Southeast Market Reports

Investors Target Louisville as Multifamily Market Outperforms Expectations

by John Nelson November 6, 2023

Louisville, perhaps the center of the universe for horses and bourbon, is a somewhat undiscovered gem lying at the northern edge of the Southeast. The metro, with a population of just under 1.4 million people, is a steady performer across virtually all measurables, producing consistent and predictable metrics that may not dazzle Wall Street but certainly have not disappointed the base of capital invested in this riverfront market. The Kentucky Derby, which ran for the 149th time this past May, produces $400 million in economic development annually and is likely the first mental image conjured up when the term “Louisville” is mentioned. Kentucky bourbon likely comes to mind next as a $9 billion industry across the state, with roots as deep as oak. However, there’s much more to the Louisville metro. Through the first half of 2023, the Louisville metro area had recovered virtually all of the more than 55,000 jobs the market lost in 2020. Interestingly but not surprisingly, arts, entertainment and recreation posted a net 7.5 percent increase in jobs from 2020 through 2022, more than erasing a blistering 2020 loss of 25.4 percent of the jobs in this sector. Less glamorous but perhaps more critical is transportation …

November 6, 2023

Florida Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Strong Office Sector Helps Propel Miami’s Multifamily Market

by John Nelson October 30, 2023

While many cities grapple with a declining population, softening rents and a struggling office market, Miami is riding a wave of population growth and apartment demand. This stems from the usual factors — sun, lifestyle and low taxes — as well as something unprecedented: an influx of large office users. New-to-market office tenants are transforming Miami’s economy and helping offset the challenges of inflation and rising interest rates. Miami multifamily fundamentals remain strong, with plenty of liquidity in the market. Our economy is more diversified than ever, and this has made it one of the most desirable markets in the country. Supply and demand People and businesses fleeing states with higher taxes and longer pandemic restrictions helped fuel Miami’s population surge between 2020 and 2022 and led to record-breaking rent growth during that period. Miami has become a magnet for large financial and tech firms, with well-heeled companies like Starwood Property Trust, Citadel Securities, BlockChain and Blackstone Group taking new office space. All told, a record 57 companies relocated or expanded to Miami-Dade County last year. Between May 2022 and May 2023, Miami added over 83,000 jobs, more than a 4 percent increase. Miami’s unemployment rate as of May 2023 …

October 30, 2023

Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports Virginia

Richmond’s Multifamily Growth Reflects the Local Economy’s Positive Trajectory

by John Nelson October 23, 2023

As Richmond continues to grow, its relative value points to prosperity in the market for years to come. Having grown our company in Richmond, we’ve witnessed the transformative momentum and tremendous change firsthand. Specifically, the diverse employment base has continued to expand through economic strength and migration trends, increasing not only population but also multifamily demand and asset performance. Strong economics support Richmond’s stability. Richmond’s diverse employment base empowers a resilient market with high-growth potential. The MSA is home to 11 Fortune 1000 companies and a robust private sector, encompassing hospitals, energy companies and financial services. The economy is stabilized by the presence of many institutions of higher learning, along with substantial medical and life sciences users. Numerous major corporations have announced or recently completed large expansions. These include CoStar’s new $460 million corporate campus (2,000 jobs) and The LEGO Group’s new $1 billion, 1.7-million-square-foot production facility (1,760 jobs). As Virginia’s state capital, Richmond has a large government presence, including the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank and the U.S. Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. The city is also actively engaged in creating public-private partnerships — including the “Diamond District,” a 67.5-acre parcel redevelopment into a mixed-use entertainment district, and “City Center,” …

