In spite of national trends, news of spiking default rates and a prediction of a national decline in retail tenancy, the middle Tennessee region appears to be emerging in equal (or better) condition from one of the most unusual years in history. Prior to the government-mandated shutdowns last year, retail activity in Nashville was at a fever pitch. A decade of year-over-year population and economic growth created a strong seller’s and landlord’s market, with no end in sight. The University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research projected a 1 million-person population growth for Middle Tennessee by 2040. This strong, sustained growth pushed retail rents up more than 50 percent since 2010 and represents one of the largest cumulative increases in the nation, behind only Miami and Austin. In 2019, the Nashville region saw asking rents above the national average, according to CoStar Group. One year ago, the sudden and unexpected COVID-19 shutdowns made the collective hearts of 2008 survivors skip a beat. A real concern of what the next week or month might look like hit both landlords and tenants in the region, particularly in the downtown retail district that is historically reliant on tourism. As music …
Affordable HousingMarket ReportsMultifamilySeniors HousingSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsStudent HousingTennessee
Multifamily Investors Await Clarity on Nashville’s Economic Recovery
Owners and buyers remain apart on pricing. Unlike some densely populated urban areas where the extent of the damage to local commercial real estate operations is unknown, the gap in Nashville persists due to uncertainty regarding the upside potential rather than downside risks. Owners are hesitant to list properties because the metro remains a safe portion of their portfolios. If this disconnect persists, pricing will return to pre-recession levels before many other areas of the country. In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, multifamily transactions slowed to almost a standstill. However, transaction velocity picked back up and made a strong rebound between the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Although total sales volume dropped from $1.9 billion in 2019 to $1.6 billion in 2020, it was still the third-highest sales output since 2010 and cap rates averaged 5 percent, down 28 basis points year-over-year. California-based investors represent the lion’s share of investment activity, purchasing over $650 million of assets in Nashville in 2020. We are seeing more cities buying into Nashville such as Virginia-based Snell Properties, which purchased Retreat at Iron Horse in the Nashville suburb of Franklin for $306,000 per-unit in September. San Antonio-based Embrey developed the Class …
In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Nashville weathered tornadoes that traveled through its core in the first quarter and a bomb explosion on 2nd Avenue North in the fourth quarter. Both catastrophes destroyed commercial properties. Despite these events last year, the fundamentals that make Nashville a strong office market remain unchanged. Nashville stays a magnet for corporate relocations, most recently attracting multiple companies from California. According to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce data, The Daily Wire, Design Lab, N2M Advisory and Revance Therapeutics announced relocations in the second half of 2020. These announcements encompass over 100,000 square feet of office to be occupied and 540 jobs total. Industry experts surveyed by Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report ranked Nashville as the No. 3 “Market to Watch in 2021.” This is Nashville’s sixth consecutive year in the top 10. The report credits Nashville’s attractive business climate, affordable cost of living and speed of recovery post-COVID-19. The report names Nashville as one of six new boomtowns as it’s a top in-migration market that is attracting a large share of smart young workers. Additionally, ULI and PwC acknowledge that Nashville …
“When you’re hot, you’re hot.” These old lyrics from Jerry Reed ring loud and clear these days for industrial real estate in Nashville and Middle Tennessee. Over the past five years, Nashville has been on a tear with industrial activity. At the start of 2021, Nashville appears to be pushing the fast forward button, even with COVID-19. There is a growing list of buyers, developers and users looking to enter the Nashville industrial market at unprecedented levels. With that said, can the supply of industrial product and land keep up with the demand? Where will the product be built? And what will it look like? Historically, Nashville has never seen a large supply of speculative big boxes built in comparison to our neighbors such as Memphis and Atlanta. Unless a build-to-suit, larger buildings have had a longer lease-up time in comparison to our neighboring cities. Nashville is a meat and potato market with the vast majority of our deals in the 75,000- to 150,000-square-oot range. Sure, like any market today we have seen our large third-party logistics deals with the likes of Amazon, Geodis and FedEx leading the way. Typically, our market may see one or two of these larger …
Affordable HousingMarket ReportsMultifamilyNorth CarolinaSeniors HousingSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsStudent Housing
Triangle’s Apartment Demand Pushes to the Region’s Suburban Markets
The impacts of COVID-19 on the U.S. multifamily market vary significantly across metro areas. Not surprisingly, the nation’s denser gateway markets have been hardest hit, while secondary and tertiary markets have fared better. In a reversal of pre-pandemic trends, suburban locations have gained favor over urban submarkets from both renters and investors. As many employees continue to work from home, larger and more affordable units in suburban submarkets have become more appealing. Elevated construction costs are also a factor, driving garden-style development versus more costly podium construction. The Triangle’s suburban submarkets are experiencing the strongest construction activity, most notably in the North Cary/Morrisville submarket, where 1,784 units averaging over 1,000 square feet per unit are currently underway. As ongoing work-from-home arrangements prompt more tenants to consider living further from the Triangle’s primary employment centers, developers are increasingly willing to look at sites in outlying communities such as Wendell and Clayton. Demand is expected to return to the Triangle’s urban submarkets as employees return to the office and retailers and restaurants fully reopen, but the recovery in these areas is likely to be protracted. Solid footing The Triangle’s multifamily sector ended 2020 on relatively firm footing despite a tumultuous year. Both …
