Southeast Market Reports

Contrary to some Southeast markets’ recent shift in focus to the suburbs, construction in Central Birmingham continues to boom with activity. The Central Birmingham cluster — encompassing the CBD, Southside, Parkside District, University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) and Lakeview neighborhoods — has established itself as a strong-performing submarket with 3,800 multifamily units total, according to CoStar. The growing number of desirable amenities such as parks, restaurants, museums and trails has helped foster rent growth and additional projects. Birmingham’s overall multifamily construction activity has been consistent with 12,000 units added from 2009 to 2018 (approximately 1,300 units per year). Within the Birmingham metro itself, multifamily construction is highly concentrated in Central Birmingham, which experienced a 225 percent hike in multifamily construction from a low in second-quarter 2017 to 850 units currently under construction and 1,400 units planned or proposed. Suburban supply has been tempered compared to similar metros given the lack of zoned land available. There are a number of planned suburban projects, including projects by Dobbins Group and Davis Development, but none under construction. Drivers of this trend Rents achieved in Central Birmingham enable multifamily development to ensue despite higher construction costs. The Pizitz and Thomas Jefferson Tower (TJ) are …

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Birmingham’s investor-controlled, multi-tenant warehouse market remains at or near record occupancy levels — 95 percent for bulk warehouse and 90.4 percent for office/warehouse. The 32-foot clear heights, Class A bulk market is even tighter at nearly 100 percent. Landlords are well into a cycle of market catch-up, rent growth and capital reinvestment. A growing list of tenants, reading the tea leaves, have gone long when appropriate. But what about new construction? A local developer finally put a shovel in the ground in 2018, delivering a 30 percent preleased, 112,500-square-foot front load project on a well-located infill site. The timing was perfect and captured some pent-up demand with two leases promptly signed for the balance of the building. Rents for this development were quoted at $5.95 per-square-foot, while the submarket average trailed at $4.87 for tenant sizes under 40,000 square feet. The gap is narrowing. Two build-to-suits were also delivered in early 2018: Gardner Denver Nash’s 52,000-square-foot facility and Mercedes-Benz U.S. International supplier Truck & Wheel Group’s 127,000-square-foot assembly plant, the latter purchased by Gladstone Commercial Corp. Along with absorption rates, site scarcity is a limiting factor for Birmingham’s development pipeline. That said, there are a few developer-controlled sites suitable for …

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Charlotte’s industrial market continues to see strong momentum in early 2019, and with healthy rates of absorption and rental growth despite record levels of new development, it remains the preferred asset class in the Queen City among institutional investors. Industrial absorption totaled 5.2 million square feet in 2018, according to JLL research, making it the fourth consecutive year that the market has absorbed at least 4 million square feet. The demand for new space is driven in part by the growth of the Carolinas: North and South Carolina both ranked in the top 10 nationally for population growth over the past year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and Charlotte is well-situated geographically for distribution facilities that can cover both states. E-commerce, of course, has been another major driver of demand and development. During the fourth quarter, Amazon received construction permits for its fourth and largest distribution center in the Charlotte region, a 2.4-million-square-foot facility that will be located on 100 acres north of Charlotte Douglas International Airport. A separate 1.2 million-square-foot distribution facility for Amazon in nearby Kannapolis is expected to open this year. Industrial development continues to migrate to Charlotte’s surrounding counties, where land is more readily available …

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Thirty years ago, there were 33 operating textile mills in Spartanburg County, South Carolina. Today, there are scarcely a handful. The jobs and investments disappeared in the wake of regulatory change and international trade agreements. However, the infrastructure, location, existing workforce and entrepreneurial attitude of the area’s leadership saw this as a challenge to evolve. And evolve it did — using the substrate of the textile industry as a solid foundation. The well-trained and manufacturing-oriented workforce, coupled with the existing manufacturing support base (specialty machinery fabrication including maintenance and constituent chemical suppliers), were readily adaptable to new and recast job opportunities. This was the canvas on which the area’s evolution would be painted. Specialty equipment, manufacturing, fabrication, chemical production and other vestiges of the textile industry have remained demand drivers for the Upstate market. They have been reconfigured in the form of investment and expansion by Milliken & Co., Toray Carbon Fiber, General Electric and Keurig Green Mountain. The existing manufacturing-oriented workforce, with its previous experience and mindset, were a prime reason BMW selected Spartanburg County as the home for its first North America production facility. BMW’s Plant Spartanburg and its vast supplier and related support network have emerged as …

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Memphis continued its record-setting ways throughout 2018. Absorption was higher than 2017 by over 735,000 square feet for a total of 6.7 million square feet. Overall vacancy rates fell below 6 percent for the first time in recent history. As of Jan. 1, 2019, vacancy rates were at 5.8 percent. One would think this would come at the expense of rental rates, however, rental rates stayed constant at $2.77 per square foot until year-end. This represents a slight increase of 10 cents per square foot over 2017. With an industrial market exceeding 270 million square feet, it’s no wonder how Memphis got its name as “America’s Distribution Center.” Memphis International Airport is the second largest cargo airport in the world, home to 400 trucking companies, the third busiest trucking corridor (Interstate 40 to Little Rock), one of only four cities to be served by five long-haul Class 1 rail systems, the fourth largest inland port and the second largest stillwater port. Home to the FedEx World Hub, as well as UPS and USPS hubs all operating 24 hours a day, 365 days a week, Memphis provides the most cost-effective distribution and logistics operations in the country. While Memphis has been …

