Texas Market Reports

XTO-Energy-Fort-Worth

Over the last 15 years, the office market of Fort Worth, as well as that of the metroplex as a whole, has experienced steady growth in both development and absorption of new product. DFW’s office vacancy rate currently sits at 15 percent, according to CoStar Group, indicating the ceiling for new growth has not yet been hit. The traditional drivers of job and population growth have fueled new construction and strong leasing velocity for office properties in Dallas. But in Fort Worth, particularly the downtown area, the growth is more visibly tied to the live-work-play trend embodied by millennials and other young members of the workforce. The health of Fort Worth’s multifamily, restaurant and hotel markets are all contributing to the growth of the office sector. Office developers consider a number of factors when constructing new space. But much like any project, location is key. As Fort Worth’s need for more housing, dining and hotels has grown, the walkability factor in the office sector has only increased in importance. As such, it’s not only the employees that are drawn to properties that are located within walking distance to residential buildings and entertainment destinations. Developers are also coveting these sites. Entertainment …

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The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex will lead the nation in absolute job creation for a third consecutive year in 2018. Strong employment gains have produced healthy household formation trends as new residents migrate to the market and young adults continue to move out on their own. As a result, many new residents are filtering into apartments as homeownership in the metro falls out of reach. Pricing Concerns Since the end of 2012, median home prices in DFW have increased nearly 60 percent to more than a quarter of a million dollars, with median prices in some core neighborhoods reaching well above half a million dollars. At the same time, the projected minimum qualifying income rose marginally in comparison. The gap in growth between these two metrics makes single-family homeownership unattainable for a number of residents. And although the homeownership rate has ticked up over the past couple of years, it remained below the national average in the first quarter of 2018. These trends bode well for the apartment sector, ensuring overall absorption will be healthy at a time when developers are adding a record number of units to inventory. Households, whether renting or owning, are searching for affordable living options …

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2901-Suffolk-Avenue-Fort-Worth

Any commuter who takes Interstate 35 on a regular basis can tell that the Fort Worth industrial market is continuously growing. But the question is, how much longer will the growth last? Numerous signs point to the metro’s industrial market having considerably more runway for new development, as well as key factors in place to maintain strong positive absorption of existing industrial space. These factors include continuous and regular population growth, a low cost of living, strong labor force and an exceptional availability of developable land. Historically, Fort Worth’s industrial growth has always lagged that of Dallas. But times are changing. Just four years ago, there were very few national developers taking space and setting up operations in Fort Worth, but now major firms can’t seem to get here fast enough. To be sure, the state’s soft regulatory environment and tax-friendly structure have always helped lure businesses to Fort Worth as much as they have to Dallas, which usually gets the big-name relocations. But the speed at which Fort Worth is catching up to its big brother is real, and the industrial market may embody it better than any other sector. One construction-based statistic captures this trend above others: There …

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Shops-at-Clearfork-Fort-Worth

For the last several years, Fort Worth’s retail market has posted a vacancy rate of 5 to 6 percent, suggesting that absorption is strong yet new construction is still permissible. However, there is a difference between Fort Worth’s vacancy rate and that of comparably sized markets wherein 95 percent of the retail space is occupied. In Fort Worth, occupancy is evenly distributed from submarket to submarket. Because of this balance, the metro’s most thriving retail neighborhood — the university corridor — and the driving forces behind its growth often go overlooked. Perhaps because it has only one campus that is located within a large city and even larger metropolex, Texas Christian University (TCU) doesn’t always get the credit it deserves for driving retail growth in Fort Worth. Rarely in recent history, however, has the connection between the two been more visible. According to the school’s website, its total enrollment was approximately 10,400 students during the academic year ending in May 2017. Three years earlier, that figure stood at roughly 9,700. That difference of 700 or so students may not seem like much at first. But it bears reminding that these are young adults attending a private university. This means that …

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Pharr-Town-Center-Pharr-Texas

As the number of jobs and people in the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) grows, the region’s retail market holds steady. Historically, vacancy in this market tends to hover between 5 and 7 percent. So the current retail vacancy rate in the McAllen-Edinburg-Mission MSA, which according to CoStar Group is 4.5 percent, represents a couple different trends. First, the vacancy figure illustrates positive absorption of newly constructed retail space. In 2016 and 2017, the market added about 770,000 and 675,000 square feet, respectively, its highest supply additions in nearly a decade. Second, the diminished vacancy rate suggests that new retailers are entering the McAllen MSA, which can be  a gauge for the rest of the RGV. In actuality, much of the new space is being leased to retailers that already have a presence in the valley. One might think the RGV is too small a market to support healthy same-store operations, but this is not the case. Best Buy, Walmart and Ulta Beauty can attest to this. A Dominant Sector There is a common thread that unites these newcomers, and it involves single-family development. According to the latest HUD data available, single-family home sales increased 3 percent year-over-year in 2017. More …

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CARDONE-Industries-Harlingen-Texas

