Southeast Market Reports Archives - REBusinessOnline

Southwest Florida Industrial Market Is Primed for a Surge

John Nelson — Mon, 25 May 2026 11:45:00 +0000

When it comes to the Florida commercial real estate market, the conversation typically gravitates toward the larger metro areas. However, for those of us on the ground, it’s clear that Southwest Florida is becoming a key player in the state, particularly for industrial users. By nearly every measurable standard — population growth, job creation and infrastructure investment — Southwest Florida continues to outperform much of the United States. Industrial users and investors have taken notice, and so far in 2026, leasing activity has already outpaced all quarters in 2025. According to the latest Colliers market report, the market has absorbed 115,777 square feet of flex and industrial space in the first quarter alone, compared to fourth-quarter 2025 which saw (-189,303 square feet) of negative absorption. This is due to pent-up demand from users taking a cautious “wait-and-see” approach last year. And while the factors preventing them from making decisions in 2025 still exist, the sheer necessity of a physical presence in the area has finally outweighed the perceived risks. ‘Supply reset’ On paper, the data might give pause. Overall vacancy in Southwest Florida rose to 9.7 percent in first-quarter 2026, a sharp departure from the 7.2 percent we saw just…

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Retail Leasing, Development Activity ‘Slow and Steady’ in Baltimore Market

John Nelson — Mon, 18 May 2026 11:52:00 +0000

Mirroring conditions nationally due to elevated interest rates, associated higher construction costs and general economic and geopolitical uncertainties, the volume of retail leasing and new development activity remains “slow and steady” in the greater Baltimore metropolitan region. The collective business and real estate communities remain optimistic for a rebound later this year, given the robust fundamentals that remain constant locally and the lessons learned during a tepid first-quarter 2025, which was followed by an over-performing remainder of the year. We expect the same to occur in 2026, with robust third and fourth quarters on the horizon later this year. Interest rate complexities Although interest rates have declined somewhat over the past year, the continued elevated climate has made all phases of the retail industry more expensive and forced developers and retailers to take a brief pause or to dig deeper for projected returns. More specifically, this has placed a halt on the future development of several new shopping centers in the Baltimore area due to higher financing costs, and multiple local retailers are also rethinking expansion plans because of steeper Small Business Administration and local banking loans. Separate retail centers in Harford and Howard counties — after being designed and…

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Baltimore Industrial Recalibration: Driven by New Supply and Selective Leasing

John Nelson — Mon, 11 May 2026 11:47:00 +0000

Baltimore’s industrial market entered the first quarter of 2026 in what some are describing as a correctional rather than a contractional phase, with CoStar Group recently characterizing the market as undergoing a “sharp correction” driven by rising vacancy, elevated supply and slower leasing activity. Vacancy reports vary but the rate is hovering at approximately 9.7 percent as leasing teams worked to absorb approximately 3.2 million square feet of new deliveries over the past 12 months. Trailing absorption is negative at approximately 2.4 million square feet, reflecting a slowdown rather than a disappearance of demand, according to CoStar. New development pipelines remain active at 2.1 million square feet and new starts are moderating, signaling that developers are adjusting to conditions. In recent years, a series of events in Baltimore City made headlines and positioned the region in the worst possible way, and “Charm City” remains misunderstood in the minds of outsiders through the lens of these news articles. But, earlier this year, a substantial influx of institutional capital turned heads when making a decisive bet on the greater metropolitan area. A joint venture between Camber Real Estate Partners and PGIM Real Estate acquired a seven-building infill industrial portfolio at a 5.75…

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Birmingham’s Office Market: Stabilizing, Adapting and Gaining Momentum

