El Paso in 2017 is a story of growth. Sales tax rebates increased over 10 percent in 2016 — second among the 20 largest cities in Texas. Since 2000, the El Paso-area population has increased by more than 27 percent, and as the longtime adage goes, “retail follows rooftops.” Long under the radar of national concepts, El Paso’s retail sector is changing. Major retail developments in El Paso are gaining national attention. One of the catalysts contributing to this interest is the success of the Fountains at Farah development, a 600,000-square-foot retail center with shops, restaurants and a live music amphitheater. The Fountains has attracted concepts such as Nordstrom Rack, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Kate Spade, West Elm, Grimald’s, Chuy’s, Kona Grill and Bricktown Tap House & Kitchen, to name a few. The ability of this large-scale center to attract popular national and super-regional concepts that are “new to El Paso” has provided an impetus for other developers to pursue similar developments. Add to the mix the low interest rate environment and a growing population with a stable economy, and you have a development boom. Retail takes city by storm On the west side of the city, major developments include …
San Antonio evokes many positive images: the River Walk, the Alamo, Fiesta, the Mission Trail, Texas Hill Country and more. All of these images have one thing in common: hospitality. San Antonio is known for its warmth and hospitality. It is a fun place to visit for the many conventioneers and tourists that are attracted to the city year after year. It is also a good place to do business and a great place to live. Strength of the Market San Antonio boasts a strong economy. Overall employment grew at 3.5 percent over the past year, including an above-average growth of 3.2 percent for hospitality, retail and healthcare employment. Unemployment declined to 3.6 percent in July 2016, with strong increases in the labor force, according to Moody’s Analytics. Tourism and convention activity drive the economy, strengthened by a large military and cybersecurity presence. Manufacturing, healthcare and energy round out San Antonio’s strong, stable economy. The San Antonio lodging industry has also maintained a strong and steady pattern. While other Texas markets are adding a lot of new supply, San Antonio has kept the number of new hotel rooms to a minimum, adding only about 1,000 rooms over the past five …
As we near the end of 2016, we also mark another strong year for the San Antonio retail market. In fact, the market is strong enough that we can retire the word recovery and replace it with expansion. Expansion, in a nutshell, means that the retail market has not only matched the pre-recession occupancy level of 92 percent, it has exceeded it. San Antonio currently boasts a healthy occupancy rate of 94 percent, even as key vacancies from Sports Authority came onto the market during the past year. The Alamo City is able to maintain the balance due to the fact that vacancy added by the sporting goods retailer was offset by fully leased construction and the backfilling of major retail box spaces. The Weitzman Group currently reviews approximately 45 million square feet of retail inventory in San Antonio centers with 25,000 square feet or more. Like the retail market, San Antonio’s economy also continues to grow, based on solid population and job growth. The metro area market, as of September 2016, reports an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent. This is well below the country’s rate of 4.8 percent, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. The metro area also ranks …
In spite of the “noise” created by headlines about low oil prices and energy industry layoffs, west Houston, home to several of the world’s largest energy companies, continues to have strong fundamentals based on decades of phenomenal growth and high-quality development. At Wolff Companies, we have been investing in West Houston for over 45 years. From this long-term perspective, we remain bullish on Houston and, in particular, West Houston, where continuing favorable demographic and economic trends tell a different story than the current headlines. West Houston is a city unto itself. With a population of 1.7 million, it would rank as the fifth largest city in the United States — ahead of Philadelphia, Phoenix or Dallas. It has its own downtown, or central business district (CBD), comprised of four major activity centers: CityCentre/Memorial City, Westchase, The Energy Corridor and Westway Park. All of these are within a few minutes of the intersection of Interstate 10 and the Sam Houston Tollway/Beltway 8. This intersection is also the current statistical center of Houston’s population distribution, a focal point which is expected to continue to move westward to the intersection of I-10 and Barker Cypress Road by 2025. High-Quality Growth Despite the cyclical …
Success breeds success. That adage, more than any other, defines the Dallas-Fort Worth economy and its strong multifamily market. In the last five years, a number of companies, such as Toyota North America and Nationstar Mortgage, impressed by the advantages of doing business in Dallas-Fort Worth, have relocated their headquarters here. These companies were attracted by the area’s central location, equidistant from both coasts, as well as an educated workforce, a diverse economy and a favorable business climate. This year Jamba Juice, among other companies, took notice and announced that they are joining the migration to north Texas. Even companies not choosing to uproot their headquarters are expanding their presence in Dallas-Fort Worth. Early this year, JPMorgan Chase picked Plano’s Legacy West development for a new 6,000-employee campus, next door to Toyota as well as Liberty Mutual, which itself will add 5,000 workers to a huge new service center it is building there. Also this year, Fannie Mae announced it would move more than 1,000 workers to Plano, the medical giant McKesson revealed plans to add 1,000 office jobs in Irving and Pegasus Foods chose Rockwall for a new plant that will employ 300. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ …
