Texas Market Reports

Quality of Labor, Land Availability Buoy Fort Worth Industrial Market

by Taylor Williams March 8, 2019

The DFW industrial market has enjoyed unprecedented growth over this seven-year development cycle. The market has added approximately 118 million square feet of industrial inventory over that period and absorbed 143 million square feet. Population growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex, the state of Texas and the south-central U.S. region, as well as growth in e-commerce, are the primary tailwinds propelling this extraordinary growth. Ever since Hillwood broke ground on AllianceTexas in the late 1980s, putting north Fort Worth on the radar of industrial users, the expansion in the Fort Worth industrial market has been an ever-increasing part of the overall DFW industrial market’s growth. However, the Fort Worth industrial market’s growth is really accelerating now based on the lack of available developable industrial sites in Dallas and the Mid-Cities. Further, when users and developers compare Fort Worth and southeast Dallas, the two areas with available industrial spaces and developable industrial land, Fort Worth’s advantages with regard to infrastructure, amenities, and most importantly, labor, stand out. As the area reaches peak employment, and with labor cost being the highest percentage of a user’s overall operational cost, the workforce factor has become the most important site selection criterion for users …

March 8, 2019

Market Reports Multifamily Texas Texas Market Reports

Why Arlington Should Be on Every Multifamily Developers’ Radar

by Taylor Williams March 1, 2019

Our borrowers’ favorite question is, “Where should we build next?” As a lender specializing in financing Texas apartment communities, it’s hard to get the answer wrong. Our state is full of cities adding jobs and people at faster rates than the nation as a whole. As we drill down to help our clients differentiate between “good markets” and “good opportunities,” we focus on several factors including the current rental market, supply and demand and location. When considering these factors, the city of Arlington stands out as an overlooked “good opportunity.” It’s surprising how little attention this city of 400,000 in the middle of the metroplex has received from multifamily developers in recent years. Even as home to an ever-expanding General Motors assembly plant, one of the state’s largest universities, an entertainment district featuring two $1 billion stadiums, an extensive highway system, easy access to Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport and a pro-growth local government, we haven’t worked with a developer yet that had Arlington on its list before we talked. Yet the selling points are obvious. Current Rental Market Overall, market-rate properties in Arlington show steady occupancy at 93 percent with average rents of $1.20 per square foot and annual …

March 1, 2019

Industrial Market Reports Texas Texas Market Reports

E-Commerce, Distribution Users Spar for Labor

by Taylor Williams February 22, 2019

Industrial users in Texas, particularly e-commerce firms operating out of large-format distribution centers, are finding it harder and harder to staff their facilities with experienced, talented workers. Development of both speculative and build-to-suit warehouses and distribution centers has been on fire in major Texas markets over the last several years, driven by an abundance of land, exceptional infrastructure and climbing populations. According to CoStar Group, Dallas-Fort Worth’s (DFW) industrial supply grew by 3.5 percent, or roughly 30 million square feet, in 2017. That figure represents the highest single-year inventory growth in more than a decade. Approximately 21 million square feet of new space hit the market in 2018, and for 2019, CoStar forecasts that nearly 24 million square feet of product will be delivered. Houston’s supply growth has been tamer, averaging about 12.2 million square feet annually between 2015 and 2018. But the market is projected to add another 13.2 million square feet this year, per CoStar. With a couple exceptions, more than 90 percent of the new product delivered in DFW and Houston in each year between 2015 and 2018 was distribution space. The distribution building booms in Texas’ two biggest markets have occurred in the face of escalating …

February 22, 2019

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

New Year, New Entertainment

by Taylor Williams February 15, 2019

Entertainment concepts have long since adopted an “everything under one roof” approach that packages some combination of food, drink, movies, bowling, arcades and other games into a single destination. But competition in the space is growing, and owner-operators are facing mounting pressure to offer an ideal mix of activities that keeps people onsite longer and boosts return visits. What that combination is varies from market to market and even site to site. But without question, the breadth of games and activities offered at entertainment centers in Texas is expanding and evolving. What’s Hot, What’s Not Virtual reality (VR) shooting games and driving simulators, axe-throwing arenas and elevated food and beverage (F&B) components are among the key features that are driving traffic to entertainment centers and the retail properties that house them. Movie theaters and bowling alleys are evolving as well. According to Jeff Benson, CEO of Dallas-based Cinergy Entertainment Group, it’s very unlikely that new theaters in large and mid-sized markets will ever be built without certain features. “The movie business has changed a lot in 20 years, and I doubt you’ll ever see another theater built without a bar, recliner seats and dine-in options,” says Benson, who founded dine-in …

February 15, 2019

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

Retail Landlords Aim to Connect on First Swing

by Taylor Williams February 8, 2019

Developers of new retail product in the e-commerce era face an array of roadblocks, from rising land and construction costs to heightened scrutiny from lenders on cash flows. Besides a larger economic downturn, in today’s Darwinian retail environment, nothing makes a new project fizzle or a stabilized center depreciate faster than lost income and occupancy brought on by an un-engaging, uninspiring tenant mix. Consequently, developers are devoting more of their budgets than they have in years past to researching, meeting and analyzing users to ensure they nail their tenant rosters on their first try. This is particularly true for developers whose business models center on long-term holds of their properties. “If we put a problem tenant in a center on day one, we inherit that problem for the term of the lease,” says Anderson Smith, co-founder of Capital Retail Properties, a Houston-based retail firm that holds its developments for the long term. “So it’s very important that we do it right the first time.” Smith says that his firm’s first move when researching a potential tenant is to check out that company’s Instagram account, which provides insight on the retailer’s approach to store build-outs and quality of product or service. …

