Texas Market Reports

The downturn in the upstream oil and gas industry, caused by the low prices of these commodities, has been the subject of continuous examination and prognostication since its onset in late 2014, particularly in the Houston region. Though it has diversified its economy somewhat since the 1980s, when its overdependence on that industry brought ruin to its economy, Houston remains the large Texas metro most economically tied to oil and gas. Houston benefited from those ties from 2011 to 2014, during the period of surging fortunes in that sector, by adding 380,000 jobs. However, because this tremendous boom in employment was less economically diversified than the region’s overall economy, when upstream oil and gas abruptly switched from growth to contraction, so did the region’s growth prospects. Houston’s other economic sectors at this point are not growing substantially enough to keep net growth strongly positive in terms of jobs. So far they are merely keeping the region in an essentially stagnant condition. The Push for Amenities All sectors of Houston-area real estate have felt an impact from this reversal, but to varying extents. The apartment market, which is traditionally among the sectors most directly tied to current employment levels, is receiving …

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Outsiders looking at the Houston industrial real estate market may automatically presume doom and gloom for all commercial real estate segments due to the significant downturn in the oil and gas industry during 2015 and 2016. When it comes to the Houston industrial sector, we caution not to jump to that conclusion too fast! In 2016, the Houston regional economy has much more going for it that creates industrial real estate demand than simply oil and gas. Momentum from economic drivers not dependent upon the oil and gas industry are stabilizing industrial real estate. They are also helping counter the drag on the area’s economy that may be attributed to excess inventory and price deflation in oil and gas. Through the end of the year, we expect activity in industrial leasing to remain relatively stable and to offer rental rates that are comparable to early 2016. Our confidence in the stability of industrial real estate is partially based on our fundamental understanding about segmentation in the energy industry that directly impacts Houston’s industrial real estate utilization. Oil and gas is not a simple, homogenous industry with all segments moving in lock step. Clearly, the energy downturn has hit oil and …

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Although Houston’s local economy is not exclusively dependent on oil and gas, re-energizing this sector will be key to a multifamily rebound in the area. Since the downturn in oil prices over the last two years, Houston’s multifamily market has been one of the most impacted victims of the area’s economic slowdown. Oil and gas is estimated to represent about one-fifth of Houston’s economy. This does not include construction and other new development that depends on the oil and gas industry. The Houston market’s annual rent growth rate is well below the national average of 4.1 percent, according to Axiometrics’ Houston-area Market Performance Survey. From the fourth quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, the annual growth rate in Houston’s multifamily sector was only 0.8 percent. The annual effective rent growth in the area is forecast to be 2.4 percent in 2017 and is expected to average 3.6 percent from 2018 to 2020. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in the Houston metro area was 0.3 percent in April 2016, reflecting 10,000 jobs added during the preceding 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was below the national number of 1.9 percent. Limited Demand On …

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Most of us have read articles or seen reports that suggest we are building too many apartment units in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Thus, we potentially could have a surplus of multifamily units resulting in lower occupancies and stabilizing rents (sorry to all the apartment renters — don’t anticipate rents going down). Let’s review historical data and trends, then see if we are truly overbuilding. Over the past 22 years, an average of 29,542 single-family building permits were issued annually across the Dallas/Fort Worth area. However, the figure fell to 22,678 on average from 2011 to 2015. Thus, over the past five years there were 34,320 less single-family units delivered than what the market has historically absorbed. In comparison, multifamily permits (those of two or more units) have averaged 14,094 annually over the past 22 years, and 18,417 annually from 2011 to 2015. Over the past three years, 2013 through 2015, the average increased for both single-family (25,937) and multifamily (21,231). The combined average of 47,168 permits over the last three years is above the 22-year average of 43,636 permits. Multifamily permits have most likely increased as a result of a significant decrease in single-family permits. We have only recently …

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As market momentum from 2015 spilled over into the first quarter of 2016 for the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, commercial retail metrics are still firing on all cylinders. The three key market indicators of occupancy, absorption and development are robust and expect to remain that way for the foreseeable future. With fundamentals in check and a thriving economy led by strong employment and population growth, metro Dallas will continue to be a thriving marketplace and a safe haven for investor capital. Record High Occupancy The Dallas-Fort Worth retail market ended 2015 with an impressive 93 percent occupancy — a little over a 1 percent increase from year-end 2014 — achieving its highest occupancy rate in the last three decades. The continued occupancy increase is directly related to net absorption and largely attributable to positive population and employment growth in the Metroplex. Continued Absorption Since 2012, absorption has continuously outpaced the delivery of new construction, and nothing in the foreseeable future looks to disturb this new norm. First quarter 2016 absorption totaled over 1.6 million square feet, with half of that figure attributed to new deliveries. This is the seventh consecutive quarter where absorption eclipsed 1 million square feet. This is …