This time last year, we were commenting on the changing retail market, but we were overall very optimistic about 2020. What a difference a year makes! Across the United States, 2020 brought us the closing of the following: 279 SteinMart stores; 1,100 Ann Taylor stores; 950 Pier 1 Imports stores; 350 Gap stores; 248 GNC stores; 145 A.C. Moore stores; 230 Tuesday Morning stores; and 178 Forever 21 stores. Additionally, Macy’s closed 29 stores in 2020 and expects to close another 45 in 2021. This trend of retail store closings will slow down in 2021, but it will not change. On the positive side, retailers such as Walmart, Target, The Home Depot, Lowe’s Home Improvement and Walgreens have seen positive sales numbers and continue to expand. In the supermarket sector, Kroger, Food Lion and Publix have had record numbers and, along with Aldi and Lidl, are expanding. In the Raleigh-Durham market, our 2020 vacancy rate has increased to 8.24 percent and rental rates have hovered in the $18 to $20 per square foot range, but those numbers are skewed due to rent concessions and abatements. Raleigh-Durham has approximately 86.6 million square feet of retail space with around 640,000 square feet …
The Raleigh-Durham commercial real estate market continues to be one of growth and perseverance despite the global pandemic. Its economy is rich with an array of industries, healthcare and university systems that support population growth and expansion. Commercial real estate is experiencing its own challenges and opportunities through this pandemic, including one of the most talked about asset classes, office. The sector is the subject of the big “pause” discussion as there’s uncertainty going forward. Despite the lack of commitment to many significant leases, the office market’s fundamentals have remained stable in Raleigh-Durham. Rates are holding steady with an average Class A rental rate of $29.59 per square foot. Vacancy and absorption are maintaining competitive levels, allowing market rates to hold somewhat steady. Over the last year, activity reflected these trends as many landlords negotiated short-term renewals without rate increases. If the leasing trend continues this year, renewals and space consolidation will possibly lead to a reduction in rental rates. One of the key driving forces of office product in Raleigh-Durham stems from the life sciences industry. The market is currently ranked No. 5 among life sciences markets in the United States, according to CBRE’s annual report. The life sciences …
Nearly three full quarters into the COVID-19 pandemic, no real estate asset class in the Washington, D.C., metro area has shown less macro-level distress than the industrial market. In fact, the industrial market may have actually benefited from the pandemic. Despite the immediate drop in demand and activity that resulted in the second quarter, the metro industrial market has bounced back and posted positive gains in both leasing activity and new construction. No other asset class can claim that in the D.C. area. Much of the industrial activity is centered in Northern Virginia, but Suburban Maryland has remained healthy as well. At the end of the third quarter, the overall vacancy rate for warehouse/logistics space, flex and service center industrial buildings stood at 6.2 percent. Unlike many industrial markets, the Washington, D.C., MSA is a service economy with more than 260 million square feet of space. Early industrial development around the Capital Beltway/Interstate 495 served to support an ever-growing population base driven by the federal government and its contractors. This, however, has changed in the past decade, with high-tech companies entering and dominating the market. Fueling D.C.’s healthy market is its high barrier to entry. Much of the development that …
Like many other markets across the country, the Washington, D.C., multifamily market was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Vacancy is up and asking rents are down. However, Washington’s unique renter class, made up heavily of students and young professionals, and the region’s main economic drivers will fuel a quick post-COVID-19 recovery. As we close out 2020, multifamily investors have reason to remain confident in a quick bounceback in 2021. Once the virus hit, many offices switched to a remote work environment, and many of the local universities switched to remote learning. We know that this fueled an exodus of renters from the city to their parents’ basements, to greener pastures in the suburbs or to areas with a lower cost of living. At one of our market-rate listings in a core neighborhood of Northwest D.C., property managers reported an immediate 10-basis-point increase in vacancies the day that George Washington University closed its campus for the fall 2020 semester. Entering the fourth quarter, the Washington MSA recorded the highest vacancy rate on record, breaking 6 percent for the first time, according to research from CoStar Group. Average asking rents are down approximately 3 percent this year, and the pain is …
By Claire Blevins and Collin Devaney, NAI Brannen Goddard We’ve all seen the depressing commercial real estate news stories about the state of the office market, with words like “bleak,” “hazy” or “obsolete” in the headlines. Questions surround every major market, including Atlanta — a metro market known for its dependable economy and robust demand. Admittedly, Atlanta has had its struggles during the pandemic, like slow leasing activity and rising rental rates, but not everything is doom and gloom. New City Properties, in the middle of breaking ground on Mailchimp’s new headquarters, announced it was upping the budget to prepare for future pandemics, including setting money aside for technology that is not even available yet. Other developers are choosing to prioritize private green space over expensive machinery. Midtown’s new Norfolk Southern headquarters, opening by the third quarter of 2021, takes advantage of its 3.4-acre lot by developing a campus-style hub filled with parks and a rooftop garden. Employees who utilize these outdoor spaces decrease the risk of airborne transmissions, as well as promote healthy habits. Not every office building has the room for large outdoor forums, so other owners are doing away with cubicles and building out private offices. Or …