It looks like the worst may be over for the Tampa Bay office market, and 2013 is shaping up to be the best year for investment sales and leasing activity since before the start of the recession. The health of the local office market is directly tied to job growth, and professional and business services employment has increased over the past few years. With additional job growth forecast in 2013, tenant expansions could develop as the year progresses. Many tenants weighing moves to larger spaces in the near term will monitor available spaces and advance timetables in the event vacancy in their target locations falls rapidly. For owners of Tampa Bay office properties, the news comes at a great time, as they should see some relief from high vacancies in 2013. That said, additional tenant demand will be needed to make a significant dent in the overall vacancy rate and support more substantive rent growth. Overall, the Tampa/St Petersburg office market ended the fourth quarter of 2012 with a vacancy rate of 13.6 percent, which was down from the previous quarter. Net absorption totaled 356,991 square feet, which was a vast improvement over the negative 390,098 square feet recorded in …
Southeast Market Reports
In the decade between 1997-2007, a massive amount of retail development swept the country, and Birmingham — like much of the Southeast — was considered a demographic sweet spot. During this 10-year period, the majority of the population was at a peak buying age, the economy was performing well and most of the population was experiencing higher income levels. In Alabama, developers and retailers alike scrambled to keep up with the growth by building new shopping centers anchored by big and junior box concepts in every major town across the state. Then the recession hit. As the market continued to slow, big and junior box retailers experienced decreasing sales and an overabundance of square footage brought new development pipelines to a halt. Despite a growing desire among today’s retailers to lease new space, the market is lacking supply. Now that big box development has largely stopped in Birmingham and retailers are starting to downsize, there is virtually no development pipeline for new shopping centers within the suburban markets. Competition for prime leasable space within these suburban locations has become fierce. Retailers, medical office tenants, and restaurants are all now vying for the same spaces that were built 10 years ago. …
With the presidential election and fiscal cliff behind us, the mood among retailers, developers and brokers in the Baton Rouge market has turned to cautious optimism. This year, expect continued growth at a measured pace in the Baton Rouge retail market. The Baton Rouge MSA is made up of nine parishes with a total population of 820,000. Over the past two years, the Baton Rouge MSA has seen employment growth increase at an average rate of 0.5 percent, with an unemployment rate currently at 6.2 percent, well under the national average. Home sales in 2012 were up 13.8 percent as compared to 2011, with average sales prices also increasing by 0.3 percent. The Baton Rouge retail market is comprised of 12 million square feet. The market experienced slight improvement in 2012 with the vacancy rate down to 9 percent. Most of the vacancy is concentrated in less affluent areas in centers built prior to 1985. Mirroring the national trend, month-to-month retail sales for East Baton Rouge Parish increased in 2012 as compared to 2011. On average, sales are 7.1 percent higher than 2011 and are on pace to return to pre-recession levels. In 2012 Baton Rouge saw several retailers expand …
The largest challenge facing the Greenville/Spartanburg industrial market is the lack of quality industrial buildings. So, how did we go from the worst recession in recent memory to a shortage of available industrial space? With the recession and the 2012 election behind us, the industrial sector has stabilized and continues to improve. Much like the rest of the country, the effects of the Great Recession were felt in the Greenville/Spartanburg market, which experienced higher-than-normal vacancy rates, lack of leasing activity and depressed rental rates. Companies planning for expansion and growth during the recession — and that ultimately survived the tough years — have recovered to the point of near-normal business. In the past few years, these companies have been able to implement their growth plans, after being on hold for an extended period. Many businesses experienced a delay in business growth, ultimately resulting in pent-up demand. The companies that were waiting to expand took advantage of the symptoms of a slowly recovering market, including depressed rental rates and high vacancy levels, to expand or enter the market at historically rental rates. In conversations with prospective clients, often times I help provide clarification on the current status of the Greenville/Spartanburg industrial …
Momentum. In a word, that’s how 2012 ended in the Memphis industrial market. Nearly 3 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2012 helped the market end the year with 2.3 million square feet in positive absorption — setting the tone for what we expect to be a solid 2013. The uptick in fourth quarter net absorption caused vacancy rates to fall to 12.5 percent, down from a high of more than 13 percent. But those vacancy rates can be a bit misleading when you look specifically at Class A space, where vacancy rates are at 10.4 percent. In 2009, industrial development in Memphis totaled only 743,000 square feet in combined under construction and delivered space. Things began improving in 2010 and 2011, with approximately 2 million square feet under construction and/or delivered in both years. In 2012, that number increased by 50 percent to more than 3.1 million square feet. What’s particularly noteworthy about construction activity in 2012 is that it includes speculative development, something the market hasn’t seen in quite a while. IDI has already delivered one spec building totaling 286,000 square feet and has another 870,000-square-foot spec building under construction, both in DeSoto …
