Texas Market Reports

Music-Lane-Austin

By Burdette Huffman, executive vice president, Blue Ox Group Why are people drawn to spend money and time at certain places in a city? What makes someone want to do their shopping, stop for coffee or plan a date night at one spot versus another? Sometimes, it’s a special location or an emotional connection to a particular vendor. But in many instances, the draw is entirely by design. It’s an intentional, strategic urban planning tactic that’s been around for decades, and it’s called placemaking. What Is Placemaking?The concept of placemaking has been around since the 1960s thanks to urban planning pioneers and was bolstered in the 1990s by the smart growth agenda of organizations like the Urban Land Institute. In modern parlance across the state, it’s not much different. Put simply, placemaking is about creating a special place where people want to be. Placemaking is about imagining and then developing a place where parents might want to grab coffee after dropping their kids off at school. Or it’s a place where date nights happen because there’s a great new spot for dinner and maybe space to take a walk or grab a drink afterward. If it’s executed correctly, it’s the …

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DFW-Retail-Panel

By Taylor Williams DALLAS — It’s an exceptionally challenging time to be developing retail space in the metroplex. Pick your poison: Interest rates that have tripled in two years, restricted proceeds from lenders, longer entitlement and permitting times, limited land for new projects. Between all these barriers to growth, the deck is seemingly stacked against brick-and-mortar retail developers these days, despite the fact that in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), occupancy is very high and population growth shows little sign of slowing. Of course, each of those factors is exacerbated with large-scale developments. More land and rentable square footage require the raising of more debt and equity, which translates to heftier interest and dividend payments, respectively. If the site is an assemblage, then predevelopment is more time-consuming, and with the push outward to new suburban paths of growth, those sites may not already be zoned for retail. If rents aren’t trending upward, those factors alone can kill a project in its infancy. Editor’s note: InterFace Conference Group, a division of France Media Inc., produces networking and educational conferences for commercial real estate executives. To sign up for email announcements about specific events, visit www.interfaceconferencegroup.com/subscribe. For all these reasons, some owner-operators see opportunity in building smaller …

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Texas-Instruments-Sherman

By Taylor Williams An attractive, successful woman walks into a bar and posts up. Within minutes, multiple men have approached her, offering to buy her a drink. And while she doesn’t really need the freebie, who can blame her for accepting it? After all, nothing’s more American than having a little extra icing on your cake. To analogize this scenario to commercial real estate, think of Texas as the woman and the burgeoning semiconductor industry as the free drinks. The state’s economy was doing just fine without the mega-boost from manufacturing initiatives stemming from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which has resulted in tens of billions of dollars in capital investment for North and Central Texas. But with a well-deserved reputation for welcoming businesses of all types, Texas wouldn’t be Texas if it didn’t court and embrace these manufacturers in these areas, which for many years were predominantly rural communities. Semiconductors, or computer chips, are essential elements of virtually all electronic and computing devices, including electric vehicles, phones, tablets, TVs, home appliances, solar panels and video game consoles. The CHIPS and Science Act laid the framework for the country to gain market share in terms of manufacturing these components, …

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InterFace-Houston-Retail

By Taylor Williams HOUSTON — High occupancy rates paired with low volumes of new construction have been the prevailing narratives in many major U.S. retail markets over the past couple years, and Houston is no exception. And while that dynamic ensures healthy rent growth within stabilized properties, when paired with high construction costs and higher interest rates, the result can be growth that feels rather sluggish. According to second-quarter data from Colliers, the Houston retail market currently has a vacancy rate of 5.2 percent, a mark that has held steady for the past year. The market added about 1.1 million square feet of new product through the first six months of 2024 to go with roughly 732,000 square feet of positive absorption. The average asking rent stands at $20.38 per square foot, which represents a 3.8 percent increase relative to the second quarter of 2023. Rosy as these figures appear on the surface, they do not tell the full story of the market. Most owners cannot afford to simply sit back and let the deals come to them at rents they dictate. For although demand exceeds supply of quality space, the aforementioned macroeconomic factors are squeezing owners’ profit margins, meaning …

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1601-Elm-St.-Dallas

By Emin Aboolian, senior vice president of underwriting, iBorrow It is not a shock to anyone in the industry to say that the commercial real estate market this year has been challenging and expected to experience further turbulence. The hoped-for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have not yet happened. Price expectations from sellers have remained too optimistic due to the historic low interest rate environment that defined the capital markets for more than a decade. Investors with robust capital buckets continue to sit on the sidelines waiting for price corrections. The wall of impending maturities keeps getting closer — and seemingly larger. The “extend and pretend” approach from large lenders has pushed some maturities out but has not addressed the underlying debt-to-income ratios that these struggling commercial properties face. In summary, no matter what segment you are in — retail, office, industrial or multifamily — 2024 has been a tough year so far and is expected to carry into 2025 until sellers are forced to transact. So why do we think these clouds are going to clear generally, with the Texas market in particular pulling ahead in its recovery? Broadly speaking, the real estate sector is a victim …

