For years El Paso was thought of as a sleepy little outpost in far West Texas on the Mexican border. Many people from the rest of the state knew little about the city, and thought it well suited to be part of New Mexico. The economy was always fairly stable especially in the commercial real estate sector. There was never boom nor bust, just steady growth fueled internally. Arguably the biggest things to happen in El Paso were the construction of Interstate 10 and the Sun Bowl. That was of course until recently with the opening of the Texas Tech School of Medicine, and explosive growth at Fort Bliss. The Army post is in the last phases of a $4.5 billion expansion. That does not include a $1.5 billion, 250-acre Army medical campus, and VA Hospital that recently broke ground. It is estimated that Ft Bliss’s population will expand by 40,000 troops and their families during the next few years. In spite of the economic downturn, El Paso’s future is as bright as ever. It has received many national accolades. Forbes Magazine recently ranked the city as having the 2nd best performing economy nationally in 2011. El Paso is the …
Texas Market Reports
2011 was a good year for the Dallas office market with above average demand, minimal new construction and two quarters of rising overall asking rates. If you look at the Dallas office market since 2001, a typical year net absorption is usually about 800,000 square feet. In 2011, the Dallas market recorded more than 1.6 million square feet. New construction (excluding owner-occupied properties) averages 2.5 million square feet for that same time period, but a little more than 200,000 square feet was completed in 2011. Still, the overall total vacancy rate remains higher than normal at 22.5 percent. Keep in mind Dallas, with its abundance of land and pro-development climate, rarely dips below 20 percent vacancy. The average total vacancy since 2001 is 21.4 percent. Typically if it nears 20 percent, the construction cycle picks up again and more new product is brought to the market. That’s about where the market is headed at this point. Developers have not made any official announcements for new construction yet, but more than a few are prepared to break ground on potential projects in a few submarkets (Far North Dallas and the Dallas CBD being two of the more likely submarkets). Unless there …
The Austin multifamily market is extremely strong overall, with the most robust submarkets found in the Central Business District, South Central and Southwest submarkets. Due to the number of previously shelved projects coming back online, potential deliveries in 2012 will likely be around 3,500 units, followed by another 5,500 units or so in 2013. However, there are no major projects scheduled to be completed in 2012 that will have a drastic effect on the market — most of the starts that have taken place will not come on line until the first part of 2013. As a result, the upward push on occupancy and rental rates seen during 2011 will continue throughout 2012 — until the market sees some of these new projects coming online, owners of Austin multifamily properties will continue to be aggressive on rents and not offer concessions. One of the leading factors supporting this focused rise in apartment revenues is Austin’s ranking as one of the top growth markets for jobs. In particular, the CBD and South Central areas have seen an influx of new companies that want to be located in the middle of the action — and, thanks to the employees brought to the …
The land market in Austin, like the rest of the country, is driven by future expectations throughout the real estate product types from new home construction and apartments to office, retail and industrial development. Therefore, the same underlying fundamentals driving demand for new construction will also drive the demand for land development. Fortunately, Austin, like much of Texas, continues to outperform the nation economically. While the recovery has been sluggish elsewhere, Austin continues to gain economic momentum. Most metro areas throughout the country have yet to recover the employment losses sustained through the Great Recession. Austin with a net job growth of 16,300 in 2011 has now surpassed its pre-recession employment peak of 770,000 in August 2008. Current estimated employment is more than 787,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Austin remains attractive to a variety of employers because of its educational infrastructure, young educated workforce, IT infrastructure and concentration of technology industries. While not the lowest cost of living or the lowest cost of doing business it is far and away more affordable than other tech centers such as San Jose, California, Boston and northern Virginia. Consistently ranked high by top economic development, relocation and business consultants, Austin …
The Houston retail market experienced modest improvement in 2011 as the area economy began to shake off the effects of the national recession with strong local job growth and reasonably steady, if not particularly noteworthy, housing starts. Positive retail space absorption of 2.8 million square feet combined with only 1.2 million square feet of new construction resulted in a decline in the overall retail vacancy rate from 7.1 percent in the first quarter of 2011 to 6.7 percent at year-end. However, average quoted rental rates edged down slightly from $14.51 per square foot in the first quarter to $14.35 per square foot in the fourth quarter. Although the retail statistics for the past year aren’t terribly compelling on their own, they are more encouraging in the context of the regional economy in the sense that retail leasing and development activity generally lags the overall economy. The national recession hit Houston in full force in September 2008. The area lost 152,800 jobs through January 2010. In February 2010, Houston began to create new jobs again, and by October 2011, Houston had regained all the jobs lost during the recession. The Greater Houston Partnership projects that the Houston metro area will add …