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In January, during his annual State of the State address, Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland emphatically exclaimed, “Memphis has momentum!” Memphis, the biggest little town in America, is definitely in a period of unparalleled economic growth. Memphis has momentum on its side with the $10 billion, nine-year expansion at St. Jude Hospital and an infusion of hospitality that includes a new convention center and no fewer than 17 new hotels, which all started, will start or will be completed in downtown in 2019. Additionally, $4 billion in building permits have been awarded in the last few months with another $5 billion planned by developers. Most importantly, the highly anticipated Memphis 3.0 plan — the first comprehensive growth strategy for the city in 30 years — will ensure growth is sustained for many years to come. What are others saying about Memphis? Many respected publications are putting Memphis back on the map. Food & Wine put Memphis in its top 50 places to go and eat in 2019. Frommer’s Travel named the city the best place to visit in 2019. TravelChannel.com lists Memphis as the hottest Southern destination in 2019. And Forbes stakes Memphis as the best bet for real estate investments. …

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Memphis is currently undergoing an evolution that has been experienced by many markets in the region: increasing activity among office tenants moving with more confidence. In Memphis, this is manifesting itself in a flight to quality among office-using companies. While East Memphis is considered the most attractive office submarket in the region, the Downtown submarket has experienced significant leasing over the past 24 months and is gaining momentum. This focus on urban office is another trend that is just now hitting the Memphis market. Memphis’ most significant win in 2018 was Indigo Ag’s announcement that it will relocate its North American headquarters for its commercial operations to downtown Memphis. Indigo Ag, a high-tech agriculture firm whose primary service includes coating seeds with protective microbes, will expand its current downtown Memphis office at Toyota Center. With the expansion, the firm intends to increase its workforce by 700 corporate employees and invest $6.6 million over the next three years. Upon its completion, Indigo Ag will occupy 103,500 square feet in the eight-story Toyota Center, which will be renamed “Indigo Plaza.” The move represents the most recent and significant corporate investment in the Downtown submarket, following the relocation of ServiceMaster and its 1,200 …

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Seeking higher yield, private capital multifamily investors are increasingly looking to the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Chesapeake MSA. This region of seven cities and a population of more than 1.7 million people is known collectively as Hampton Roads. Strong fundamentals, a youthful population and an expanding economy offer more promising returns than most surrounding MSAs. Compressing cap rates Over the last 12 months, cap rates compressed nationwide. In Hampton Roads, Class A cap rates ranged between 5.25 and 5.50 percent. There is very little spread between Class A and going-in cap rates for well located, true value-add deals. Notable recent sales include the Waypoint Portfolio in Newport News, Trail Creek in Hampton and Brookfield and Woodshire in Virginia Beach. Collectively, cap rates for these transactions ranged from 5.50 to 5.75 percent. Transaction volume in 2018 exceeded $665 million. With deals in the MSA now trading as high as $70 million a piece, more private equity groups nationwide are seeking to invest in the market. Strong fundamentals Fundamentals in Hampton Roads continue to improve with steady year-over-year rent growth and occupancy near 95 percent. With numerous MSAs battling oversupply and concessionary pressures, Hampton Roads apartment owners benefit from a more modest development pipeline. CoStar …

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The industrial real estate sector is currently undergoing one of the greatest expansionary periods in the nation’s history. Record development, all-time high occupancy and rental rates and strong leasing activity have been a boon to the U.S. industrial market in the last two years. In addition to these fundamental elements that make up a strong sector, there has been a demand driver that has transformed the industrial market more now than ever: e-commerce. Amazon is now the largest industrial occupier post-recession, which is forcing retailers and wholesalers to modernize their supply chain to keep up. E-commerce is not a new phenomenon, but it is becoming increasingly competitive, and is expected to grow another 55 percent in the next four years, according to Colliers International research. E-commerce has reshaped the way people purchase goods, resulting in new increased requirements on the transportation of products. As such, organizations are needing to reevaluate their supply chain strategies and transportation costs, and demand for smaller fulfillment centers closer to the urban population is exploding. This challenge around the “last-mile delivery” is altering the distribution and logistics sectors. IMS Worldwide defines the last mile as the “last point of distribution or sortation to the final …

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With a staggering number of tower cranes at work every day, Nashville has delivered a record number of multifamily units, office space and hotel rooms in the past several years. Even with all this development and with tourists flocking to downtown seemingly every week of the year, one category has lagged: new retail downtown. To provide a snapshot of growth in downtown Nashville, the number of residential units downtown has grown from 3,700 in 2010 to 11,800 today. Hotel room rates since 2008 have virtually doubled, and we currently have 1.6 million square feet of office space under construction. But even with all this explosive growth, retail development downtown has lagged. Many would wonder why, and there are a number of reasons. Historically, many developers have seen downtown Nashville as an afterthought to include ground-level retail in their projects. Because of this, small amounts of retail were metered onto the market. This retail space was geographically spread out over a number of developments across downtown. This did not lead to a rich consumer experience, because consumers strongly prefer finding retail options in a concentrated environment. Another challenge to building great retail has been the limited scale of individual projects. But …

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