Texas Market Reports

While rumors of a looming recession dot the mainstream media landscape and pervade conversations at bars and water coolers, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Austin are humming along with the kind of healthy job growth that reduces that talk to little more than a whisper.  Growth in office-using sectors like tech, finance, engineering and business services in both the state’s capital and largest metropolis continues to fuel demand for space, push rents to new levels and drive price  appreciation on office assets. According to CoStar Group, the Dallas area has added about 90,000 new jobs over the last 12 months, and currently boasts a 3.4 percent unemployment rate, which is lower than both the state and national averages. And based on the most current data from the Austin Chamber of Commerce, payrolls in the state capital grew by about 23,000 between June 2018 and June 2019, while unemployment currently sits below 3 percent. While strong population growth is enough to jumpstart development and absorption in the multifamily, industrial and retail sectors, it’s pure job growth that drives the office space. So it’s not a bad time to be an owner of core properties in desirable submarkets in both cities. But these …

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With the major markets of Texas adding thousands of new apartments every year, multifamily management firms are increasingly relying on technology to accelerate leasing activity, grow renewal rates and handle requests from tenants — all in the name of keeping their properties competitive and their investor clients happy. As beneficiaries of strong job and population growth throughout this cycle, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), Houston and Austin have all watched their multifamily supply levels increase. According to CoStar Group, DFW, a national leader in apartment development, has added more than 20,000 units per year in each of the last three years. Houston has also seen its supply of multifamily product grow over the past several years as natural population growth has worked to offset hiring slumps brought on by depressed energy prices. Austin and San Antonio are also facing demand for more housing via the strong population growth occurring throughout the region.    Multifamily supply growth means that renters have more options on where to live and can afford to be more selective, not only with regard to rental rates, but also in terms of services. To the latter point, management professionals have taken on an added element of customer service that …

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Between 2014 and 2016, the Houston multifamily market struggled with an issue of oversupply as a result of accelerated apartment construction. When Hurricane Harvey hit in 2017, Houston residents displaced by the storm produced a surge in apartment demand that helped fill thousands of empty units over the ensuing 12 months. Fast forward to 2019, and two key factors are keeping a strong apartment pipeline flowing and forcing developers to play catch-up: new residents and more jobs. Over the past two years, demand has outpaced deliveries, a welcome sign for investors following the 2014-2016 era. More than 20,000 units came on line in 2016 alone and caused absorption to lag. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, steady increases in population have Houston competing with Chicago for the title of third-most populous city in the country. This demographic trend, coupled with the city’s strong labor market, has created a setting wherein capital keeps trying to find its way into the Bayou City. Underpinning the need for more housing product was the 94,000-plus new residents added during the last year, which ranked Houston’s net migration in the top three of U.S. metros. Given the rise in demand stemming from jobs and in-migration, …

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Elevated consumer spending tied to a strong job market in the greater Houston area is driving retail investment and tenant demand in suburban and urban submarkets alike. As a result, it’s one of the nation’s top MSAs for retail development, with more than 3 million-plus square feet under construction market-wide. From an investment perspective, single-tenant and ground-leased assets remain favorable with investors. E-commerce-resistant tenants like fitness, restaurants, automotive service centers, car washes/detailing and dialysis facilities command the most attention with cap rates between the mid-5 to mid-6 percent range. Cap rates tend to be 25 to 50 basis points lower for ground leases because there is no landlord responsibility. Credit, guarantee, location, lease term and landlord responsibility are the biggest factors affecting value. Following Grand Parkway In greater Houston, the majority of retail development recently has been in high-growth submarkets along the 180-mile Grand Parkway/TX 99, which loops through seven counties. National brands like Target, Ross Dress for Less, T.J. Maxx, Burlington, Ulta Beauty and Five Below are continually scouting sites in high-density suburban markets along the Grand Parkway. The exponential growth in the entertainment, fitness, dining and medical/healthcare sectors is an equally strong catalyst for retail and mixed-use development …

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As we enter the fourth quarter, Houston’s office market remains sluggish due primarily to uncertainty in the energy industry. With the price of West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuating between $45 and $60 per barrel, the market has seen minimal oil company expansions.  With the pricing outlook remaining on a bleak to flat trajectory, little growth in office occupancy is expected in the next 18 to 24 months. The cycle favors tenants, now and for the foreseeable future. Should energy pricing return to higher levels, there will undoubtedly be higher occupancy through positive absorption, making the next six months an ideal time to lock in rental rates and construction/build-out costs for the next five to seven years. Through the third quarter of 2019, Houston has seen 217,000 square feet of overall net absorption, including sublease space returning to the direct market. The bright  spots are new Class A downtown properties like Bank of America Tower, 609 Main and Texas Tower, whose current and future tenants have demonstrated their willingness to pay the higher base rates and operating expenses associated with new development. Companies are using office space more efficiently due to technological advances and transformations in mobility and are demanding more …