The Houston retail market experienced modest improvement in 2011 as the area economy began to shake off the effects of the national recession with strong local job growth and reasonably steady, if not particularly noteworthy, housing starts. Positive retail space absorption of 2.8 million square feet combined with only 1.2 million square feet of new construction resulted in a decline in the overall retail vacancy rate from 7.1 percent in the first quarter of 2011 to 6.7 percent at year-end. However, average quoted rental rates edged down slightly from $14.51 per square foot in the first quarter to $14.35 per square foot in the fourth quarter. Although the retail statistics for the past year aren’t terribly compelling on their own, they are more encouraging in the context of the regional economy in the sense that retail leasing and development activity generally lags the overall economy. The national recession hit Houston in full force in September 2008. The area lost 152,800 jobs through January 2010. In February 2010, Houston began to create new jobs again, and by October 2011, Houston had regained all the jobs lost during the recession. The Greater Houston Partnership projects that the Houston metro area will add …
Austin’s industrial market tends to be a bell-weather for the local economy, as the market is more focused on local consumption rather than logistics for the transport of goods to other markets. As a result, employment and the overall health of the local economy are reflected in the demand and supply of warehouse, flex and general industrial product. Austin’s go-go economy of 2005 until 2008 saw a rapid absorption of product, as well as more than 2 million square feet of new developments that hit the market during that period. As the economy turned south in 2008, employment numbers and consumer confidence followed. The result was that new product delivered in 2008 and early 2009 took longer to lease. There were also casualties over this time period as projects such as Centerpoint at Colorado Crossing and Plaza 35 went into foreclosure. We are now seeing a return to normalcy, as absorption improved markedly with 477,518 square feet of industrial product absorbed in the third quarter. This is broken down into 183,577 square feet of warehouse/distribution product, 150,121 square feet of general industrial product and 143,820 square feet of R&D/flex space. This market sector has witnessed significant fluctuations in absorption during …
When we look back at the last couple of years in the Dallas/Fort Worth industrial real estate sector, it is absolutely certain that it’s been great to be a tenant. Landlords have been fighting for new deals and trying to keep the ones they have. But is next year going to be better or worse than this year? In the past year, there have been glimmers that the real estate market and the economy might be on the rebound. With a complete lack of any notable new speculative industrial construction in the past 3 years in DFW, we’ve all been working to fill up the existing vacant inventory. In the past 4 quarters, we’ve seen positive absorption of approximately 10 million square feet. We’ve moved the needle in DFW from 11.5 percent vacancy, to 10.5 percent in one year’s time. While that’s significant compared to where we’ve been, it’s approximately half of where we were in 2007 when we saw more than 20 million square feet of industrial absorption in 2007 in DFW alone. While it seems that the market is positioning itself for some sustained growth, the flex sector of the industrial market still seems to be flagging. Vacancy …
As the national market recession began in 2008, and started to settle in throughout the city of Houston around mid-year 2009, businesses focused on the implementation of efficiency, accomplishing more with fewer resources applied to the daily routine. In most business models, the most expensive resources are the current staff, followed closely by office space. In that most office leases are illiquid, downsizing of non-essential personnel is logically the most expedient way to an immediate impact on the bottom line during an economic downturn. However, this also results in an immediate surplus of office space per person or phantom vacancy; a pattern logically should trend downward during a recessionary cycle in the economy. According to CoStar data from the 3rd quarter 2011 webinar, the average square footage per worker has increased by almost 10% since 2008, and leveling off after 2009 without significant decrease. Certainly, the trend is quite the opposite of what we would expect today, arguably even in a stable economy as the trend is increasingly toward efficiency. However, such excess may not only be to the lack of the ability to dispose of such vacancy, but the intentional positioning where employers are seeking to recruit quality personnel …
The downtown San Antonio office sector is shining brightest when compared to the second quarter. Vacancy has declined from 29 percent to 24 percent and absorption is in the black. “The downtown San Antonio office market experienced a big win in the third quarter,” says Kim Gatley, senior VP and director of research for NAI REOC San Antonio. Some of the major transactions for the CBD include HVHC Inc. leasing 112,652 square feet and Argo Group US Inc. leasing 77,000 square feet at the IBC Centre I & II complex. Transactions like these have lead to 265,034 square feet of positive absorption this quarter. But it's at the expense of the suburban market, which is struggling with 99,504 square feet of negative absorption this quarter. Year-to-date, San Antonio's non-CBD properties have posted 62,580 square feet of negative absorption. Citywide, there is 165,530 square feet of positive absorption in the third quarter, but the year-to-date total sits at 129,871 square feet of negative net absorption. Vacancy, however, remained relatively stable at 19.9 percent. Rental rates citywide have risen 2.1 percent from last quarter to sit at $21.11 per square foot. Bright areas for San Antonio: • Domicilio Conocido purchased Pacific Plaza …