John Nelson — Mon, 04 May 2026 11:42:00 +0000

We hear this question a lot: “How is commercial real estate doing in Birmingham?” Many people assume our market is experiencing the same volatility seen in national headlines over the past few years. The reality is a bit different. Birmingham is actually a stable market. While we certainly feel broader economic shifts, our office sector has avoided many of the dramatic swings seen in larger metro areas and is gradually positioning itself for future growth. To set the stage, Birmingham’s office market consists of approximately 18.8 million square feet of multi-tenant inventory across five submarkets, four of which include Class A properties. Overall absorption for fourth-quarter 2025 totaled negative 35,336 square feet following a positive third quarter. However, the market still finished the year with 56,786 square feet of positive net absorption. Occupancy remained largely stable throughout the year, with the overall vacancy rate holding at 19.8 percent. Direct vacancy improved slightly to 16.6 percent by year-end. Leasing activity also remained steady across the market. In total, 640,255 square feet of office space was leased in 2025, representing an approximately 14 percent increase compared to the amount of office space leased in 2024. Class A transactions accounted for more than…

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Selective Growth, Strategic Redevelopment Shape Birmingham’s Retail Market

John Nelson — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:42:00 +0000

Birmingham’s retail market continues to show steady momentum as it moves into a new phase, defined by limited supply, strong tenant demand in key corridors and a growing focus on open-air, lifestyle environments. While higher interest rates and construction costs slowed new development activity over the past couple of years, Birmingham’s most established retail corridors have remained active. Well-located centers continue to lease space quickly, and redevelopment opportunities are beginning to reshape several of the MSA’s outdated retail properties. One of the defining characteristics of Birmingham’s retail landscape today is the limited availability of high-quality space in prime locations. Much of the vacancy that emerged during the pandemic has been absorbed, particularly in grocery-anchored centers and lifestyle-oriented districts. As a result, retailers looking for space in established corridors often face a fairly competitive leasing environment. Demand remains strong among quick-service restaurants (QSRs), boutique fitness operators, medical and service retailers and fast-casual and high-end dining concepts. Birmingham’s suburban growth corridors and mixed-use environments offer many of these advantages, allowing landlords in the most desirable centers to maintain strong occupancy while gradually pushing rents higher. Lifestyle centers Open-air lifestyle environments continue to set the standard for Birmingham’s retail landscape. The best example…

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Downtown Supply Meets Suburban Stability in Birmingham’s Apartment Market

John Nelson — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 11:46:00 +0000

Conditions in Birmingham’s apartment market vary by submarket heading into 2026. Several recently completed developments downtown are still stabilizing, creating short-term leasing pressure, while suburban areas across the metro continue to see steady renter demand. Much of the new multifamily development in Birmingham over the past several years has been concentrated in the downtown core. As a result, many of these properties are still working through lease-ups. Marcus & Millichap research projects roughly 670 apartments will be delivered across the metro this year, with vacancy expected to hover around 6.1 percent and average effective rents near $1,302 per month. That level of supply has created temporary softness in parts of the downtown market. Some newly delivered communities are offering concessions during lease-up periods as owners compete for tenants. In certain cases, owners are choosing to refinance rather than bring assets to market while occupancy stabilizes. These conditions are typical when several projects deliver within the same submarket over a short period of time. Outside the city center, Birmingham’s suburban apartment submarkets continue to perform well. Cities including Homewood, Vestavia Hills and Hoover remain among the metro’s most stable suburbs. Shelby County cities, including Pelham and Alabaster, are also seeing consistent…

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Birmingham Industrial: Softness in Distribution, Resurgence in Manufacturing

John Nelson — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 11:17:00 +0000

The Birmingham industrial real estate market has remained relatively resilient compared to many U.S. markets, but recent trends show a shift in demand patterns with recent softness in the distribution sector compared to growing activity from manufacturing users. Overall market fundamentals remain stable. Birmingham continues to benefit from disciplined development and historically tight vacancies. Multi-tenant leased vacancy has generally remained well below national averages, hovering around the 5 percent range in the first half of 2025. Rent growth remains positive at about 3.5 percent annually. Renewing or vacant second-generation rents strategically lag new construction rents by about 15 to 20 percent. The second-generation base rent range is $6 to $7.50 per square foot depending on size, location and quality. Distribution and logistics demand has softened in recent months. Following the surge of warehouse construction and demand during the pandemic, leasing activity slowed by 2025. Approximately 1.3 million square feet of speculative space was delivered locally in 2022 and 2023, with asking rents at about $8 per square foot. The early deliveries benefited while the last projects to deliver were slower to lease as the economy stalled in the post-pandemic Biden era. Presently, 109,000 square feet of first-generation space delivered in…

