Southeast Market Reports

Memphis is currently undergoing an evolution that has been experienced by many markets in the region: increasing activity among office tenants moving with more confidence. In Memphis, this is manifesting itself in a flight to quality among office-using companies. While East Memphis is considered the most attractive office submarket in the region, the Downtown submarket has experienced significant leasing over the past 24 months and is gaining momentum. This focus on urban office is another trend that is just now hitting the Memphis market. Memphis’ most significant win in 2018 was Indigo Ag’s announcement that it will relocate its North American headquarters for its commercial operations to downtown Memphis. Indigo Ag, a high-tech agriculture firm whose primary service includes coating seeds with protective microbes, will expand its current downtown Memphis office at Toyota Center. With the expansion, the firm intends to increase its workforce by 700 corporate employees and invest $6.6 million over the next three years. Upon its completion, Indigo Ag will occupy 103,500 square feet in the eight-story Toyota Center, which will be renamed “Indigo Plaza.” The move represents the most recent and significant corporate investment in the Downtown submarket, following the relocation of ServiceMaster and its 1,200 …

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Seeking higher yield, private capital multifamily investors are increasingly looking to the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Chesapeake MSA. This region of seven cities and a population of more than 1.7 million people is known collectively as Hampton Roads. Strong fundamentals, a youthful population and an expanding economy offer more promising returns than most surrounding MSAs. Compressing cap rates Over the last 12 months, cap rates compressed nationwide. In Hampton Roads, Class A cap rates ranged between 5.25 and 5.50 percent. There is very little spread between Class A and going-in cap rates for well located, true value-add deals. Notable recent sales include the Waypoint Portfolio in Newport News, Trail Creek in Hampton and Brookfield and Woodshire in Virginia Beach. Collectively, cap rates for these transactions ranged from 5.50 to 5.75 percent. Transaction volume in 2018 exceeded $665 million. With deals in the MSA now trading as high as $70 million a piece, more private equity groups nationwide are seeking to invest in the market. Strong fundamentals Fundamentals in Hampton Roads continue to improve with steady year-over-year rent growth and occupancy near 95 percent. With numerous MSAs battling oversupply and concessionary pressures, Hampton Roads apartment owners benefit from a more modest development pipeline. CoStar …

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The industrial real estate sector is currently undergoing one of the greatest expansionary periods in the nation’s history. Record development, all-time high occupancy and rental rates and strong leasing activity have been a boon to the U.S. industrial market in the last two years. In addition to these fundamental elements that make up a strong sector, there has been a demand driver that has transformed the industrial market more now than ever: e-commerce. Amazon is now the largest industrial occupier post-recession, which is forcing retailers and wholesalers to modernize their supply chain to keep up. E-commerce is not a new phenomenon, but it is becoming increasingly competitive, and is expected to grow another 55 percent in the next four years, according to Colliers International research. E-commerce has reshaped the way people purchase goods, resulting in new increased requirements on the transportation of products. As such, organizations are needing to reevaluate their supply chain strategies and transportation costs, and demand for smaller fulfillment centers closer to the urban population is exploding. This challenge around the “last-mile delivery” is altering the distribution and logistics sectors. IMS Worldwide defines the last mile as the “last point of distribution or sortation to the final …

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With a staggering number of tower cranes at work every day, Nashville has delivered a record number of multifamily units, office space and hotel rooms in the past several years. Even with all this development and with tourists flocking to downtown seemingly every week of the year, one category has lagged: new retail downtown. To provide a snapshot of growth in downtown Nashville, the number of residential units downtown has grown from 3,700 in 2010 to 11,800 today. Hotel room rates since 2008 have virtually doubled, and we currently have 1.6 million square feet of office space under construction. But even with all this explosive growth, retail development downtown has lagged. Many would wonder why, and there are a number of reasons. Historically, many developers have seen downtown Nashville as an afterthought to include ground-level retail in their projects. Because of this, small amounts of retail were metered onto the market. This retail space was geographically spread out over a number of developments across downtown. This did not lead to a rich consumer experience, because consumers strongly prefer finding retail options in a concentrated environment. Another challenge to building great retail has been the limited scale of individual projects. But …

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The Nashville office market continues to have positive momentum coming into 2019, following three years of record-setting leasing that brought several big name corporate tenants to the market — plus a recent surprise announcement that Amazon will soon be adding 5,000 employees to Nashville’s central business district (CBD) within the Nashville Yards development. The bulk of the activity is concentrated in CBD Class A office space, as tenants focus on real estate decisions that emphasize recruiting and employee retention. This trend mirrors activity occurring in many major markets across the country. Companies continue to seek the coveted urban work-live-play environments designed to attract the millennial population. Avison Young research shows that the CBD recorded 255,330 square feet of positive net absorption at year-end 2018. Among the large companies that signed notable leases in the urban core in 2018 are Philips, AllianceBernstein and Asurion, which is adding 400 tech employees and consolidating several locations into a new 550,000-square-foot headquarters at 11th Avenue North and Church Street in the Gulch. Construction is scheduled to begin this year on that headquarters, with completion slated by the end of 2021. Nashville’s strong business climate and robust office leasing activity have caught the attention of …