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Houston will be among the nation’s leaders in retail property deliveries in 2016 as nearly 3 million square feet of space is scheduled for completion this year. The new construction will increase retail property supply by 1 percent, the fifth-largest rate of growth for retail space for major markets in the nation. Historically, Houston has had several growth spurts — and some economic recessions — related to the energy industry. The Houston metro area, known as a world capital in the oil and gas industry, has some obstacles to overcome as the upstream oil sector is losing a significant number of jobs. Yet other area employers have gained momentum, keeping job growth positive. Since the Great Recession, Houston’s annual job growth of 2.9 percent has outpaced the national rate of expansion by approximately 130 basis points. However, energy-related layoffs have caused the market to trail national employment growth by the same spread in the last year. Similar to 2015, between 15,000 to 20,000 jobs are forecast to be created this year, maintaining the metro’s positive job outlook. Growth in other sectors of the Houston area’s economy, like health care and downstream oil-and-gas operations, is positively influencing the market and keeping …

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Grocery stores are always getting a better understanding of the priorities of their core customers. Convenience, value and service are the top reasons people shop where they shop. However, those priorities are expanding. The focus has shifted away from simply providing a “one size fits all” solution toward a customized strategy to attract a cross-section of customers — from the everyday shopper to experienced foodie. By doing so, retail spaces are successfully opening across the state at an elevated rate, addressing growing customer demand while navigating the ever-changing market. Here are five items impacting grocery stores in our state. Educated Customers Customers are becoming more educated about the products they buy. Their expectations are changing. Retailers are finding creative ways to successfully addressing them. To increase revenue and margins, drug stores are getting into the mix, with mixed results. Established chains like Walgreens and CVS/Pharmacy are renovating over 400 locations, with increased emphasis on rebranding their drug stores as health/wellness retailers and expanding the grocery items kept in stock. Big box stores, like Walmart, are also making changes as they try to refine their market strategies. The company announced that approximately 102 of its smaller Walmart Express stores will be …

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In 2016, uncertainty in the oil and gas industry has made a major impact on the Fort Worth commercial real estate market. While each submarket is affected differently, the need for relocations and renovations will lead to a rising demand for quality office and retail spaces across the area. Development of Fort Worth real estate is expected to remain strong in 2016, with growing opportunities that create a strong and healthy market. Office Opportunity Downtown Fort Worth has become a hub for major players in the oil and gas industry, such as Holland Services, Forestar Oil & Gas and FTS International. Within the last 180 days, these tenants have put over 125,000 square feet of office space up on the market for sublease. However, the rest of the office sector has been consistently absorbing large blocks of space, proving healthy despite oil and gas concerns. We have seen at least six transactions totaling over 385,000 square feet within the last six months. Transactions included Charles Schwab’s 130,000-square-foot lease at Circle T in Westlake, and Teague Nall & Perkins’ 42,000-square-foot lease of the former Everest College building at the Mercantile Center in Fort Worth. The consistently strong demand for quality office …

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Mexico is what drives El Paso. Mexico is the dog and El Paso is the tail. When the dog is happy the tail gets to wag, and we’re wagging pretty hard right now. The El Paso industrial market hasn’t been this strong since at least 1990. Juarez, Chihuahua, El Paso’s Mexican counterpart directly across the border, posted a third consecutive year of positive industrial absorption in 2015. Build-to-suit development activity is at a level not seen in five years. As a direct result, El Paso’s industrial vacancy rate dipped below 9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, the strongest tenancy performance in nearly a decade, according to Cushman & Wakefield | PIRES International. All the leasing activity we’ve been seeing has been chewing into the city’s vacancy rate. El Paso’s Class A vacancy rate is now below 2 percent. For example, in February, Los Angeles-based BH Properties leased a 409,000-square-foot industrial space located at 9600 Pan American Drive between Interstate 10 and the Rio Grande to a subsidiary of Sweden-based Electrolux Group. Electrolux Group chose the location because it is near the Zaragoza Bridge, El Paso’s far-east port of entry, providing convenient access to the company’s plant across the …

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Retail and restaurant activity is strong in Houston. The Woodlands, an award-winning master planned community located 27 miles north of downtown Houston, has defied the negative impact of the oil and gas market by staying extremely solid with high occupancy and strong rents.  Both retail and restaurants have seen robust growth. “Despite reports of Houston’s economic slowdown, the retail market isn’t fazed by the dropping oil prices,” says CBRE’s Houston retail research report for third quarter 2015. “In fact, construction has increased, national retailers are bullish on the Bayou City and five years of the strongest population gains in the nation are driving healthy retail growth.” Retail occupancy in the Far North sector, including The Woodlands, remains at approximately 94 percent for the third quarter of 2015, according to CBRE. Suburban Expansion While traffic in the Houston area continues to become congested, suburban cities such as The Woodlands offer shoppers and diners almost all of their retail needs within the walls of the community. Residents are finding no reason to leave. Retail in Houston and The Woodlands is limited by supply. As quickly as construction begins on new retail sites, preleasing occurs. “Fortunately, there is currently 2.6 million square feet …

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