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Upstate South Carolina Industrial Market Is Reaching an Inflection Point

John Nelson — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 11:43:00 +0000

The Upstate South Carolina industrial market is at an inflection point — an expected condition in a maturing and evolving market. Similar transitions have occurred in prior cycles and have consistently required lease rates to adjust more rapidly than traditional annual market escalations. These adjustments are driven by a combination of factors, including supply and demand dynamics, construction costs, capital markets and broader economic conditions. Currently, construction costs are the primary constraint impacting new deliveries. The post-COVID development surge resulted in over 30 million square feet of speculative industrial construction, a portion of which has yet to be fully absorbed. Today, we are approaching pre-COVID metrics with roughly 6.4 million square feet of speculative inventory (delivered or under construction) and an overall vacancy rate of approximately 7.3 percent. At this level, certain submarkets are at the point where additional speculative inventory will be required to meet tenant demand. The challenge lies in pricing. Much of the existing vacant space was delivered under a materially different construction cost structure, resulting in lease comps that do not reflect today’s construction and land costs. While incremental rent growth has occurred, it has not fully bridged the gap between legacy pricing and the economics…

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Mid-Atlantic Retail Market Is Experiencing Methodical Growth

John Nelson — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 11:40:00 +0000

Retail real estate across the Mid-Atlantic is having a moment — but it’s a disciplined one. As fundamentals remain healthy in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., the region is seeing a notably more selective approach to retail growth. Years of limited new development, zoning constraints and rising construction costs have tightened supply, pushing owners, investors and municipalities to be far more intentional about what gets built — and where. Sources interviewed for this article point to the sustained demand for well-located shopping centers, such as those anchored by strong tenants, daily-needs retailers and dense surrounding populations.“Retail today is about durability,” states Mike Castellitto, chief operating officer of Broad Reach Retail Partners. “Assets that serve essential, repeat-use visitors continue to outperform and attract both tenants and investors.” Shifting consumer preferences in VirginiaFrom Washington, D.C.’s dense suburban corridors to fast-growing secondary markets, Virginia’s retail real estate landscape remains one of the Mid-Atlantic’s steadiest performers. The Commonwealth’s strongest retail fundamentals are often seen in Northern Virginia and select regional hubs like metro Philadelphia, Virginia Beach and Richmond, where household income growth and population density create robust demand. Jim Ashby, senior vice president of the Retail Services Group at Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer,…

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Nashville Retail Market: Strength, Scarcity and Shifting Demand

John Nelson — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 11:55:00 +0000

Nashville’s retail market continues to outperform many peer metros across the Southeast, supported by steady population growth, a diversified employment base and a prolonged period of limited new supply. Despite broader economic uncertainty and rising operating costs, fundamentals across Middle Tennessee remain healthy, with vacancy holding near historically low levels. Tight conditions, leasing That strength is reflected in current occupancy trends. Retail vacancy throughout the region sits at approximately 3.6 percent, signaling sustained tenant demand within a constrained inventory environment. New construction has remained limited as elevated material and labor costs have pushed many proposed developments outside workable underwriting thresholds. As a result, existing centers, particularly well-located neighborhood and suburban assets, continue to capture consistent leasing activity. Core, emerging submarkets Demand remains strongest in Nashville’s core and established growth corridors, including Green Hills, Vanderbilt/West End, 12th South/Wedgewood-Houston, Charlotte Pike/Sylvan Park and the Cool Springs pocket of Franklin. These areas benefit from dense residential growth, strong household incomes and reliable consumer traffic, supporting above-average rent levels. At the same time, tightening availability and rising barriers to entry in the urban core have accelerated growth across surrounding satellite markets. Submarkets such as Lebanon, Clarksville, Murfreesboro and Smyrna have emerged as meaningful retail…