The industrial market of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) is off to a blistering start in 2018, thanks to a combination of increased commercial activity around the U.S.-Mexico border and renewed political and military interest in the region. We use the tri-city area of McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, now the fifth-largest MSA in Texas, as a yardstick for our regional analysis. According to CBRE, industrial vacancy in this market registered an all-time low of 3 percent during the first quarter. In addition, the market posted positive net absorption of approximately 79,000 square feet during the first quarter, a year-over-year increase of 24,000 square feet. Average asking rents for industrial space are also up  40 cents from the first quarter of 2017. Demand for industrial space in the RGV has always been a factor of the region’s proximity to Mexico. The Mexican border city of Reynosa absorbed more than 2 million square feet of industrial space in 2017. More than 1 million square feet of industrial product is under construction in Reynosa, and the pipeline includes everything from heavy manufacturing plants to rail-served distribution centers. This aspect of the RGV’s location has always played a pivotal role in generating demand for warehousing — for …

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Chase-Tower-McAllen-Texas

The economy of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) has always been closely linked to foreign trade. The region’s numerous port markets and its proximity to Mexico — in particular, the robust industrial market of the Mexican border city of Reynosa — have always ensured that international commerce plays a key role in the economic success of the RGV. Manufacturing and distribution have always been major drivers of growth in the RGV. We often analyze the performances of these sectors when gauging the health of the region’s office market, as the performance of the office market tends to trail the performance of the industrial sector, usually by a period of 12 to 18 months. The office market of the RGV consists mostly of small, Class B properties developed in the 1980s and 1990s. There are no true skyscrapers or trophy assets in this region, as office users in the RGV simply don’t demand the level of amenities and quality of space as their counterparts in major markets. Small and steady as the office market may be, it is not immune to the influence of larger political movements. Everyone with a vested interest in RGV commercial real estate is keeping a close …

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Mirabella-Apartments-McAllen-Texas

Commercial real estate sectors in secondary and tertiary markets often suffer from a lack of current, comprehensive data and metrics. Until a few years ago, the multifamily market of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) was no exception. Much of the region’s multifamily product consists of “clusters” of fourplexes. In many cases, different investors own different units within these properties, which generally do not have management and leasing offices with hard data. Consequently, for years multifamily developers and brokers in Hidalgo and Cameron counties operated without reliable information on their market, generally ceding to the ideas that it was overbuilt. Turns out they were incorrect. Year-over-year rent growth in this market tends to be flat. Fluctuations are short-lived and back-and-forth in nature. But beginning in 2015 and carrying over into 2016, multifamily players in the RGV began to realize that their market was not overbuilt and that in fact, demand for better product was rising. Volatile Vacancy To better grasp the ebbs and flows of this market, we revert to 2008 and pre-recession data. To simplify our analysis, we use the McAllen-Edinburg-Mission MSA as a proxy for the region. In 2008, multifamily vacancy stood at approximately 6 percent. By 2011, when …

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HALL-Group-Dallas

From Dallas-Fort Worth’s (DFW) explosive rate of corporate relocations and expansions to Houston’s reliance on oil prices to Austin’s strong supply of tech talent, there’s very little common ground among the office sectors of Texas’ biggest cities. And whereas the pace of sales, development and absorption for certain property types — industrial, multifamily, self-storage — are strong across DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio, it’s the office sectors of these metros that truly capture their differences. The office markets of the Lone Star State’s four major metros each have a different story to tell — a narrative that speaks to their core demand drivers, as well as their projected performances for the rest of the year. In this piece, we take a closer look at the crucial factors underlying each of the Big Four’s office markets. DFW: Slowing But Stable The DFW office market isn’t as hot as its multifamily or industrial sectors, which are seeing record volumes of new construction and absorption, respectively. But the metro’s ability to create 100,000-plus jobs per year ensures that its strong office fundamentals can be maintained. The metro posted year-over-year rent growth of 2.2 percent, according to CoStar Group, right on par with …

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Weststar-Tower-El-Paso

For decades, El Paso was a big, sleepy town nestled on the banks of the Rio Grande that relied on a slow-paced, but consistent economy. In those days, housing was always affordable. Pricing levels for single- and multifamily properties were below national averages, but so too were wages. The city’s office market, which has traditionally served as a leading indicator for multifamily growth, hummed along without ever experiencing strong asset appreciation or interest from outside investors. Taken at face value, this activity would suggest that there was a firm ceiling for new development and rent growth for both of these markets. In recent years, however, El Paso natives have seen their city experience enormous growth fueled by exceptionally low crime rates and expanding population at Fort Bliss Army base. Development of both single- and multifamily product really took off between 2011 and 2014, causing rent growth to subside and vacancies to rise from 5 percent a few years ago to roughly 9 percent today. The market returned to a more sustainable pace of new development in subsequent years. Looking ahead, the metro’s job growth should remain a factor of its population of military personnel and federal employees. As El Paso …

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