Southeast Market Reports

Charlotte's retail sector has been robust with activity in the past several months, with positive signs on the horizon. Residential development in Charlotte has been driving a rise in retail projects, particularly in the city’s infill areas, such as SouthPark and the South End. For instance, more than 1,200 apartment units are under construction or planned in the South End area. This has led to more urbanized retail, including a 55,000-square-foot Publix that is under construction on four acres at South Boulevard and Iverson Way. The site will also include structured parking and additional shops. Publix has also announced a new location in Ballantyne Town Center, located at Providence Road West and Johnston Road, which is scheduled to open in early 2014. When Harris Teeter announced that it had hired JP Morgan to sell the company, rumors were rampant and there has been a lot of speculation that Publix was a likely buyer. Most industry insiders do not think that this is likely, so it will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out. In the meantime, Publix continues to scour opportunities for new locations throughout the Charlotte market, adding a new player in the highly competitive grocery sector. …

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Charlotte has become one of the most desirable and sought-after investment markets in the nation with a diverse economy fueling job growth, attracting new talent and enticing investors. In fact, Charlotte had the largest population growth rate for urban areas of 1 million people or more in the decade from 2000 to 2010 and is expected to increase its population by another quarter-million people by 2020, fueled by diverse industries such as banking, energy, healthcare, manufacturing and transportation. With 37,000 jobs created in 2012, Charlotte’s employment has added back every job lost during the recent recession, eclipsing its previous high-water mark set in 2007. Approximately 50 companies have announced major expansions or relocations in the Charlotte area over the past year-and-a-half. Highlights include Metlife announcing plans to establish a hub for its U.S. retail business in Charlotte bringing 1,300 jobs to the city and Convergys, the business process outsourcing giant, announced plans to create 1,600 jobs. From a multifamily operations perspective, the Charlotte MSA has seen outstanding performance over the last two years with both total occupancy and average rents at their highest levels in the past 10 years. With current occupancy levels above 95 percent (increased by approximately 490 …

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While most office markets are bifurcated between Class A and the rest, the Triangle market has a particularly pronounced disparity that is driving market trends. In the first quarter of 2013, Class A vacancy was 12.7 percent — nearly half that of both Class B (24.7 percent) and Class C (23.0 percent). The playing field, in terms of both tenant desires and rental rate differential economics, is skewed heavily in favor of Class A space, which currently only has six options for tenants seeking blocks 50,000 square feet or greater. Not even projects currently under construction, including the NC State Employees Credit Union’s downtown Raleigh headquarters and Diamond View III in downtown Durham, offer available space in that range. Class A vacancy is at its lowest rate in nearly five years and is only slightly above the 11 percent range that spurred the office building boom between 2005 and 2007. The lack of available large blocks has already resulted in lost opportunities and market timing mismatches for potential preleasing or build-to-suit tenants, such as Wyrick Robbins Yates & Ponton. The law firm recently renewed and expanded its lease in place at The Summit in the West Raleigh submarket, due to …

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The Washington, D.C., area boasts the lowest unemployment rate among major metros, at 5.5 percent as of February 2013, which is about two percentage points below the total U.S. unemployment rate of 7.6 percent. In the 12 months prior to February 2013, the area fell only behind New York, Los Angeles Basin and Houston in terms of job growth, with 39,700 new jobs created. At the same time in 2012, retailers shed approximately 1,100 jobs. While the effects of sequestration legislation are still unknown, the projected job growth from 2013 to 2017 is estimated to average 48,100 per annum. Two rapidly growing industry sectors are cybersecurity and healthcare. The Washington area also has an average household income of $108,400, making it an impressive 59 percent higher than the U.S. average. Incomes grew by 43 percent from 2000 to 2012, compared to 20 percent nationally. By 2017, the area’s average income is estimated to rise 14 percent, still higher than 13 percent nationally. Retail inventory (all types) for the Washington metro area totals approximately 220 million square feet. As of March 2013, the overall vacancy rate was 4.8 percent — the lowest in the nation. The market has seen no overall …

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Orlando has always shown an uncanny ability to grow, diversify and prosper, all while shrugging off a few economic hiccups along the way. Now, it appears that “the City Beautiful” is doing it again, with apartment development leading the way. Not since Lincoln Property Co. built the 164-unit Aspire apartments in 2008 has any significant multifamily rental development taken place in downtown Orlando. Yet, over the next two years more than 2,000 new rental apartment units are expected to dot the downtown landscape. This represents an untested pace for downtown, higher than any other two-year stretch in Orlando’s history. Although the addition of this many units may raise some concern (especially understanding Orlando’s history of overbuilding), several well established multifamily developers have taken a deeper look into Orlando’s urban lifestyle; and they like what they see. It would appear that through a mix of public/private partnerships, infrastructure improvements and quality of life, downtown is on the verge of moving one step closer in its quest of becoming one of the most robust “live-work” cities in the U.S. Laying the foundation for its continued transformation is the nearly $5 billion in capital investments that have been, or are being, invested in …