Growth. It is occurring all across the Rio Grande Valley. From the residential sector to the retail development industry, regional statistics indicate there is an overwhelming boom in the Valley. The rise in the region’s population and the increasing number of yearly visits from Mexican nationals, among other factors, are contributing to the boom. The Rio Grande Valley commercial real estate industry has seen steady, consistent growth over the last two years. National retailers looking to incorporate themselves into the local economy or expand their existing business include Main Event Entertainment, Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers, Menchie’s Frozen Yogurt, Dave & Busters, Dick’s Sporting Goods, HomeGoods, Chick-fil-A and Walmart. Local and international retailers including Super Cream Restaurant & Bakery, Kurai Sushi Buffet, and Dona Tota are also expanding in the region. Other entities helping to spur growth in the commercial real estate industry are the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) campuses in Edinburg, Harlingen and Brownsville, and a number of large investment retail projects in the upper and mid-valley including the development of the 8,500-seat Bert Ogden Arena in Hidalgo County. Impact of UTRGV The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley is less than two years old and boasts …
Last summer, NAI Rio Grande Valley and Michael Uhrbrock, senior vice president of research at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, examined eight Rio Grande Valley cities to examine the history of retail sales between 2002 and 2014 and to forecast the future. The cities examined were McAllen, Brownsville, Harlingen, Edinburg, Pharr, Weslaco, Mission and Mercedes. We were working on a piece for the Rio Grande Valley Partnership’s Economic Development magazine. What we learned is quite interesting and presents an unusual view into the future potential for retail expansion in the Rio Grande Valley. Total retail sales in the eight cities increased $4.47 billion between 2002 and 2014. Forecasting the future required a view of low, median and high ranges of potential sales. Based on the high projections, it is anticipated that valley sales in these cities will increase by $13.68 billion between 2015 and 2030. A number of factors go into the results, but several factors are expected contribute to the expected increases. Growth in Many Sectors With 1,450,000 residents, the population of the Rio Grande Valley today is larger than that of nine states. Forecasts show the population will grow to 2.5 million by 2040, which does …
The downturn in the upstream oil and gas industry, caused by the low prices of these commodities, has been the subject of continuous examination and prognostication since its onset in late 2014, particularly in the Houston region. Though it has diversified its economy somewhat since the 1980s, when its overdependence on that industry brought ruin to its economy, Houston remains the large Texas metro most economically tied to oil and gas. Houston benefited from those ties from 2011 to 2014, during the period of surging fortunes in that sector, by adding 380,000 jobs. However, because this tremendous boom in employment was less economically diversified than the region’s overall economy, when upstream oil and gas abruptly switched from growth to contraction, so did the region’s growth prospects. Houston’s other economic sectors at this point are not growing substantially enough to keep net growth strongly positive in terms of jobs. So far they are merely keeping the region in an essentially stagnant condition. The Push for Amenities All sectors of Houston-area real estate have felt an impact from this reversal, but to varying extents. The apartment market, which is traditionally among the sectors most directly tied to current employment levels, is receiving …
Outsiders looking at the Houston industrial real estate market may automatically presume doom and gloom for all commercial real estate segments due to the significant downturn in the oil and gas industry during 2015 and 2016. When it comes to the Houston industrial sector, we caution not to jump to that conclusion too fast! In 2016, the Houston regional economy has much more going for it that creates industrial real estate demand than simply oil and gas. Momentum from economic drivers not dependent upon the oil and gas industry are stabilizing industrial real estate. They are also helping counter the drag on the area’s economy that may be attributed to excess inventory and price deflation in oil and gas. Through the end of the year, we expect activity in industrial leasing to remain relatively stable and to offer rental rates that are comparable to early 2016. Our confidence in the stability of industrial real estate is partially based on our fundamental understanding about segmentation in the energy industry that directly impacts Houston’s industrial real estate utilization. Oil and gas is not a simple, homogenous industry with all segments moving in lock step. Clearly, the energy downturn has hit oil and …
Although Houston’s local economy is not exclusively dependent on oil and gas, re-energizing this sector will be key to a multifamily rebound in the area. Since the downturn in oil prices over the last two years, Houston’s multifamily market has been one of the most impacted victims of the area’s economic slowdown. Oil and gas is estimated to represent about one-fifth of Houston’s economy. This does not include construction and other new development that depends on the oil and gas industry. The Houston market’s annual rent growth rate is well below the national average of 4.1 percent, according to Axiometrics’ Houston-area Market Performance Survey. From the fourth quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, the annual growth rate in Houston’s multifamily sector was only 0.8 percent. The annual effective rent growth in the area is forecast to be 2.4 percent in 2017 and is expected to average 3.6 percent from 2018 to 2020. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in the Houston metro area was 0.3 percent in April 2016, reflecting 10,000 jobs added during the preceding 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was below the national number of 1.9 percent. Limited Demand On …