October 23, 2023

Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports Virginia

Deal Velocity for Richmond’s Industrial Market Slows for First Time This Cycle

by John Nelson October 16, 2023

With rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve playing out across the capital markets, uncertainty has crept into all corners of commercial real estate, even in red-hot industrial markets like Richmond. For the first time this cycle, deal velocity has slowed for new acquisitions and leasing activity alike in the greater Richmond area. Borrowing costs have skyrocketed in the past 12 months, leading to an extended period of price discovery from both buyers and sellers, thus fewer investment sales. Richmond’s occupancy rate remained steady from first-quarter to second-quarter 2023 at 96 percent, according to research from Porter Realty. Occupancy ticked up 400 basis points for Class A space during that time frame — from 92 to 96 percent — and Class B stayed steady at 98 percent quarter-over-quarter. The second quarter saw more than 280,000 square feet of space returned to the market, though it had negligible impacts on occupancy rates. (Porter Realty tracks industrial facilities in the greater Richmond market sized 40,000 square feet and larger.) The bulk of new leases recently are executed by third-party logistics providers. Recent deals include Riverside Logistics taking 90,000 square feet in Henrico County, Bermuda Distribution & Trucking subleasing 48,000 square feet in …

October 16, 2023

Kentucky Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Retailers, Restaurant Groups Zero In On Louisville to Meet City’s Robust Demand

by John Nelson October 11, 2023

As the nation’s 28th-largest city, Louisville is home to a dynamic, diversified economy. The Greater Louisville region draws workers from a 26-county area in Kentucky and southern Indiana, providing an ample and reliable source of educated and skilled employees. The geography of Louisville, specifically its accessibility to the Ohio River, central location nationally and mild climate, have contributed to its ability to grow and evolve. Additionally, reducing the income tax rate in Kentucky is a goal of the current Republican majority State Representatives to further economic development, and the Democratic governor (Gov. Andy Beshear) is also supporting this reduction as a way to help ease the burden of inflation for residents. Legislation passed in 2022 dropped the individual tax rate from 5 percent to 4.5 percent for tax year 2023, and a bill signed earlier this year by Gov. Beshear drops it again for 2024 to 4 percent. The goal is to ultimately get income tax rates down to zero, or very close to zero, in 50-basis-point steps as certain budget metrics are hit. These measures seem to be working for growth in the Commonwealth. One of the more notable capital investment projects is the Ford partnership BlueOval SK Battery …

October 11, 2023

Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports Virginia

Richmond’s Office Market Is Stable and Active on the Leasing Front

by John Nelson October 9, 2023

In the second quarter of 2023, the Richmond office market posted more than 670,000 square feet of leasing volume, the highest total volume in more than four years. As transactions commence in future quarters, absorption will be impacted from occupancy shifts later in the year. Despite increased leasing activity, however, the market softened slightly as absorption has started to plateau. The second quarter represented the fourth consecutive quarter of negative net absorption as Richmond’s office market observed occupancy losses dipping to 21,489 square feet. Vacancy rates rose and settled at 12.6 percent, an 8-basis-point increase quarter-over-quarter. Pre-pandemic, overall asking rents saw stable upward rent growth. Since 2020, rental rates have continued to increase though at a leaner rate. Class A rents have flattened over the past 12 months, while Class B rents continued to rise. The Manchester and Scott’s Addition submarkets remain the hot spots for office development. Though there are currently no major office buildings underway at this time, most major office projects under construction in the last five years have either been build-to-suits or conversions. The only notable exception to this was The Current, a 70,000-square-foot spec office building that delivered in Manchester at the end of 2021. …

October 9, 2023

Florida Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Increasing Rental Rates, Record Construction Define Orlando’s Industrial Market

by John Nelson October 2, 2023

Orlando’s industrial market continues to maintain strong market fundamentals. Despite leasing activity temporarily softening at the midway point of 2023 compared to the end of second-quarter 2022, exceptionally low vacancy rates persist, putting upward pressure on asking rental rates and further strengthening developer confidence in the market. With its strategic locational advantages and diverse tenant mix, the sector is well-positioned for future growth. According to Florida Commerce, Orlando’s unemployment rate is 2.6 percent, well below the national rate of 3.6 percent. Labor shortages remain, as jobs increased by 5,300 in the industrial-using sector and 6,200 in trade, transportation, and utilities. At the same time, Central Florida’s population growth — along with the state’s business-friendly conditions, from no state income tax to relative affordability — consistently spurs demand for e-commerce logistics and warehousing throughout the region. Asking rates surge Year-to-date industrial leasing volume in Orlando has been 4.4 million square feet, 2.4 million square feet of which was in the second quarter. Total vacancy stood at 3.5 percent in the second quarter, significantly lower than the national vacancy rate of 5.4 percent. The average asking rate for industrial properties in Orlando was $10.77 triple-net per square foot, reflecting a 5.4 percent …

