Texas Market Reports

TREB-SURVEYCHART1

By Taylor Williams In late October, Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, gave a virtual speech in which he carried a glass jar with the word “transitory” labeled on it. Inside the jar were wadded-up dollar bills, deposited by Bostic’s staff members each time they used the word “transitory” to describe the surge in prices of consumer goods and services. The exercise was meant to dispel the notion that the current inflationary environment would be fleeting or short-lived. Based on the results of Texas Real Estate Business’ annual reader forecast survey, commercial brokers and developers/managers in the Lone Star State aren’t likely to be contributing to that fund any time soon. When asked to identify the macroeconomic force that was most likely to impact the commercial real estate industry in 2022, both of these groups selected inflationary pressures over supply chain constraints, pandemic restrictions, the $1 trillion infrastructure bill and employment/gross domestic product (GDP) growth. It’s worth noting that the survey officially closed on Monday, Dec. 13, about a week before the nation began to see a major surge in COVID-19 cases, most of which were classified as the Omicron variant.  In the subsequent three-week period, …

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WestBend-Fort-Worth

By Taylor Williams The factors that have long enticed Texas retailers and restaurants to locate in mixed-use environments are back in full force, such that these users are once again willing to pay a premium for spaces built-in density and walkability.  In some ways, this trend never really disappeared in Texas, one of the first states to reopen during the early months of COVID-19. Through measures passed in 2020 like sanctioning to-go alcohol sales and allowing businesses to stay open, albeit at reduced capacities, Texas has worked to minimize retail and restaurant closures and prevent large volumes of these spaces from being returned to markets.  Neither has the state’s job and population growth slowed during the 22-month global health crisis, allowing developers across all asset classes to push forward. In addition, the newfound desire from consumers and businesses to work, shop and dine outdoors as much as possible has kept trains rolling on mixed-use projects, which inherently connect different uses through external features like trails, open streets, pocket parks and plazas. From a design standpoint, those connective features remain critically important, says Barry Hand, principal in the Dallas office of global architecture firm Gensler. “Pocket or linear parks are viewed …

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Search-Plaza-Dallas

By Mike Otillio, research director, Colliers The Dallas office market and North Texas region as a whole continue to evolve as leading destinations for corporate relocations, led in part by a favorable business climate.  This reputation as a top landing spot for regional workforce consolidations and outright relocations from other states has helped Dallas become a national leader in some key back-to-work metrics. According to research from security firm Kastle Systems, which monitors keycard, fob and app usage within thousands of office buildings across the country, the average occupancy rate in December across 10 of the country’s biggest markets was 40.6 percent. Dallas was one of the 10 markets tracked in the report, posting an above-average occupancy rate of 52.3 percent. The basic business-friendly climate and healthy pace of job and population growth, along with evidence that users are making stronger pushes to return to their workspaces, have accelerated the market’s office investment sales recovery for value-add, core-plus and stabilized product.  Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as a prolonged spike in cases from the Omicron variant, we expect this trend to continue through 2022. Dallas recorded several notable sales of iconic office assets in 2021, plus numerous deals for suburban …

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Presidium-Hill-Street

By John Griggs, co-founder, co-CEO, Presidium Everything is bigger in Texas, including the opportunity for apartment investment, development and absorption — and the nation is catching on.  In 2021, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) again led the country in the number of multifamily units delivered, adding more than 20,000 new residences for the fourth year in a row. With the thriving economy, lower taxes, central location and an influx of people moving to the area via natural net migration and corporate relocations, it’s not surprising that the demand for apartment units is at an all-time high. A study from RealPage reported that the issuance of North Texas apartment building permits saw a 27 percent uptick in the 12-month period between September 2020 and 2021, one of the heftiest increases among the 10 largest U.S. markets.  While the hyper growth the DFW area is experiencing is a positive thing, it’s shaping the economic landscape so rapidly that developers have to adapt efficiently and effectively. Supply chain issues and production bottlenecks are further complicating this equation.  Desirability Brings Demand  A clear benefit for us in the current North Texas real estate industry is that population, job opportunities and incomes are surging. The flood of …

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Teel-Crossing-East-Frisco

By Philip Levy, senior managing director, investments, Marcus & Millichap The Dallas retail climate is more favorable entering 2022 than it has been for most of the COVID-19 crisis.  Overall, the marketwide retail vacancy rate fell 50 basis points during the first three quarters of 2021, ending at an even 6 percent in September. Nevertheless, that rate is about 100 basis points above the pre-pandemic level. A strong rebound in tenant demand is helping lower vacancy, however, with net absorption across the opening nine months of 2021 totaling more than 2.2 million square feet, compared with a net loss of 1.5 million square feet in 2020.  Additionally, the construction pipeline has shrunk considerably, helping mitigate supply-side pressure as the market bounces back. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, less than 1 million square feet of new retail product with an expected completion date in 2022 was under construction in the greater Dallas area. This is a sharp contrast to the 2 million-plus square feet that developers delivered in each year between 2014 and 2020. Strengthening demand drivers amid a reduction in development suggest that downward pressure on vacancy will continue in the coming quarters.  New Households Spend Near-term uncertainty …