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Nashville’s Office Market Is Defined by Resiliency, Momentum

John Nelson — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 11:45:00 +0000

With office leasing and development, we’re always looking forward to the next big thing. Nashville’s office market is no exception to that. Sometimes no news is good news, though. That may be the case with the metro’s office development, where only four projects totaling 279,320 square feet were underway at the close of 2025 — 44.1 percent of which was preleased. At the beginning of 2020, Nashville’s construction pipeline was nearly 10 percent of its inventory size — the second-highest share out of any U.S. metro. Since then, 8.5 million square feet of office product has been delivered, and despite overlapping with a global pandemic, nearly 80 percent of it has been leased — underscoring the market’s appetite for quality office space. While that office space has not been absorbed as quickly as some had hoped, market trends and activity suggest that nearly 90 percent of it will be absorbed by the end of 2026, proving the Nashville office market’s resilience. As we approach the end of the first quarter, Nashville’s office market is off to a good start, despite some uncooperative icy weather. Although local tenants continue to lead occupancy growth, sizable multi-market requirements have continued to increase, pushing…

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How Mixed-Use Is Evolving in North Georgia

John Nelson — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 12:05:00 +0000

Mixed-use development across the Southeast continues to change and evolve. What was once as straightforward as building residential apartments located above a street-level retail component has become something far more sophisticated and intentional. Today’s mixed-use communities offer integrated, experience-driven environments where all elements of living, working, shopping, dining and recreation are thoughtfully curated, with connectivity as a primary focus. The North Georgia region, located approximately 40 miles north of Atlanta, is where residential demand is rising, incomes are growing and consumer preferences are changing. As these trends converge, developers seek the opportunity to create true neighborhood hubs in the area. The Crossing at Coal Mountain, located in Forsyth County, is a new 140-acre mixed-use destination by Atlantic Residential that reflects how development strategies are evolving in response to these market shifts. The project will feature walkable streets, activated green spaces, local dining, daily lifestyle services and a carefully programmed retail plaza alongside luxury homes being developed in partnership with national homebuilder Toll Brothers. Each of the project’s planned elements is designed to support a true live-work-play environment. Phase I of the project’s retail district is on track to open this year, positioning the development to contribute to the region’s broader…

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By Flipping the Script on Value Engineering, AI ‘Saves’ Arkansas Hotel Project

John Nelson — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 11:00:00 +0000

How did The Fay hotel in Fayetteville, Ark., save $500,000 mid-construction? How are other apartment, office and mixed-use developments doing the same, across the construction cycle? Developers are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to flip the script on the challenge of value engineering that often dumbs-down original design plans. Value engineering is almost a constant in the business: A project is designed and priced during the feasibility and entitlement stage but three, four or five years later when construction starts, prices have jumped while the budget is the same. And prices go up for many reasons, such as materials costs, labor costs or regulatory issues — even for import tariffs, as we’ve seen the past year. But maybe we’re blaming the wrong culprit in giving “value engineering” a negative connotation.Now it’s time for the procurement process to take its turn in preserving value and design. Saving despite tariffsProactive procurement led to a half-million-dollar savings for real estate investor/developer Dwellist at its Fayetteville project. Dwellist is transforming a decades-old motel near the University of Arkansas into The Fay, its first Motelier-branded property, a full adaptive-reuse. Recently, materials ordering was running into cost-overruns that risked putting the overall project over budget.…

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Nashville’s Industrial Market: A Resilient Powerhouse in 2026

John Nelson — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 11:59:00 +0000

