Texas Market Reports

There’s no question that the San Antonio multifamily market has had the reputation of being the steady tortoise in a race against the more nimble Texas hares of Houston, Dallas and Austin.  We all know how the fable ends — the hare, confident of an easy win, takes a nap while the tortoise secures victory. Could 2018 be the year that our “slow and steady” hero finds its place at the top of the Texas market performance? As it stands, the Alamo City is enjoying an apartment occupancy rate of 92.1 percent, which is flat on a year-over-year basis. But given the amount of new supply that entered the market in 2017 — a cycle-high 7,230 units — that’s a remarkable number. We ended 2017 with an average rent of $1.14 per square foot, which is flat compared to third-quarter figures, but that number still represents 3.64 percent growth from the $1.10 average from the fourth quarter of 2016. So what does it mean for the market’s immediate future? The San Antonio construction pipeline continues to be a focal point and as things progressed, there have been some surprises. While 2017 marked the cyclical peak for deliveries, and there has …

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San Antonio is a testament to the old proverb that slow and steady wins the race. Instead of becoming overheated in response to the benefits of strong employment and population growth, the metro’s retail market continues to take a measured approach to growth. That approach has enabled an exceptional occupancy rate for its brick-and-mortar retail inventory. Development vs. Occupancy Measured, demand-based construction is one of the key reasons that San Antonio’s current retail market enjoys a near-record balance of supply and demand. Currently, the market’s overall occupancy is a healthy 94 percent. We expect this rate to be maintained as retail demand continues during a time of very limited construction of new retail product. The market’s limited retail construction of only 360,000 square feet this past year was dominated by H-E-B, which opened two new stores in 2017. The locations came on line either freestanding or with limited peripheral small-shop space, further tightening the market for available space. To illustrate exactly how low new construction is, we compared the current market to a decade ago, when the economy was in a similar cycle. The market’s occupancy at year-end 2007 was 91.2 percent, healthy but notably below the current 94 percent …

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Would you believe that San Antonio is the second most sought-after city for millennials? According to local media pundits and reports from Forbes, San Antonio is attracting the greatest number of millennials of any city in Texas, even beating out Austin, the original yuppie capital of the state. San Antonio, which had taken a back seat to Austin in terms of creating tech jobs and drawing millennial workers, has surged ahead in recent years. The metro has begun to appeal to a different breed of people born between 1980 and 1999. We refer to  members of this group as the “logical millennials.” While entrepreneurial in spirit, the San Antonio millennial differs from the standard millennial through his or her understanding of the need for affordable housing and a lower cost of living. The influx of this sub-type of millennials has created growth in urban areas, most notably the Pearl District, which is situated adjacent to the downtown area. The popularity of this mixed-use shopping and community destination has spurred the development of a number of new urban lifestyle projects. Frost Tower, Rising Rents Another indicator of San Antonio’s success at attracting a younger demographic is embodied in the most significant …

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Among professionals in the major sectors of commercial real estate, retailers are often the first to spot, understand and respond to emerging trends in human behavior. Those trends have shifted dramatically the past few years, and retail real estate in Austin has certainly felt the ripple effects, from downtown to the suburbs and across the emerging “nodes” in between. For some time now, American consumers in general have been clearly indicating their preference for more “experiential” ways to shop or receive services. That said, smart developers know that the experience begins well before shoppers enter a retailer’s doors. And understanding how to best cater to emerging demands helps breed success, not only for tenants, but also for the project as a whole. The following three trends represent key ways in which consumer demand is driving change in Austin’s retail landscape and illustrate how the market is responding. Seamless Integration Consumers want retail options located within close proximity to where they work and live — all the better if the property housing these needs can be one and the same. Just as Austin has grown regionally, so has demand for retail space, giving rise to mixed-use projects throughout the city. In …

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The story of industrial real estate today, at least in terms of national media coverage, centers around compressing cap rates and the steady stream of capital flowing into the sector. But in Austin — the kid brother of two major industrial markets, Dallas and Houston — the story over the past 12 months has been the large increase in the volume of industrial construction. Austin delivered 3.1 million square feet of industrial product in 2017, a 55 percent increase over the total space delivered during the previous year. Throughout the past year, the metro also trailed the national average in industrial vacancy, net absorption and percent change in rental rates from 2016 to 2017. Many developers that broke ground during one of the healthiest periods in Austin’s industrial history are now delivering space at a time when the Austin economy is starting to cool. Employers have found themselves in a more competitive environment, with annual job growth slowing to sub-3 percent levels and the unemployment rate reaching numbers not seen since the dot-com boom. Market Evolution Austin’s recent industrial performance should not be seen as cause for alarm, but rather as an opportunity to understand the changing mindset of the …