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Oaks-on-Marketplace

Newton’s second law of physics holds that what goes up must come down, but unlike objects in freefall, retractions in real estate cycles tend to unfold with varying degrees of pace and severity.   In the case of multifamily investment sales in Texas, it’s been clear for some time that the market is in a much different place than it was in late 2021 and early 2022, the latter period being when rate hikes began. In that golden era of multifamily investment sales, owners routinely achieved record highs of rent growth and brokers closed deals at legendarily high prices and low cap rates.  What isn’t so clear is whether the market has bottomed out yet with regard to those metrics. Attaining clarity on that subject will remain difficult until deal volume rebounds and gives owners and brokers enough data to accurately establish trendlines.  Like everything else in commercial real estate, the question of when deal volume will rebound is tied to movement in interest rates — unless maybe it isn’t. For as the world has seen over the past six months, what the Federal Reserve implies it will do and what it actually does aren’t always in sync. Some brokers …

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Firefly-Park-Frisco

By Taylor Williams If you build it, they will come — assuming “it” is equipped with the all the facilities, necessities and conveniences of 21st-century living.  As residents and consumers, it is remarkably easy to overlook the critical pieces of infrastructure that enable these necessities and conveniences. From the perspective of end users, these facilities and systems are not instrumental to the success of commercial and residential developments because they are taken for granted as minimal requirements for occupancy. Further, in many cases, the infrastructure is not visible to the naked eye.  Yet for developers, particularly those in high-growth regions like North Texas, infrastructure is anything but an afterthought.  “In the eyes of developers, infrastructure is a primary aspect of any project,” says Jack Turnage, development manager at Wildcatter Realty Partners, the developer behind The Greenbelt, a 325-acre mixed-use project in Hunt County. “Without that, the only way to navigate our site is on horseback.” Located in Greenville on the northeastern outskirts of Dallas, The Greenbelt is one of numerous large-scale mixed-use projects sprouting up in the region. Plans call for close to  1,000 single-family and multifamily units; several hundred thousand square feet of commercial space; numerous restaurant pad sites; …

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InterFace-San-Antonio-Retail

By Taylor Williams Industry professionals who hail from and work in San Antonio often describe the city’s economy and real estate scene as steady and healthy in a sort of unspectacular way. Rarely does any commercial sector in San Antonio achieve the high highs and low lows of gateway coastal markets. Further, the market’s quiet consistency has come to stand out as its neighbor up the road, Austin, has exploded as a tech hub in the past decade, bringing with it fervent building booms that still can’t put a dent in the skyrocketing cost of living. Yet this same quality that in years past caused major retailers and restaurants — and investors — to pass on San Antonio is now a primary force that attracts them to the Alamo City, at least according to some local industry experts. Some of these individuals elaborated on the trend at the inaugural InterFace San Antonio retail conference, which took place on April 4 at the Hilton Palacio Del Rio hotel. Bethany Babcock, principal and co-owner of full-service firm Foresite Commercial Real Estate, was the first industry expert who addressed the market’s evolution in the post-COVID era. “We noticed at the last couple trade …

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Weslaco-Palm-Plaza

By Kirk Cypel, chief development officer, CBG Commercial Real Estate Misconceptions about the Rio Grande Valley’s (RGV) retail market abound, particularly among those who are unfamiliar with South Texas.  But those who are entrenched in shopping center ownership and development  in the area are baffled and frustrated by retailers allowing these misconceptions to deter them from actively exploring the RGV.  Questions like whether McAllen is an eight- or 10-hour drive from San Antonio, whether there’s an airport, if it’s safe — these are inquiries that simply make local retail owners and operators shake their heads. The same applies to brokers who inquire about securing endcap, freeway-visible spaces for under $10 per square foot.  The Valley Reality The RGV is less than a four-hour drive from San Antonio and is served by three commercial airports. It resembles a metropolitan area akin to California’s Inland Empire, where several interconnected cities form a cohesive economic unit.  Yet many are surprised to learn of the RGV’s considerable size, spanning 422,107 square miles — 60 percent larger than the Inland Empire and more comparable to San Diego County in size.  The Council for South Texas Economic Progress reports that the population is over 1.4 million, …

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San-Antonio-Multifamily-Conference-Developers

By Taylor Williams The multifamily markets of Austin and San Antonio — two of the fastest-growing cities in the country over the last decade — are on pace to deliver above-average volumes of new apartments in 2024, causing some industry experts to express concerns of potential oversupply. The origins of oversupply are not hard to trace, assuming the average apartment project in those markets takes about four years to complete from the time the site is identified and the entitlement and permitting processes begin to when the property is stabilized. Call it five years for some projects that experienced delays due to COVID-19. But in either case, the current wave of new product was largely financed at historically low interest rates at a time when healthy rent growth was easily underwritten. Demand was there, so developers supplied. And for similar reasons, the distress should be short-lived. With interest rates having risen by 400-plus basis points over the last two years and cuts for 2024 looking increasingly less likely, 2025 should be a year of very few new construction starts. Many owners that are delivering product this year will want to allow time for excess supply to be absorbed and see …

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