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In 2018, Nashville continued experiencing unprecedented population growth. Major job announcements, rising home prices and income growth have led to a shift in renters-by-choice. This has continued to transform our urban core and has had an immense impact on various industries within the city. On the investment side, multifamily assets in the market demonstrated some notable pricing trends through year-end 2018. The median price per unit in Nashville increased by more than 14 percent from fourth-quarter 2017 to fourth-quarter 2018, reaching $145,000 compared to $117,000 in the Southeast and $162,000 across the nation. This comparison demonstrates how Nashville is a highly valued market in the Southeast but remains attractive from a pricing standpoint to national investors looking to acquire quality product. What was an increasingly concessionary environment in 2017 and 2018, the Nashville multifamily market will tighten throughout 2019. Large-scale job announcements like AllianceBernstein, Amazon and Ernst & Young will bring thousands of jobs to Middle Tennessee. These announcements will help ensure that the recent trend of high absorption will continue through the year. Demand in Nashville has been strong relative to the historical average, but supply has outperformed demand in the past year due to new construction of much-needed …

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The Raleigh and overall Triangle retail markets ended 2018 in a strong position with several large sites changing hands, urban growth booming in the downtowns, numerous suburban ground-up projects in the pipeline and traditional malls undergoing major transitions. The market is poised to see retail construction activity grow with a healthy balance of supply and demand, despite national brick-and-mortar retail industry challenges. The Triangle vacancy rate ended the year with a vacancy rate below 7 percent, which represents strong improvement from the end of 2017, even with accounting for the large-scale closing and downsizings in the Triangle. Positive absorption over the past year has included re-leasing 12 Kroger stores, two Gander Mountains, five hhgregg stores and several other significant box vacancies. Fierce grocery competition and continued pressure on “in-store” sales have caused retailers, owners and developers to rethink and recreate the retail experience and development landscape. Downtown urban centers Rapid multifamily and housing gentrification in the downtowns of Raleigh and Durham continue to push mixed-use and high-street retail. With residential and employment densification occurring, Raleigh has experienced several first-time retail events in 2018. Morgan Street Food Hall and Urban Outfitters opened in the Warehouse District, Publix is under construction on …

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The Raleigh-Durham industrial/flex market, totaling approximately 135 million square feet, continues to be strong with overall positive absorption. Absorption for industrial totaled 1.6 million square feet and flex was over 3 million square feet for 2018. Vacancy is trending lower, helping make the region a landlord and seller’s market. With increasing construction costs, lower vacancy and solid demand, the rental rates and sales prices are now the highest of any region in North Carolina. Our rental rate for new industrial product is currently in the mid to high $5 per square foot range and trending higher. Some developers and brokers speculate the Triangle may become a $6 per square foot market for institutional-grade warehouse space in 2019. Ground zero for the region’s warehouse market is in the general vicinity of Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU). Most distributors that locate here are delivering to the local market and need the central location and access to Interstate 40. The historical barriers to entry near the airport have been high land costs and lack of land not encumbered with wetland or easements. Another barrier to entry that has crept into the picture are some local municipalities desiring a “higher end” product than warehouse and …

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The short answer: absolutely. You don’t need to be a savvy commercial real estate professional to notice the impact multifamily has on Raleigh’s urban landscape. Areas like North Hills/Midtown, Downtown and Hillsborough Street are typically at the forefront of everyone’s mind when they think of new Raleigh developments, but it’s not just Class A development in the city’s urban core that has seen a boom.  Class B and C suburban product have seen the most significant rent growth through the cycle that continues to increase each quarter. Moreover, we are seeing new construction intensify along our suburban corridors.  It’s also no secret that Raleigh has one of the healthiest economies in the country. The Milken Institute reported recently that Raleigh ranks No. 2 in the nation for creating and keeping quality jobs. Economic factors like wage and employment growth, quality of life, proximity to higher education and a bustling tech sector have created a perfect storm of dynamic economic activity.  Much to their chagrin, Raleigh natives haven’t done a very good job of keeping this a secret, and the number of fresh new faces coming to the Triangle continues to rise.  In fact, the Raleigh-Durham market grew by nearly 60,000 …

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The Raleigh-Durham region’s continued strong job growth is fueling sustained demand from tenants, keeping the office market firmly in favor of landlords despite a notable increase in construction activity in recent months. The region added 26,500 jobs between October 2017 and October 2018 for a growth rate of 3 percent. Unemployment fell from 3.8 percent to just 3.0 percent during this time, hitting its lowest level since 2000. Despite not making the final cut for massive headquarters expansions from Amazon and Apple, Raleigh-Durham experienced significant economic development wins in 2018. Major job announcements came from office-using tenants such as Advance Auto Parts (435 jobs), Pendo (590 jobs), Arch Capital Services (365 jobs), Ipreo (250 jobs) and LabCorp (422 jobs). As in many markets across the United States, co-working operators significantly increased their presence in the region in 2018. Spaces has signed leases at five Raleigh-Durham properties, and WeWork committed to two locations and has stated that it plans to triple its local footprint in the near term. In November 2018, Forbes ranked North Carolina the nation’s No. 1 state in which to do business, and Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers named Raleigh-Durham the No. 3 U.S. market in their Emerging …

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