’ second-quarter 2025 report. While still in the red, this marks a significant improvement over previous years. Recent leasing activity suggests even more positive movement in the second half of the year, indicating that tenant departures are tapering and space givebacks are moderating. Leasing: quality vs. quantity Despite economic headwinds, leasing…

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Orlando’s Suburbs Show Strength With Big Office Deals, Activity

John Nelson — Mon, 27 Oct 2025 11:31:00 +0000

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Orlando office market had the first quarter of positive absorption in four years, according to a recent Colliers market report. The market, like many across the nation, has navigated a period of recalibration in the wake of the pandemic and evolving work trends. Yet, a shift in tenant activity has signaled renewed leasing demand across the office landscape. In the fourth quarter, net absorption in the Orlando office market reached a positive 95,843 square feet. This is a significant improvement compared to the same period in 2023, which had a negative absorption of 297,714 square feet. Interestingly, it is the submarkets outside of Orlando’s central business district (CBD) that are shining. This is evident in two recent deals that are having a profound impact on the market. In December, we represented the seller when Charles Schwab purchased the Maitland Summit Office Park for $122 million. This was the largest office deal in Central Florida since 2021 and removed 500,000 square feet of Class A office space from the Maitland submarket, which is about 10 miles north of downtown Orlando. Around the same time, Mitsubishi signed a lease for 109,000 square feet in Lake…

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Louisville’s Office Evolution Includes New Deals, Conversions

John Nelson — Mon, 20 Oct 2025 11:24:00 +0000

Louisville is a city full of history, charm and grit. We’re the birthplace of Muhammad Ali, home to the Kentucky Derby and the heart of America’s bourbon culture. As our city has grown, so have its business opportunities. Louisville’s geographic location, its logistics network and its diversified economy have attracted significant investment from global businesses to set down roots in recent years. In 2023, Louisville was named as a top 5 U.S. metro for economic development by Site Selection magazine with over $1 billion in capital investment and 2,300 new jobs that year alone. Louisville’s overall commercial real estate market has grown along with the population, but the office market has had a softer rebound following the pandemic than other markets nationally. Office overview In second-quarter 2025, Louisville had over 235,000 square feet of positive office leasing activity that was negated by over 256,000 square feet of negative net absorption, primarily due to large move-outs from office users in the city’s suburban submarkets. Leasing activity in Louisville’s Central Business District (CBD) has rebounded. In the second quarter, the submarket saw over 6,100 square feet of net positive absorption from Class A leasing activity, including the Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office lease…

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