The Hampton Roads metropolitan area of southeastern Virginia, named for both the Norfolk-Virginia Beach metro area it encompasses and the body of water that surrounds it, is unlike most other U.S. markets. Its huge military presence, which includes the Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Marines and the largest Naval base in the world, helps keep this market on an even keel, as do the estimated 6 million people who visit its tourism haven, Virginia Beach, each year. Consequently, this growing market has not been hit nearly as hard by the retail downturn as others. The seven cities that chiefly comprise the Hampton Roads trade area—Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, Chesapeake, Newport News, Portsmouth and Suffolk—are expected to show a combined population well in excess of 2 million when the 2010 census is tallied, up from 1.6 million at last count. There has been some softening in retail demand. Like elsewhere, landlords have had to re-adjust expectations. Those willing to be aggressive and creative are getting deals done, though certainly not at the same numbers as just 3 years ago. While small businesses seem more willing to look at new opportunities, one overriding issue continues to be tenants’ inability to obtain financing. …
Southeast Market Reports
The Orlando multifamily market has exhibited noticeable improvement this year, and is gaining momentum toward a very strong recovery. After 3 years of rent and occupancy losses due largely to the global recession, apartment fundamentals in Central Florida have registered gains again in 2010. With more than 207,000 new jobs expected locally through 2015 and a very favorable supply/demand balance during the next few years, investors see strong upside in the Orlando apartment market moving forward. Sales volume in Orlando has increased significantly through mid-year, and is up from the historic lows of 2009. Through June, the local market has seen approximately $188 million in multifamily sales — already approaching last year’s total of $219 million but still largely off the 2005 high of $3.2 billion. Cap rates have compressed considerably during the last several months, and most buyers are securing Freddie Mac debt on new acquisitions. Lenders have been the most active sellers in 2010 thus far, and institutional buyers have returned to the acquisition market. New private equity groups — both national and foreign — have also been drawn to Orlando during the last 12 months. Average rents are projected to increase about 1 percent in the second …
The writing was on the wall. Some read it; others ignored it. Regardless of the strategy, retail development came to a halt in 2008. A few single-tenant buildings were developed, but most ground-up projects went into a holding pattern. Two years later, most of those projects are still on hold or moving very slowly at best. From power centers and mixed-use developments to strip centers and grocery-anchored centers, development activity remains stagnant throughout the Peach State. Hardest hit are the secondary and tertiary markets where developers built shopping centers based primarily on residential growth projections. Unfortunately, those projected communities were never built. Many retailers in those markets have struggled, and some have closed their doors. As national retailers look for space again, shopping centers in those markets will be low on their list, furthering the decline of these centers. How Will Developers Survive? The old cliché — location, location, location — holds true. Developers with good projects in prime locations will make it through the cycle by adapting to the changing market conditions with the short-term focus on cash flow and long-term focus on value. However, several fundamental tactics are needed to survive this economic cycle: • Asset Stabilization: One …
Orlando retail vacancy will rise again in 2010, partly as a result of significant blocks of vacant space in properties built during the past few years. While slumping demand has affected all vintages of assets, the vacancy rate in shopping centers constructed since 2007 topped 20 percent last year, much more than the marketwide rate for all properties. Continuing softness in the job market will reduce store visits and suppress spending, further influencing spacial demand and limiting the number of tenants available to fill new shopping centers. Additions to supply will not be a major factor this year, however, as completions will fall to the lowest annual level in at least 30 years. Housing starts, typically a precursor of retail property development, declined for four consecutive years through the end of 2009. Home building will likely remain depressed in 2010 while the economy continues to stabilize, thereby deterring retail developers. Following a year in which 39,400 jobs were eliminated, employers in Orlando will trim 1,000 positions this year, a 0.1 percent decrease. Completions will drop from 900,000 square feet in 2009 to 300,000 square feet this year. Falling rents and rising vacancy will force the delays of some developments currently …
Increasing vacancies mean increased worries for Atlanta’s commercial property owners, but also more options for the city’s tenants. How soon will the market regain some stability? Office The big uncertainty facing the 125 million-square-foot and 22 percent-vacant Atlanta office market in 2010 is whether or not increased leasing activity will outpace recession-induced tenant downsizing/rightsizing and result in occupancy growth. On the demand side, the approximately 1.5 million square feet of leases signed during fourth quarter 2009 represented a nearly 30 percent drop from the previous quarter. Notable transactions inked include those by KPMG, with a multi-floor renewal at SunTrust Plaza in downtown Atlanta. In Buckhead, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey decreased its footprint, renewing 92,000 square feet at Atlanta Financial Center. In the suburbs, Cox Enterprises committed to approximately 95,000 square feet at 9000 Central Park, with its subsidiary, AutoTrader, in negotiations at 3003 Summit Blvd. for up to 400,000 square feet. Meanwhile, increasing vacancy and downward pressure on rental rates are luring tenants into the market to search for deals. Major tenants checking out Atlanta space at the start of 2010 included Alston & Bird, with a 400,000-square-foot requirement; Kilpatrick Stockton (240,000 square feet); and an unnamed corporate relocation, dubbed “Project …