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All the recent talk in the Houston industrial market has focused on the amount of distribution space that is under construction or proposed for development. As a result, many industrial real estate professionals are worried about certain submarkets becoming overbuilt. This is a reasonable thought, given that Houston has more distribution space under construction than ever before — roughly 18 million square feet is under construction citywide, compared to the previous high in 2015 of 15 million square feet. However, there is also an exceptionally high level of demand in the market that could easily allow more than half of that space to be quickly absorbed once delivered. What is most promising about Houston’s industrial market — and what has also partially defined the evolution of this space — is the sheer volume of larger requirements. There are currently more than a dozen deals  across the city involving users that are seeking anywhere from 400,000 to 1.5 million square feet. This certainly bodes well for Houston’s industrial distribution market, which continues to attract large-scale developers and tenants due to the growing local and regional population. Access to the Port of Houston — which is great for retailers looking for another …

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Office buildings that have been newly constructed or recently rehabilitated are fielding the greatest demand from large companies, which are banking on the idea that lifestyle-enriching amenities and a vibrant surrounding neighborhood create advantages in attracting and retaining talent. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, during the 12-month period ending in July, the four major office markets of Texas added more than 200,000 new jobs combined. The state’s unemployment rate was 3.4 percent at the time of this writing, 30 basis points below the national average. The job market clearly favors applicants, and the competition between major office-using companies to secure the best applicants is fierce. Of course, some job seekers still base their employment decisions based on traditional factors like salary and commute time. But all other factors being held equal, employees with multiple job offers are placing greater emphasis on what kind of working environment they can get with one employer versus another. “It’s all about what amenities a building can offer to its tenants,” says Jackie Marshall, first vice president in CBRE’s Dallas office. “Many tenants are willing to pay more to be in buildings that help them recruit and retain talent, and amenities that make …

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The unprecedented job and population growth that Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) has experienced during this cycle has brought a plethora of new buyers to the Class B multifamily space, and the simple economics of high demand and low supply are re-shaping the landscape of the investment market. According to CoStar Group, the average price per unit in the Class B space has increased by 4.3 percent year-to-date, and deal volume on sales of Class B assets is down from 2017. These trends attest to the strong impact price escalation has had on the market. A more crowded buyer pool is also breeding competition and pushing prices upward. The metroplex’s growth cycle dates back to the beginning of the expansion. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that between 2010 and 2018, the metroplex added about 1.1 million people, or 122,000 per year. Earlier this year, Cushman & Wakefield released a report stating that DFW added approximately 754,000 jobs between 2009 and 2018, or 75,000 per year. This convergence has significantly boosted apartment demand in the metroplex, ushering in waves of competition for older multifamily assets, many of which are positioned for value-add investment and subsequent rent bumps. Price escalation caused by …

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In both Austin and San Antonio, consistent job creation and in-migration contributed to solid household formation and rental demand over the 12-month period ending in June. Many of these new households comprise younger professionals that favor the renter lifestyle. Following stretches of rampant construction, solid apartment demand from this demographic was met with fewer project deliveries in both markets over the past year. The decline in supply additions, coupled with strong absorption, reduced vacancy to near cycle-low levels in both metros during the second quarter. Robust leasing activity across all classes of apartments allowed the average effective rent to rise by more than 5 percent in each locale. These market conditions, paired with projected economic expansion and above-average first-year returns, boosted out-of-state buyer interest in Austin and San Antonio over the past four quarters, equating to notable spikes in transaction velocity. Austin: Class A Demand Austin’s reputation as a tech hub with a well-educated workforce has influenced many professional and business services-related companies to expand in the area, increasing the number of higher-earning residents in the metro. This has strengthened demand for luxury apartments, lowering Class A vacancy by 90 basis points over the 12-month period ending in June amid …

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The phenomenal growth taking place in Austin and San Antonio has shown little sign of slowing over the past several years. These two mid-size Texas cities are developing quickly and continue to undergo rapid change. Both are ranked in the top 10 fastest-growing metro areas in the country and both have unemployment levels at near-record lows. Tenant Profiles The industries driving the economy in these two central Texas cities are quite different. Each has strong tourism sectors, but that is where the similarities end. In Austin, the tech industry, government, life sciences and creative arts are keeping the market extremely active. Defense, healthcare, oil and gas and the burgeoning markets of cybersecurity and biotech are driving absorption in San Antonio. New tenants are coming to San Antonio to take advantage of lower costs and an abundant workforce — a positive trend that reflects strong fundamentals and viability. As for Austin, Fortune 500 companies continue to pour into the city not only to capitalize on the lower cost of doing business in Texas, but also to recruit and lure a highly educated workforce. Austin’s third-consecutive gold medal ranking as the “Best Place to Live” by U.S. News & World Report makes …

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