By Sean Sorrell, senior managing director, JLL Last year, San Antonio’s multifamily sector was one of the only markets nationally in which the 2020 absorption exceeded that of previous years. Moreover, the city’s development pipeline was already contracting after 2019, so additional supply reductions in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 should result in rebounding occupancy across the metro. The market is maintaining balance in terms of supply and demand and is poised to elevate its national prominence. The San Antonio multifamily market ‘s overall inventory is approaching 185,000 units, having grown by roughly 8 percent over the last two years. Ongoing supply growth has marginally outpaced demand, but even in the face of COVID-19, the overall market is approximately 92 percent occupied. JLL’s research shows that nationally, more than 6 percent of apartment renters have vacated their units since April 2020, either moving back in within parents or “coupling up” with roommates. San Antonio experienced very little of this effect, with an occupancy loss of less than 1 percent due to this temporary phenomenon. These displaced renters are likely to re-enter the apartment market in the near term, and, with ongoing in-migration, we anticipate the San Antonio market should …
Texas Market Reports
By David Nicolson, president, Weitzman San Antonio In March 2020, health officials first used the term “pandemic” in reference to COVID-19. Since then, our communities, economy, commercial real estate industry and retailers and restaurants have gone through a year of challenges that few could have foreseen at the start of 2020. The fact that today we are in better shape than we could have predicted during the shutdown a year ago shows that the disruptions caused by the pandemic have been met with innovation, creativity and plain hard work. Here in San Antonio, those disruptions did result in a number of retail and restaurant closings. But since the second half of 2020, we’ve seen an upswing in tenant demand. In terms of closings, Sears closed its 150,000-square-foot store at South Park Mall and its approximately 134,000-square-foot store at Rolling Oaks Mall. With these store closings, Sears — once the nation’s largest retailer — no longer has a presence in the San Antonio market. Other closures include Stein Mart (three box vacancies), Pier 1 (five closed stores), Gold’s Gym (three closed locations) and Tuesday Morning (one closed location). Combined, these closings resulted in approximately 564,000 square feet of total vacancy being …
By Jack Stone, director of investment sales, Greysteel “What do you have in El Paso?” The country is over a year into the pandemic, and Greysteel is still receiving calls on a daily basis from groups asking just that. We sold thousands of units in El Paso over the two years leading up to COVID-19, and there’s no end in sight. In fact, even in these uncertain times, demand seems to have grown. Attracted to the higher yields, strong tenant base and increasingly diversified economy, investors are coming to El Paso in droves. It’s no secret that the Texas multifamily market has been hot. Out-of-state groups were first drawn to markets like Dallas, Austin, Houston and San Antonio because they offered higher yields with fewer regulations than markets like New York and California. But it was only a matter of time before even those cities, which are seeing with cap rates begin to compress 4 to 5 percent, got too hot. Investors subsequently began exploring other options and turned to cities like El Paso, where the fundamentals were strong and yields still attractive. Demographic Advantages El Paso’s multifamily market has always had a strong tenant base. New players in the …
By Taylor Williams The past 12 months have thrown multifamily developers a full nine innings’ worth of curveballs, and while many owner-operators have successfully adjusted to the various challenges brought on by the pandemic, they are still tasked with figuring out how much staying power these disruptions will ultimately have. To be sure, the major markets of Texas remain well-positioned for multifamily growth. Even amid a global health crisis, the Lone Star State has maintained its status as a national leader in population growth, having added 374,000 residents between July 2019 and 2020, according to the most current data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The reporting of final census numbers for 2020 has been delayed by the pandemic. But the Texas Legislature has already committed to a redistricting plan that is likely to increase the state’s number of congressional representatives in the coming years — a significant and visible response to its exceptionally healthy population growth. In terms of jobs, no city has garnered more attention for major moves in the past 12 months than Austin, first landing the $1 billion Tesla Gigafactory that will come on line later this year, then receiving a commitment from Oracle to relocate its …
By Travis Secor, senior associate, JLL Nationally, e-commerce and warehouse supply have been the center of the industrial real estate conversation. It’s easy to get lost in the latest data related to the impact of COVID-19 and speculation on where a major online retailer’s newest distribution centers will land. Houston has received its share of the industrial real estate spotlight over the years. The narrative over the past decade will tell a story about the wild vacancy swings experienced through each development cycle, always in perfect harmony with the boom-and-bust oil reputation the city has crafted over the years. Current headlines highlight the possibility of another major glut in warehouse supply resulting from our latest development binge. While the case for an overbuilt market has major validity, you cannot broadly paint Houston’s industrial sector like that. To understand the complexities and nuances of Houston’s industrial market, it’s important to know the unique personalities of each geographic submarket and the events that shaped it. Northeast Houston When oil prices fell to around $10 per barrel in the late 1980s, commercial real estate professionals might not have been bullish on the absorption prospects for the industrial development spree that had taken place …