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Sunnyvale-Business-Center

By Conrad Madsen, SIOR, co-founder and partner, Paladin Partners; and Kipp Collins, partner, Paladin Partners Just 20 years ago, the conventional wisdom and commonly held belief throughout the Dallas commercial real estate scene was that office and retail were preferable sectors to be in versus industrial. Looking back and reflecting on how industrial has gone from ugly duckling to white swan in just 20 short years, we can’t help but be glad that we didn’t take that advice. Led by Amazon, e-commerce has truly changed the world, and certainly industrial real estate by extension.  Everyone talks about how e-commerce is what’s driving the explosion of warehouse and distribution center development and absorption across Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and beyond. But the fact of the matter is, e-commerce still only accounts for about 14 percent of total retail sales, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Think about that for a moment — the current proportion of 14 percent leaves a tremendous amount of room for additional growth. Demand for warehouse and distribution space is through the roof; developers can’t build warehouses fast enough these days, and yet the market is nowhere close to reaching its peak.  Inventory Growth There is …

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CityLine-Richardson

By Taylor Williams Office owners in Texas remain acutely aware of how the pandemic has changed the game and are not shying away from promoting health and wellness within their buildings. According to data from security firm Kastle Systems, which tracks keycard, fob and app access to some 2,600 office buildings across 138 cities and 47 states, office space in America’s largest markets continues to be underutilized. Across the 10 markets that Kastle Systems tracks, including Austin, Houston and Dallas, the average office occupancy rate in early December was 40.6 percent.  Yet the three Texas markets all registered occupancy rates considerably above the national average — 59.3 percent, 54.9 percent and 52.3 percent, respectively — for Austin, Houston and Dallas. A more temperate climate in Texas could bear some responsibility for these above-average performances, given that access to functional outdoor spaces has undeniably become a key tenant demand during the pandemic. Along those lines, tenants have understood for some time now that successfully bringing their employees back to their offices is somewhat contingent on making sure those workers feel safe on the job. The onus, therefore, has fallen on office owners to ensure that their buildings have protocols through which …

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3°-Red-Bluff-Pasadena

By Zack Taylor, senior vice president, Colliers Houston’s industrial market continued to see strong leasing activity in the third quarter. Overall net absorption for 2021 should easily pass 20 million square feet, making it the best year on record by a long shot. For context, Houston’s industrial market has, on average, absorbed between 8 million and 11 million square feet of space per year since 2014. Houston’s North and Southwest submarkets absorbed the most space in the third quarter of this year, led by Lowe’s Home Improvement taking down 1.5 million square feet and Amazon taking 1.9 million square feet in each of those respective submarkets. Total marketwide leasing volume for the year is well over 30 million square feet and does not show any signs of stopping as we hit the midpoint of the fourth quarter. Direct vacancy is continuing its downward trend, but rental rates have largely remained the same on new product. Second-generation infill warehouses are experiencing the greatest increase in rents, especially for tenants with requirements between 20,000 and 50,000 square feet.  Many of these tenants are faced with a dilemma: They can either accept higher rents for their infill locations or relocate to more expensive …

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13501-Katy-Freeway-Houston

By Blake Virgilio, SIOR, CCIM, vice president at Colliers The Houston office market continued its very gradual stabilization with 27,000 square feet of positive absorption in the  third quarter. While that volume of absorption only represents roughly one floor of office space in a typical Houston office building, it’s the first time the market has posted a quarter of positive net absorption in the last two years. The key activities of tenant tours and the return of employees to the office continued to increase throughout the third quarter. Nonetheless, the vacancy rate rose over the course of the quarter by 400 basis points from 22.9 to 23.3 percent, a historical high.  Also in the most recent quarter, Houston’s office inventory increased slightly, with approximately 1 million square feet of new product added. There is still 3.2 million square feet of office space under construction, and most of the new inventory, which is 47 percent preleased, is expected to deliver this year. Of that total new product, about 2.3 million square feet is spec development, of which 60 percent is preleased. Houston has one of the highest physical office occupancy rates in the country, though many larger corporations began phasing their …

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4223-Reseach-Forest-Woodlands

By Jeff Tinsley, senior advisor, SVN | J. Beard Real Estate – Greater Houston As we reach the end of the calendar year, it’s become clear that 2021 has been a year of transition. Many new trends are emerging from the pandemic year of 2020 with regard to retail real estate.   COVID-19-induced trends within shopping, dining and entertainment have given rise to a new generation of retailers to the Houston market. Many quick-service restaurants (QSRs) are looking to reduce store sizes for future locations and focus on streamlining their drive-thru, call in and pick-up order service. Some restaurant concepts are instilling the use of “ghost kitchens” and are aggressively looking to lease second-generation spaces in order to take advantage of the growing takeout and delivery demands.       During the pandemic, one of the hardest-hit sectors was in the restaurant industry. Following months of minimized interaction between customers and proprietors due to dining room closures, we are now seeing a greater increase in pick-up and delivery requirements. Many restaurants are now using new technology and methods in terms of how service is offered, how food is prepared and how kitchen and service areas are designed. Furthermore, many food and …

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