As Nashville closes out 2025, the industrial market has solidified its reputation as a resilient powerhouse in the Southeast. With record investment volumes exceeding $2.2 billion and vacancy rates remaining well below national averages, the Nashville MSA continues to attract distributors, manufacturers, and data center-related businesses. This robust performance reflects a recalibration from pandemic-era highs while maintaining durable demand, setting the stage for balanced growth in 2026. Trends shaping the market Several macroeconomic trends are influencing Nashville’s industrial landscape. Nearshoring/onshoring and supply chain diversification have heightened the city’s appeal as a logistical hub. It is important to note that Nashville is strategically located within a day’s drive of over half the U.S. population. Locally, job growth has outpaced the national average, with Oxford Economics reporting a 1.1 percent increase in 2025, bolstered by gains in manufacturing, logistics and retail. Notably, Moody’s Analytics highlights transportation equipment manufacturing as a key driver, as automakers increase domestic production to mitigate tariffs. Further enhancing Nashville’s logistical capabilities, the planned expansion of air freight capacity at Nashville International Airport in 2027 is poised to solidify the region’s role in cargo throughput, supported by a robust highway network and a growing labor force. Despite broader economic…

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Scarcity Shapes Strategy: How Tight Vacancy Is Redefining Retail in Raleigh

John Nelson — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 12:32:00 +0000

If there is one defining characteristic of the Raleigh-Durham retail market today, it is scarcity. Exceptionally low vacancy — especially in high-quality, well-located centers — has become the norm rather than the exception, fundamentally reshaping leasing dynamics, rent growth and development strategy across the region. As of third-quarter 2025, overall retail vacancy in Raleigh-Durham stood at approximately 2.4 percent, marking four consecutive years below the 3 percent threshold. Even more telling, spaces under 10,000 square feet posted vacancy closer to 1.8 percent, underscoring just how competitive conditions have become for local and regional tenants. This imbalance between demand and supply has placed landlords in a position of sustained leverage, particularly in grocery-anchored centers, strong neighborhood and lifestyle shopping centers or mixed-use environments. Low vacancy matters because it drives outcomes. Lease-ups are happening faster, concessions are increasingly rare in top trade areas and rents continue to trend upward. For tenants, especially those seeking smaller footprints, waiting to engage often means missing opportunities altogether. For owners, the market rewards proactive asset management and disciplined tenant selection. A clear example of this dynamic is Olde Raleigh Village, a grocery-anchored community shopping center that is currently 100 percent leased. With no vacancy to contend…

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Has the Raleigh-Durham Office Market Hit Rock Bottom?

John Nelson — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 12:49:00 +0000

The Raleigh/Durham office market is not yet in full recovery mode; however, the latest data suggests something just as important: stabilization. Compared to many U.S. office markets still experiencing significant stress, Raleigh-Durham is holding its ground — and in several respects, outperforming national trends. Currently, the combined Raleigh-Durham office market totals approximately 118.7 million square feet, with Raleigh making up roughly two-thirds of the inventory and Durham the remainder. Together, they form one of the Southeast’s most dynamic and resilient office regions. Vacancy elevated, improving While higher than pre-pandemic norms, vacancy is trending better than many peer markets. Raleigh’s vacancy rate currently sits around 11.1 percent, while Durham’s vacancy rate is approximately 9.8 percent, according to research from CoStar Group. Combined, this market boasts a blended office vacancy rate of roughly 10.7 percent, well below the 14.1 percent national average. Over the past 12 months, Raleigh recorded positive net absorption of approximately 574,000 square feet, while Durham experienced negative absorption of about 480,000 square feet. Combined, the market landed near equilibrium, which sends an encouraging signal that the market is no longer sliding backward, even if growth remains uneven. The area’s post-pandemic growth is shaped by hybrid work models, changing…

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Strong Industrial Fundamentals, Smart Supply Fuel Momentum in the Triangle

John Nelson — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 12:56:00 +0000

The Triangle’s industrial market continues to hold strong fundamentals heading into the new year. A disciplined construction pipeline, low vacancy and high absorption fuel the market’s steady success. Disciplined constructionIndustrial developers have been incredibly disciplined when delivering new product to the Raleigh-Durham market, which has kept vacancy below 7 percent — a significantly stronger rate than peer Sun Belt markets as a result of record levels of development in recent years. With absorption rates in the Triangle averaging nearly 3 million square feet per year in the past five years, this healthy rate of delivery and absorption has propped up the region’s industrial market. That being said, the Raleigh-Durham market infill land supply has its limitations. Industrial-zoned land is difficult to find and acquisition costs are pushing $500,000 per acre in some submarkets, and rezoning is a lengthy 12-month or longer process. For these projects to be financially viable, developers have been increasing rents year-over-year to an average of over $12 per square foot across all submarkets, up from roughly $6 just five years ago. Many institutional occupiers have been willing to pay a premium to be in new, Class A space in these infill areas, but other occupiers are…