By Dustin Devine, vice president, Avison Young In 2020, COVID-19 further compounded the issues Houston’s office market was facing with depressed oil and gas prices. With many office users implementing work-from-home policies — although a shift back to the office is in progress — and minimal business travel, there was weak demand for office space in 2020. Houston’s office market is expecting a resurgence of sorts beginning in mid- to late-2021 due to increased vaccine rollouts and work-from-home burnout, along with commodity prices continuing to tick upward. Increased demand will not occur overnight, however, as it will take years to absorb all of the current available space. Most activity at present is expiration-driven. Although Houston’s economy today is more diversified than it was in the 1980s, much of the city’s business either revolves around or touches the oil and gas industry. Avison Young’s recent Office Market Report shows that current citywide office availability is over 25 percent, with nearly 6.5 million square feet of sublease space available. With availability rates and the amount of sublease inventory at such high levels, it is clear that many industries are hurting, including commercial real estate. As a firm, we are doing whatever we …
As one of the fastest-growing markets of the past decade that continues to make headlines for high-profile developments and corporate relocations, Austin has had some economic and demographic cushion from the headwinds brought on by COVID-19 over the past year. While leasing and investment sales activity essentially froze at the onset of the pandemic, as it did in virtually every major U.S. market, Austin’s strong growth in office-using jobs, natural pace of in-migration and vibrant culture all contributed to a swift and stable rebound. With a full year of pandemic living now under the belt, it’s a good time for a by-the-numbers evaluation of the public health crisis’ impacts on various property types within the state capital. In addition, it’s an appropriate point at which to reflect on the degree to which pandemic-accelerated trends like online shopping and working from home are going to influence future deals and projects. These shifts in consumer behavior have major implications for all commercial asset classes. To that end, Texas Real Estate Business conducted a roundtable discussion with leasing and investment sales professionals representing multiple property types at the Austin office of NAI Partners. What follows are their edited responses: Tyler Jaynes: Industrial’s Staying …
By Shawn Ackerman, president of Houston retail, Henry S. Miller Brokerage COVID-19 is on everyone’s mind. From landlords to tenants, all are desperately trying to predict the future, because the past has destroyed many businesses. Retailers such as Luby’s, Chuck E. Cheese, Lane Bryant, 24 Hour Fitness, Gold’s Gym, Pier 1 Imports and Tuesday Morning all filed bankruptcy in 2020. Not only did numerous tenants file for bankruptcy, but many more are also barely holding on. What does the future hold for Houstonians? Only time will tell. Until the market stabilizes, we will continue to compare notes with others in the retail sector on how best to navigate. Of course, market uncertainty is not only a retail issue. The unemployment rate, while down considerably from the double-digit numbers seen at the onset of the pandemic, remains a cause for concern. Laid-off workers don’t have the disposable income they may have had while employed. Many people have thus curbed their shopping habits. Until the job market gains traction, retailers will have to be patient to see the long-term effects of this roller coaster ride. Mall Struggles Continue Heaviest hit in the retail section have been malls. With anchors like J.C. Penney, …
By Mirela Mohan of STORAGECafé The self-storage industry closed 2020 on an upward path, seeing stable or rising rental rates and elevated construction activity across the board after an uncertain year. According to our data, new construction stayed on a steady trajectory throughout the year, with 49.4 million square feet of new product added nationally — slightly less than the volume of new development in 2019. This came as a natural consequence of the high existing inventory which, combined with the shock of the pandemic, eventually led to the asking rate plunge in the first half of 2020. Rates Plunge, Then Revive The existing high inventories put downward pressure on asking rates in 2020, and the arrival of the pandemic only accentuated the existing trend. However, after rents bottomed out at $112 per month in May, street rates started picking up. By December 2020, national street rates had reached $118 per month, a 3.5 percent year-over-year increase. This slow but steady supply growth was mostly linked to consistent demand that emerged from both traditional sources such as moving and downsizing, as well as from new sources created by last year’s disruptive events. For example, college students began to need short-term …
By Mark Wolf, CEO and founder, AHV Communities The single-family rental (SFR) sector began its institutionalization during the Global Financial Crisis when so many homeowners found themselves unable to pay their mortgages. The mass quantity of repossessed homes was sold off on courthouse steps or at large in-person or online auctions, with mega-landlords amassing the homes and renting them out as investments. At the time, that business model was the only one widely recognized or, notably, well capitalized. However, the sector would not ultimately remain a one-trick pony. Alternate visions for single-family rentals have subsequently emerged. The most widely known model, which is oftentimes incorrectly characterized today, is the purpose-built rental community. Built from the ground up and delivered as a contiguous, cohesive communities — basically the opposite of existing randomly located distressed homes purchased and leased — the purpose-built SFR community is on the rise. Texas is currently one of the hottest states for new development of these communities. The activity is undoubtedly fueled by the ongoing in-migration of individuals and families from other states flooding into the Lone Star State in favor of lower taxes, high quality of life, friendly business climate and an overall affordable cost of …