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The story of the office market in Austin’s central business district (CBD) begins in 2008. With the national economic downturn just beginning, a new, 44-story high-rise residential building had  just been completed and the millennial generation was slowly starting to enter the workforce. At that time, the total inventory of office product in Austin’s CBD was approximately 8.44 million square feet. These properties posted a vacancy rate of about 12.9 percent. Several major factors would soon come to play a role in transforming the submarket from professional and typical into tech-savvy and hip. First, Facebook arrived in Austin in 2010, bringing with it an ethos of, “it’s not a job, it’s an adventure.” The social media giant quickly took 20,000 square feet at 300 W. 6th St., its largest office outside its Silicon Valley headquarters. Additional moves were precipitated in part by an increase in personal income taxes in California, which put the highest earners in the state at a combined state and federal income tax rate of 51.9 percent, among the highest in the nation. In addition, the age demographics of the 2010 U.S. population indicated that there were 13 percent more persons aged 18 to 24 in 2010 …

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Since the Great Recession, a strong, steady pace of job creation has attracted thousands of new residents to the Texas capital. This growth has subsequently provided numerous job options for locals, pushing the area’s unemployment rate to 3 percent, one of the lowest in the country. Sinking unemployment, along with wages that have grown faster than the national rate, have spurred robust household formation trends over the last few years, benefiting the local housing market. Rents vs. Mortgages While the volume of apartment deliveries remains elevated compared to historical averages, favorable demographics and a shift in residents’ attitude toward homeownership keep demand for units strong. Rising home prices, especially within the city of Austin, have many residents looking to apartment living, as the concept of homeownership is fiscally out of reach. At the end of last year, the average effective rent of approximately $1,200 per month was $750 less than the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home, a disparity that has nearly doubled since 2012. As a result, the area’s homeownership rate has plummeted, clocking in at just over 50 percent in the third quarter of 2017, down from a high of 71 percent in 2006. As the renter …

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For retail tenants and developers alike, Houston’s Space City moniker could easily be interpreted as a kind of tongue-in-cheek double meaning, mainly because space is one thing Houston always has plenty of. Commercial developers have taken full advantage of that space in recent years, adding an eye-opening 16.3 million square feet of retail product over the last 36 months, according to a report from Colliers International. Houston added somewhere between 4 million and 4.5 million square feet of new retail during last year alone. That pedal-to-the-metal pace has been the clear headline for so long now that it almost feels odd to talk about a change of pace. But that’s exactly what seems to be taking place in Houston, as the commercial development marketplace is in the midst of transitioning from the explosive growth of recent years into a more demand-based dynamic. This is not a slowdown so much as a stabilization or a recalibration — a sprinter taking a breath between laps. This is an interesting and perhaps even necessary turn of events. Houston is a development-friendly city with a relative abundance of available and affordable land and a streamlined and generally permissive regulatory environment that makes permits, zoning …

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In recent months, a renaissance in the Houston’s urban core, paired with a flight to quality and focus on sustainable design, has created a perfect storm for the metro’s office sector. This revival has been combined with a renewed focus on living and working in Houston’s Central Business District (CBD), which has simultaneously driven a resurgence in both retail and mixed-use developments. Downtown Houston’s burgeoning multifamily market is one of the key drivers in Class A office development. Since 2013, downtown Houston has seen 3,355 new multifamily units hit the market. And according to industry estimates from the midway point of 2017, the multifamily market will continue to grow significantly — as much as 40 percent — by the end of this year. These trends, paired with a 6 percent increase in construction of new hotels, have created greater demand in the marketplace for mixed-use developments that offer diverse tenant mixes, including high-end retail and dining options. A Flight to Quality These shifting preferences among residents and employees within the city’s urban core has prompted a flight to high-quality, modern and energy-efficient buildings, as more tenants look for office space in Class A developments that boast top-of-the-line amenities. Over the …

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Houston’s resilient multifamily market has turned a corner and is poised for growth this year, according to experts across a range of industries. While the city faced significant headwinds in 2017, mainly a sluggish energy sector and a major hurricane that damaged thousands of homes and apartments, Houston’s strong fundamentals have paved the way for the multifamily market to post its strongest performance since 2015. The impacts of Hurricane Harvey generated unexpected changes in the multifamily market. The storm, estimated to be one of the costliest in U.S. history, damaged nearly 135,000 homes and more than 100,000 apartment units. Consequently, the rental market saw a spike in absorption from displaced homeowners and existing renters whose apartments were uninhabitable, thus reversing the supply imbalance and anemic rent growth that had stifled the market since the multifamily building boom — and subsequent oil bust — of  2015. Basic Numbers A surge in demand drove multifamily occupancy up 120 basis points to 90.1 percent between August and September of 2017, its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2015. The heightened demand translated into a monthly rent increase of 1.4 percent. In effect, rent grew to $999 per month on average in September, …

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