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Supply Drought: Why Triangle’s Multifamily Market Is About to Turn the Corner

John Nelson — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:23:00 +0000

After nearly three years of wrestling with oversupply, Raleigh-Durham’s multifamily market stands at an inflection point that informed investors have been quietly anticipating. The numbers tell a compelling story: construction starts plummeted from around 15,000 units in 2022 to roughly 2,000 in 2024, a staggering 86 percent decline that’s creating the supply drought the market desperately needed. The timing couldn’t be more critical. With an 18-month construction timeline followed by 12 to 16 months of lease-up process, the wave of deliveries from those record 2022 starts peaked in early-to-mid-2025. What comes next is perhaps the most interesting chapter in the Triangle’s multifamily story since our record rent jumps of 2021. Mathematics of recovery The construction cycle’s predictable timeline creates a unique visibility into market dynamics that astute capital allocators are already pricing in. The minimal 2024 starts are translating directly into minimal deliveries stretching from late 2025 through 2028 and beyond, which is essentially a three-year window of supply constraint that stands in stark contrast to the flood of new inventory and increased concessions that plagued 2023 to 2025. Meanwhile, demand fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Gross absorption hit approximately 11,000 units in 2024 and is tracking toward another 10,000 (estimated)…

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Port Authorities Advance the Southeast’s Industrial Sector With Infrastructural Investments

John Nelson — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 12:39:00 +0000

In 2022, the Port of New Orleans (Port NOLA) announced the Louisiana International Terminal (LIT), a new $1.8 billion container terminal coming to Violet, a small city about 10 miles downriver (or south) from New Orleans in St. Bernard Parish. The project is a public-private partnership between Port NOLA and two private maritime industry leaders, Ports America and Terminal Investment Ltd., and is being funded with private capital and public funding from the State of Louisiana and federal sources. The U.S. Army Corps. of Engineers is managing LIT’s environmental review and permitting process, after which the public-private partnership will begin construction. Set for completion in 2028, the ambitious project is expected to generate 18,000 new jobs by 2050 and handle 2 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of cargo traffic annually. “I consider it the most important project in the entire region,” says Andrew Marcus, founder of local commercial real estate services firm Agile Coast. “From an economic development perspective and from a quality-of-life perspective, it is the single-most important project for our region, period. The LIT is going to be the beachhead for getting modernized containerized cargo ships to come in, and we have the ability to have several terminals…

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Raleigh-Durham’s Multifamily Market Is Normalizing Following Several Quarters of Softness

John Nelson — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:18:00 +0000

The Raleigh-Durham region continues to be one of the premier pockets of growth in the Southeast, thanks to robust employment opportunities and a steady pipeline of renters graduating from area schools including Duke University, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University. Multifamily developers have been more than eager to help satiate the demand for housing in the area in recent years. According to Yardi Matrix, the Raleigh-Durham region had nearly 14,500 apartments deliver in 2024. The research platform also reported that approximately 8,600 more units came on line in the first three quarters of 2025, which represents a 4.2 percent growth rate compared to the market’s existing inventory. Like many of its peer markets in the Sun Belt, the Raleigh-Durham region is working its way through the excess supply, which is extending the lease-up period for newer properties. “For projects delivered in late 2023 into early 2024, absorption has slowed compared to historical norms,” says Lisa Narducci-Nix, director of business and property development at Drucker + Falk. Southeast Real Estate Business recently caught up with Narducci-Nix to discuss the health of the Raleigh-Durham apartment market, as well as larger operational trends. The following is an edited interview:…

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