The Atlanta metro has been named one of the top cities for job growth and the population is rising at one of the fastest paces in the country, creating high demand for rental housing that will persist. Last year, an average of 200 residents per day moved into the area, and nearly 21 percent of the entire metro population falls within the prime renter cohort, which includes people between 20 and 34 years old. Uncertainty in the housing market is driving up the age of the first-time homebuyer. As many young adults form rental households in lieu of ownership, they will likely choose to live in modern, luxury apartments near entertainment and business districts. Meanwhile, in the single-family market, permitting activity remains well below prerecession levels and sales of existing single-family homes are just 57 percent of peaks reached before the recession, confirming that many of these new residents are looking for rentals. Apartment construction is at an all-time low this year, and demand for units will outpace new supply by more than seven times. As a result, vacancy will fall to the lowest point in over a decade, allowing operators to boost rents and match prerecession peaks. Looking at …
Population growth is a direct result of the lifestyle advantages we enjoy in the Triangle region, which include our mild climate as well as educational opportunities and future employment options. People continue to move to the area, with approximately 225,000 new citizens expected by 2015. These new citizens expect jobs and recent estimates indicated an increase of approximately 12,500 jobs in 2012. It’s not the high job growth of the late ’90s through mid-2000, but it was an improvement over the last three years. With so many new people coming to the Triangle, and many unable to sell their homes in depressed markets, the need for apartments has grown considerably. The Triangle apartment market has been on fire with the latest report indicating a vacancy rate of 5.5 percent. In addition almost 6,000 apartment units are currently under construction. The combination of population growth, housing demands and disposable income are key ingredients to our vibrant retail market. In 2011, there was an increase in retail construction of approximately 900,000 square feet, resulting in minimal absorption and continued vacancy at 6 percent. In 2012, construction dropped to just over 300,000 square feet and despite vacancies in strip centers, overall vacancy dropped …
The Nashville metropolitan statistical area (MSA) comprises 13 counties and a population of approximately 1.45 million, which represents a 47.2 percent increase since 1990, nearly 2.5 times the national average of 19.2 percent for the same period. With a host of world-class companies like Dell, Nissan, HCA and Sprint PCS, Nashville has become a destination for a young, progressive generation of families. Over the past decade, the Nashville area saw tremendous increases in several areas: population growth in the region has gone from 53rd in the United States to 38th and income growth in the region rose from 138th in the United States to 49th. That takes the region from five percent below the U.S. median household income average to seven percent above it. Diverse and Growing Economy The Nashville region’s economy is diverse and thriving. Low unemployment, consistent job growth, substantial outside investment, and a well-trained labor force combine to make Nashville an attractive city for business. Nashville enjoys an unemployment rate that is historically below the national average, ending the year at 6.95 percent (compared to 8.3 percent for the nation). Nashville’s diverse economic mix is led by the manufacturing and healthcare industries, followed by publishing and printing, …
The Charlotte, N.C., apartment market is well into its recovery; 2012 proved to be a strong year with improving fundamentals, healthy transaction volume and the formation of a robust new development pipeline. The exceptional year that Charlotte experienced in 2012 was not fully anticipated at year’s end 2011. However, MPF Research’s second quarter report (July 2012) showed Charlotte’s year-over-year rent growth at 6.8 percent, placing it third in the top 10 markets for rent growth nationally (of the top 50 national markets). This trend was reinforced by MPF’s third quarter publication which reported year-over-year rent growth of 6.3 percent. This marked the fourth straight quarter of year-over-year rent growth in excess of 6 percent. In addition, the report showed overall market occupancy levels of 95.9 percent, the second highest achieved in 14 years. Such favorable news serves as confirmation that the Charlotte economy has remained strong through the financial crisis, as banking sector jobs have remained largely intact and the overall economy of Charlotte is more diverse than many once thought. As a result of the favorable market dynamics, Charlotte’s visibility amidst the national investment landscape has increased, causing investors, developers and lenders alike to take note. Charlotte has quickly …
The office market in the Baltimore metropolitan statistical area — which encompasses the counties of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, Howard, and the eastern portion of Carroll County, as well as Baltimore City — experienced a slight uptick in activity in the fourth quarter of 2012. The market saw a 0.49 percent decrease in direct vacancy, dropping from 15.77 percent in the third quarter of 2012 to 15.28 percent in the fourth quarter. This dip is attributed to nearly 100,000 square feet of positive absorption within the overall market. As with any statistical number, a closer look at these numbers reveals several patterns that may or may not be indicative of larger economic trends within the market. The northern part of the market, consisting of Baltimore and Harford counties, saw negative absorption of 100,531 square feet. The 0.44 percent increase is directly attributed to office properties in Harford County entering the market at various levels of occupancy, including a 75,493-square-foot building outside the U.S. Army’s Aberdeen Proving Ground that entered the market completely vacant. Further inspection of activity throughout the north part of the market indicates that small and medium size tenants — firms under 20,000 square feet — are still …