October 2, 2023

Florida Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Supply-Demand for Central Florida’s Retail Market Is Well-Balanced

by John Nelson September 25, 2023

The demand for retail space throughout Central Florida has been extremely high as new concepts are moving into the marketplace due to the mass exoduses from New York City and California. With the major population shift, we are running into the issue of limited supply to lease. Vacancy rates are currently projected at 3.8 percent, which is approximately 100 basis points below the 10-year historical average. Vacancy rates are projected to meet the mid-4 percent range by the end of 2023 due to the expected completion of more than 700,000 square feet of retail space during the fourth quarter, according to research from CoStar Group. Some developers are backing out of ground-up development deals due to the heightened labor and construction costs that every firm is experiencing. However, there are still some notable developments occurring in certain trade areas such as Minneola, Lake Nona, Apopka (Kelly Park) and Davenport, which are just some of the areas with projects expected to deliver in the fourth quarter of this year. These new ground-up projects require lessees to pay a higher rent to make these deals pencil out. The current average asking rate in Orlando is $27.77 per square foot, well ahead of …

September 25, 2023

Florida Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Orlando Tenants Are Attracted to Quality Office Space as Rental Rates Rise

by John Nelson September 18, 2023

The Orlando office market saw improved office activity in the second quarter after a somewhat slow start to the year. Quarter-over-quarter, the average deal size rose by 11.2 percent with Downtown, South Orlando and East Orlando as the three submarkets benefitting from an increase in office leasing activity. The majority of institutional landlords in downtown Orlando are some of the early adopters of flight-to-quality phenomenon, and as a result, tenants from other submarkets have shifted their focus to the city’s Central Business District (CBD). On the other hand, South Orlando enjoys a built-in advantage of having perhaps the greatest number of restaurant options in the greater Orlando area, with easy access to both Sand Lake Road and Millenia Mall areas offering various food options. The need to be co-located with some of the military branches located in Central Florida Research Park drives many simulation and military/defense sector tenants to seek office space in East Orlando, also providing nearby access to the University of Central Florida. Aside from geographical location, more and more tenants are seeking out higher-quality office space while rightsizing their footprint. This is predominantly fueled by flex/remote office schedules combined with the need for employers to provide an …

September 18, 2023

Florida Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Orlando Finds Strength as One of Nation’s Top Multifamily Markets

by John Nelson September 11, 2023

Orlando remains one of the strongest multifamily markets nationally despite the slowdown being experienced in commercial real estate at large. Its strength is largely defined by growth in rent, supply, upcoming development opportunities, employment and the local economy, which have all contributed to healthy fundamentals. Being a top U.S. tourism destination has also helped with more than 74 million visitors coming to Orlando in 2022. Local tourism has created 212,000 jobs as of year-end 2021, and the city is home to nine world-renowned theme parks that are frequented by tourists. Orlando has also proven to be a very attractive and viable place to live long-term. The city is the fourth-largest in Florida, with an estimated population of more than 312,200 in 2023 and over 2 million within the metropolitan statistical area (MSA). The area’s population growth has supported multifamily growth opportunities, ensuring there is a vast renter pool and demand for the inventory that continues to be delivered. That has propelled rent growth up with submarkets like Colonial Town and Florida Center North, which are still posting year-over-year increases between 10 and 16 percent, significantly higher than the national average. Overall supply has also held up well with 6,103 units …

September 11, 2023

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