Do you remember how it feels to be on a wild rollercoaster ride, excited and confused, trying to make sense of the ride yet wondering when it will end? That’s exactly what developers, brokers, retailers and landowners are feeling in the commercial retail market. Although Macon finds itself somewhat insulated from what major retail markets are feeling during the “Great Recession,” it is certainly not immune to the prolonged effect of this economic downturn. With the lack of financing, local and regional developers have had to adjust the delivery of their projects in the wealthy submarket of North Macon and the South Bibb County area. While they too recognize Macon as somewhat of an insulated market, they are not blind to the fact that nationally some major retailers have closed, rental rates are declining, vacancy exceeds 20 percent and negative absorption is beginning to rear its ugly head. The Shoppes at River Crossing, Macon’s newest lifestyle center on Riverside Drive, hit a speed bump with the departure of Circuit City, but has quickly recovered with the recent announcement of Jo-Ann Fabrics & Crafts’ lease of a 20,331-square-foot building. With a commitment from a major anchor, Fickling and Co. is moving …
The Tampa market has passed through the most severe phase of the recession, a period during which the apartment vacancy rate climbed 360 basis points. In some Pinellas County submarkets, vacancy will surpass 11 percent this year as the local unemployment rate exceeds metro and state levels, while subdued population growth will reduce housing demand. Hillsborough County submarkets, meanwhile, will fare somewhat better as completions slow. Still, sluggish demand will be behind apartment performance, forcing owners to continue to offer concessions to maintain sufficient occupancy levels. The metro area’s vacancy rate is expected to be among the highest in the country this year, and revenues will contract sharply. In 2010, employers will cut 4,000 jobs, a 0.3 percent reduction, but an improvement from last year, when 51,000 positions were eliminated. Developers are forecast to complete 1,000 units this year, down from 1,400 new rentals in 2009. Planned projects total about 5,100 units, or 3 percent of existing stock. Although supply growth will ease in 2010, demand will remain weak, resulting in a 30 basis point rise in vacancy to 10.8 percent. Last year, vacancy climbed 180 basis points. This year, asking rents should fall 3.8 percent to $767 per month, …
The Jackson office market remains strong, with occupancy rates of 81 percent and average rental rates of $19 per square foot. As the state capital, government is the driving force for local real estate, and recently, the public sector has been working with private developers to establish partnerships. With more than $600 million in private and public development during the last couple of years in the CBD, companies are intrigued by downtown’s revitalization. The King Edward restoration by HRI Properties, Watkins Partners and Deuce McAllister is an example of where local government property was transformed into a new 186-room Hilton Garden Inn combined with 64 newly leased apartments. Fondren Place is another public/private partnership where Peters Real Estate and The Mattiace Company partnered with Jackson Public Schools to convert a former school to boutique shops, restaurant space and a new 37,500-square-foot office building with retail space. The construction of the Jackson Convention Complex has spurred hotel development to support Jackson’s first convention center with the nearly completed Sleep Inn and the newly renovated Clarion Hotel Roberts Walthall. Eley Guild Hardy Architects fell in love with a Neo-Classical Revival-style former bank and is transforming it into a LEED-certified building for its …
To take measure of the recession’s effect on office transactions in the Washington market, simply watch the city’s tenant base. In a town where the market-wide vacancy rate is 10.8 percent, lessees are being very careful about any real estate moves they make. Tenants who are active are obtaining short-term deals, hoping a brighter day is in the immediate future. “Getting decisions made takes considerably more time than in years past,” says Wendy Feldman Block of Studley’s Washington office. “Although some people feel that tenants are showing less hesitancy recently than they were 6 months ago, it’s very painful getting decisions made.” Hesitancy among landlords also is contributing to the city’s transactional slump. These owners are in financial trouble, but tenants are requiring massive tenant improvement packages and free rent before leases are signed. This culture leaves landlords in a bind; they want to get space leased up, but they also have to make money. If tenants were more prevalent, finding other interested parties wouldn’t be a problem, but the tenant pool has become smaller and smaller. “There are too few tenants for too much space — particularly for those who have requirements that are under 50,000 square feet,” she …
The Atlanta multifamily market has experienced a 200-point jump in its vacancy rate when compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The market-wide total rate is sitting at 12. 5 percent, and the rate for Class B and Class C properties is a few percentage points higher. These numbers are, of course, a function of the recession and the overall lack of job stability in the city. When the jobs return, says Andrew Mays of Marcus & Millichap’s Atlanta office, the vacancy rate will start to recede. “Unemployment is the main deterrent to multifamily growth,” he says. “It’s such a function of the job market right now, and until we work our way through this, it’s going to take a little while to get that number back in check. Ideally, Atlanta performs much better around the high single digits.” Increased transactions from high net-worth buyers from South Florida, the Northeast and Chicago, along with the occasional foreign spender, has helped prevent a complete shutdown of the market. Mays says the number of transactions, and interest from international investors, will increase once lenders release more distressed assets onto the market. “Moving forward, It’s not going to be ‘06 or ‘07 …