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“Hot” does not adequately describe Miami’s current residential real estate climate. Back from the brink of extinction in late 2009, the residential condominium market in Miami is currently booming. The apartment market is booming as well, but did not take it on the chin like the condominium market did. From 2009 to 2010, Greater Downtown Miami was considered one of the most overbuilt markets in the country. Developers delivered approximately 34,000 condos in the market in a six-year period, more than double what was delivered in the prior 40 years. The majority of those units came on line during the crash, which left Miami with an unsold inventory or more than 20,000 units in early 2010. Forecasters expected it would take 10 or more years for that inventory to be absorbed. Today that inventory of developer-owned units is down to less than 900, according to Condo Vultures, Miami’s condo watchdog. One can almost say that Brazil and Argentina brought back Miami’s high-rise condominium market. Brazilians and Argentineans in particular, but not exclusively, have experienced hyperinflation — to the point of scheduling the purchase of groceries on payday — like few others. They therefore have an acute understanding of the need …

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Overall, the Atlanta real estate market has continued to improve. Low interest rates have helped stabilize assets and attract new business, with manufacturing leading the way. At the end of first quarter 2012, CoStar Group reported the overall Atlanta industrial vacancy rate was 15.5 percent. For the same period ending in 2013, CoStar reported the vacancy had fallen to 12.7 percent. Those numbers have not come easy and are a true testament to the quality of Atlanta’s real estate brokers, landlords and owners who have shown a creative ability to solve problems and make deals. The past 12 months have been filled with exciting new project announcements, including build-to-suits. Among the companies that have announced construction projects include Baxter Healthcare, Porsche, PPG, Caterpillar, Hill Phoenix and Mitsubishi. Additionally, companies such as US Lumber, Subaru, American Building Supply, Atlanta Bonded, Carters and Decoster have recently expanded, filling existing vacancies in the market. While the list is impressive, we need more expansion from the existing industry. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Atlanta’s MSA was 5.4 million in 2012, which included 1.9 million households. STDB Online data service projects that the Atlanta MSA population will increase at an average …

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Birmingham — Alabama's largest apartment market — is in the midst of a continued recovery from the economic downturn. The city posted a net-gain in jobs, occupancy and rental rates, which has helped spur new development, particularly at close-in urban locations. Last year was a turnaround year for Birmingham. The city gained 700 jobs and the Birmingham-Hoover unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 percent by December, two percentage points below the national average, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gain in jobs was the first annual increase since 2007. For the apartment market, 2012 results were strong: a 2 percent increase in occupancy pushed occupancy rates to 93.2 percent market-wide. Additionally, rent levels increased by 3.2 percent in 2011 and 1.9 percent in 2012, according to MPF Research. The favorable market dynamics have drawn the attention of regional and national investors, which has led to healthy transaction and development volume. In 2012, 27 apartment complexes traded in the Birmingham MSA, totaling approximately $300 million in volume. Both local owners and several owners headquartered in New York and Florida, for example, made significant investments in Birmingham, including the CLK Properties acquisition of the five-property Park Lane portfolio in April. On …

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It looks like the worst may be over for the Tampa Bay office market, and 2013 is shaping up to be the best year for investment sales and leasing activity since before the start of the recession. The health of the local office market is directly tied to job growth, and professional and business services employment has increased over the past few years. With additional job growth forecast in 2013, tenant expansions could develop as the year progresses. Many tenants weighing moves to larger spaces in the near term will monitor available spaces and advance timetables in the event vacancy in their target locations falls rapidly. For owners of Tampa Bay office properties, the news comes at a great time, as they should see some relief from high vacancies in 2013. That said, additional tenant demand will be needed to make a significant dent in the overall vacancy rate and support more substantive rent growth. Overall, the Tampa/St Petersburg office market ended the fourth quarter of 2012 with a vacancy rate of 13.6 percent, which was down from the previous quarter. Net absorption totaled 356,991 square feet, which was a vast improvement over the negative 390,098 square feet recorded in …

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In the decade between 1997-2007, a massive amount of retail development swept the country, and Birmingham — like much of the Southeast — was considered a demographic sweet spot. During this 10-year period, the majority of the population was at a peak buying age, the economy was performing well and most of the population was experiencing higher income levels. In Alabama, developers and retailers alike scrambled to keep up with the growth by building new shopping centers anchored by big and junior box concepts in every major town across the state. Then the recession hit. As the market continued to slow, big and junior box retailers experienced decreasing sales and an overabundance of square footage brought new development pipelines to a halt. Despite a growing desire among today’s retailers to lease new space, the market is lacking supply. Now that big box development has largely stopped in Birmingham and retailers are starting to downsize, there is virtually no development pipeline for new shopping centers within the suburban markets. Competition for prime leasable space within these suburban locations has become fierce. Retailers, medical office tenants, and restaurants are all now vying for the same spaces that were built 10 years ago. …

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