February 8, 2019

Market Reports Multifamily Texas Texas Market Reports

Survey: Multifamily Metrics Will Cool in 2019

by Taylor Williams February 1, 2019

Multifamily properties have produced strong returns for commercial developers and investors over the past few years. But the apartment supply wave appears to have crested, suggesting 2019 will bring a slower pace of rent growth. Consequently, pricing levels should come down, cap rates should creep upward and returns on investment should cool. According to a report from commercial real estate research firm Yardi Matrix, America’s multifamily market experienced 3.1 percent annual rent growth for the 12-month period ending November 2018, the latest data available at the time of this writing. The report also featured 2019 rent growth projections for America’s 30 largest multifamily markets, 19 of which are expected to see their paces of rent growth either decline or remain the same this year. Brokers who participated in Texas Real Estate Business’ annual forecast survey indicated that investment activity for multifamily assets in Texas should be more modest in 2019. This group ranked multifamily second among property types likely to experience a high velocity of sales in 2019, suggesting the new year could see more properties brought to market in anticipation of future elevation of cap rates. Numerical Context Most recently, the story on multifamily in Texas has been demand, …

February 1, 2019

Industrial Market Reports Oklahoma Texas Texas Market Reports

OKC Industrial Market Should Benefit From Rising Labor Costs Across Central U.S.

by Taylor Williams January 25, 2019

From a manufacturing perspective, Oklahoma City has historically been considered a “tertiary market” when stacked against South Central and Midwest power players such as Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin and Denver. As large manufacturing users consider multiple markets in the Central United States, Oklahoma City is often included in the initial list but typically fails to make the short list for various reasons. However, as labor costs rise, Oklahoma City may find itself being pushed to the front of the line. Past Misses Oklahoma City’s industrial market totals approximately 108 million square feet, making it a smaller market than DFW, Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin or Denver. Primarily driven by the oil & gas, aerospace and consumer goods industries, this market’s fundamentals tend to move in lockstep with oil & gas commodity prices. The city has tried to diversify the economy over the past decade and bring in non-oil & gas users. But there is still room for improvement. The metro has seen its share of growth; however, overall industrial construction still pales in comparison to larger markets. Growing Appeal The industrial booms seen in DFW, Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin and Denver over …

January 25, 2019

Market Reports Multifamily Oklahoma Texas Texas Market Reports

Investor Demand Rises for Apartment Assets in Oklahoma City

by Taylor Williams January 18, 2019

As expected and much anticipated, the global rise in oil prices has given the petroleum industry a significant boost and spurred Oklahoma City’s economic recovery. The resurgence, demonstrated in part by a three-year-high in hiring this year, is drawing out-of-state multifamily investors and bringing greater interest from companies looking to relocate or expand. In mid-October, FedEx more than doubled its warehouse space with the opening of a new 270,000-square-foot distribution facility in north Oklahoma City. The expansion came in response to the increase in outbound e-commerce volume, another indication that the local economy has turned a corner. Most of the new jobs created in Oklahoma City through September 2018 were professional and business positions. The sector grew by 4.4 percent year-over-year, easily the widest margin of any employment sector. Overall, the total number of jobs filled during that same period was 13,500, an increase of 2.1 percent. For the complete year, employers anticipate adding about 14,000 new positions. The rebound in hiring has led to the unemployment rate dropping to 3.2 percent, nearly its lowest level in a decade. Supply-Demand Balance The city’s economic recovery is particularly well-timed for multifamily investors, as it coincides with a reduction in the metro’s …

January 18, 2019

Market Reports Oklahoma Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

Oklahoma City Is Natural Landing Spot for Successful DFW Retailers

by Taylor Williams January 11, 2019

Retail real estate in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is nearing its cyclical peak, and users that want to continue expanding in the metroplex are being hamstrung by a lack of quality space and surging rents. According to CoStar Group, DFW’s retail vacancy rate currently stands at 4.4 percent, a record low that the research firm expects to hold steady or even improve in the coming years. Rents have grown by more than 3 percent annually over the last five years, and are now 15 percent higher than their pre-recession peaks. Put simply, DFW is a landlord’s market. As such, retailers that have had success in the metroplex over the last decade and want to keep opening new stores should be considering other markets. One of the ideal landing spots for these users lies a mere 200 miles up Interstate 35 in Oklahoma City. According to CoStar, Oklahoma City’s retail vacancy has grown by approximately 100 basis points over the last two years, currently clocking in at 6.1 percent. There is very little new product under construction — less than half a million square feet — but asking rents in Oklahoma City average $14.40 per square foot, compared to $18.89 per square …

January 11, 2019

Industrial Market Reports Texas Texas Market Reports

Houston’s Industrial Vacancy, Supply of Developable Sites Dwindle

by Taylor Williams December 28, 2018

Industrial space throughout the Houston continues to be absorbed at an astonishing clip, pushing vacancy levels to some of their lowest points this cycle. According to Stream’s data, the overall industrial vacancy rate in Houston closed the third quarter at 4.9 percent. Vacancy rates in the six major Houston submarkets are all below 7 percent for the first time since Stream entered the Houston market in 2006. The low vacancy rate across the market has triggered waves of new development. Stream estimates that across Houston, there is approximately 14 million square feet of institutional-quality space under construction, with another 25 million square feet already having delivered since 2014. To put that in perspective, Stream tracked the overall market at 260 million square feet in 2014 compared to 285 million square feet today – a 9% market growth over that four-year period. If you layer in the product under construction today, that takes that growth to over 13 percent. Despite a hefty volume of development hitting the Houston market, leasing velocity continues to outpace new deliveries, keeping market fundamentals in check. This strength is attributable to many macro-economic factors but strong population growth, e-commerce, Hurricane Harvey recovery and the boom in …

December 28, 2018

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