Texas Market Reports

The joint effects of heavy supply additions, rising construction costs and the possibility of an looming recession have multifamily lenders in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) exercising caution and restraint on new construction financing, even as jobs and people continue to flow into the metroplex and fuel demand for housing. The sector’s fundamentals are very encouraging. According to data from CoStar Group, the metroplex has added approximately 23,000 new units over the past 12 months. At just over 25,000 units, absorption during that period has more than adequate. Vacancy currently sits at 7.5 percent. In addition to the market adding 80,000-plus jobs and 100,000-plus people for several consecutive years, strong demand for Class B properties with value-add potential has kept rent growth moving forward. Concessions have begun to sprout up in a handful of submarkets that have seen particularly concentrated levels of new supply, but the metroplex still posted overall rent growth of 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, according to CoStar. In addition, lenders are keenly aware of the construction industry’s ongoing challenge to add skilled labor. Labor stress is creating longer construction timelines and stabilization periods. “Two years ago, we had subcontractors walking off our job sites because they …

It’s an exciting time to be living in Lubbock, Texas. The amazing smells of Evie Mae’s Beef Ribs fill the air. McPherson, llano Estacado and English Wineries are producing gold medal wines, on point with anywhere in the country. The Texas Tech men’s basketball team was 30 seconds away from a national championship; the men’s track team won the NCAA Championship; and the Red Raiders’ Meat Judging Team continued its dominant reign. Winning has infected the community culture, translating into a strong local economy. Things are great for the local consumer, but how is that playing out for multifamily investors? Here, the message is mixed. We will begin by discussing the Lubbock economy as a whole, then the key numbers for the Lubbock multifamily market, followed by a general discussion. Economic Outlook The Lubbock economy continues to perform at record levels. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the city’s unemployment rate in June was 3.2 percent. As amazing as this number is, it actually represents an increase from the unemployment experienced in the two previous months. Over the last 12 months, the Lubbock economy added an estimated 2,000 new jobs. Per the Lubbock National Bank Economic Report, some of the …

In 2019, Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) once again represents the nation’s top metro for job creation and net migration. These market conditions are occurring at an opportune time as more than 26,000 multifamily units have been completed throughout the market this year, marking a record wave of annual deliveries. This influx of new apartments will increase the metro’s rental inventory by 3.3 percent, yet robust demand for new supply allows net absorption to match delivery volume, lowering overall vacancy by 20 basis points. Prolonged Absorption Over the past three years ending in June, DFW’s apartment stock expanded by 10 percent, or 74,000 units, yet vacancy adjusted moderately during this period. Unit availability hovered in the high-4 to high-5 percent range,  with demand supported by the creation of 400,000 jobs, robust in-migration and the widening gap between a monthly mortgage payment and average rent. The extended period of strong leasing velocity was highlighted by the second quarter of 2019, when a record 12,000 apartments were absorbed. Performance during this three-month stretch lowered vacancy by 90 basis points on a quarter-over-quarter basis. With employment growth slated to further improve during the second half of this year — the result of corporate relocations and …