The market for soft and hard goods remains somewhat weak due to uncertainty in the economy and labor market (although the Houston job market is generally stronger than the rest of the country). However, in the last several months, many big boxes that went dark due to bankruptcies and/or downsizing have been absorbed, either in the totality or because of the lack of 50,000-square-foot tenants in the market. Landlords have had to get creative and divide larger spaces to accommodate smaller tenants. Generally, the most active tenants in this arena have been health clubs, discount stores, dollar stores and non-traditional retailers. Landlords, eager to fill dark spaces, are making very aggressive deals (low base rents, extra tenant allowances, more free rent, etc.). On the other hand, fast casual (FC), quick-serve restaurants (QSRs) and casual dining remains robust. As such, many companies are aggressively seeking locations in Houston. It has been increasingly difficult to find locations that can accommodate FC, QSR’s (especially users with a drive-thru) and casual dining needs because quality locations have become scarce and parking requirements can’t be adequately met. Alternatively, fine dining has been spotty with good thru-puts but lower average checks. Many restaurateurs have been reluctant …
Texas Market Reports
Industrial real estate activity is up in the El Paso/Juarez, Mexico metro area, indicating that the recession-driven slump, which had been intensified by reported violence on the border, has not deterred companies from making long-term commitments to the region. The increase in industrial leasing and sales, as well as improved employment statistics and increasing commercial truck crossing data are all positive signs for the future of the local industrial economy. The industrial market in El Paso and Juarez totals 115 million square feet split between two countries and is an intersection of international manufacturing firms, global supply chains and the local economy. During the past 3 years both the global recession and security situation in Mexico have reverberated across the industrial market. However, industrial leasing and sale activity is up on both sides of the border, with Juarez leading the way at 658,000 square feet of net absorption during the first 6 months of the year, and El Paso recording 264,000 square feet. However, El Paso was the first city to start the rebound in 2010 with almost 600,000 square feet of net industrial absorption in the second half of the year. Both markets have seen industrial vacancy levels recede …
Austin remains a popular destination for institutional and private multifamily investors. In the first half of 2010, there was a scarcity premium as buyer demand far exceeded the number of properties offered for sale. It was common to give 50-plus property tours and receive roughly 40 offers for a fully marketed Class A apartment community. The enormous amount of investment capital raised in 2008 and 2009 struggled to find a home in early 2010. As apartment fundamentals improved, interest rates decreased and cap rates compressed, more product came to market in the third quarter of 2010. Subsequently, the number of investor tours and offers has been cut in half. Offers today are coming from well-capitalized low leverage private investors, pension fund advisors, private funds and public REITs. Urban Class A cap rates have dropped from 6.5 percent in late 2009 to an average of 4.75 percent today. Suburban Class A cap rates are trading around 5.25 percent. The 1980s to 1990s vintage, B class product, is trading in a range from 5.75 to 6.75 percent based on quality and location. The highest conventional apartment sales prices have occurred in and around the Central Business District (CBD) where mid-rise Class A …
The resumption of job growth and significant reductions in new construction will support improvement in Dallas/Fort Worth apartment fundamentals through the end of the year. During the first half of 2010, employment in the metroplex increased by 32,600 jobs, a welcome turnaround after the loss of 124,000 positions during the recession. While the financial, information and trade, transportation and utilities sectors shed a combined 6,000 jobs in the first half, the government, manufacturing, and education and health services sectors led job creation, adding 34,000 positions. As a result, the unemployment rate in Dallas/Fort Worth dropped roughly 10 basis points to 8.2 percent in the first half and remains well below the national average. Developers will deliver approximately 7,600 apartment units in 2010, down nearly 56 percent from 2009 and more closely aligned with new-supply trends in 2006 and 2007. Construction remains focused on the Dallas side of the Metroplex, with developers in Tarrant County completing 2,675 units during the past year. New supply in Fort Worth was isolated to the North Arlington, Northern Tarrant County and Northwest Fort Worth submarkets. After rising 360 basis points through the recession, apartment vacancy in Dallas/Fort Worth declined 80 basis points to 8.9 percent …
Dallas/Fort Worth’s retail market continues to show the impact of the economic downturn, most notably in a lower occupancy rate. But the market at mid-year 2010 is showing signs of getting a little better. The market is helped by the improving economy. For example, April represented the third month in a row of positive job growth in D/FW, although overall unemployment remains more than 8 percent. As of mid-year, D/FW shows an occupancy rate of approximately 86.2 percent, compared to 86.4 percent at year-end 2009. The rate, which is very low, results in part from the many vacant boxes that were created in the past few years by the closures of Circuit City, Linens ‘n Things, Shoe Pavilion, Steve & Barry’s and Mervyn’s, plus underpforming grocer and department store locations. The rate remains fairly consistent thanks to a market where no major chains have gone out of business. Other than a handful of 2010 closings of underperforming Blockbuster stores (following a number of 2009 closings), we haven’t seen major chain pullbacks similar to when Linens ‘n Things failed in late 2008 and Circuit City and closed its last stores in early 2009, putting hundreds of thousands of feet back onto …
Despite a spike in supply last year and increasing competition from the affordable housing sector, San Antonio’s solid labor market and resilient economy will help to improve apartment fundamentals by the close of 2010. Following steep inventory additions in the first quarter, deliveries will slow significantly through the second half of the year. As renter demand begins to outpace supply growth, owners will trim incentives, reversing 10 quarters of revenue declines. The lower tiers will register the greatest revenue increases, supported by vacancy improvements toward the end of the year. Foreclosure activity has increased 19 percent over last year, and some top-tier renters will likely to make the transition into homeownership this year as these properties come to market. Class B and Class C operators will get a boost from the strengthened labor market as traditionally blue-collar employment sectors start to recover rapidly. In the construction sector, for instance, roughly 1,200 construction workers will be hired in the next few months to complete the Brooke Army Medical Center. During the last 12 months, developers have ramped up the pace of completions to 3,620 units, or a 2.5 percent inventory expansion, following the delivery of 2,490 units in the previous year. …
The Austin retail market is holding steady in the current economy due in no small part to positive media coverage. According to Sherry Sanchez of NAI Austin, numerous media organizations have placed the city near the top in many “best of” ranking lists. These honors have helped keep the retail market stable because job seekers from all over Texas have been coming to Austin, moved by reports of finding better jobs in the Capitol City. “There's a big huge flight of people moving to central Texas who don't even have jobs yet,” she says. “We have job opportunities all over the map for people from blue-collar workers to white-collar workers.” Companies in the city are also spurred on by stimulus money aimed at green energy projects. Finally, the stability of government jobs means a large number of Austinites are gainfully employed. But because no markets anywhere in the country are thriving, these factors mean that Austin is simply staying ahead of the glut. “We're not seeing attrition as rapidly as they are in a lot of parts of the country. Our service providers are hanging in there — some are expanding — and our restaurants are doing well,” Sanchez says. …
The abundance of completed units delivered to the market has had the biggest effect on the Dallas/Fort Worth multifamily sector. From September 2008 to September 2009, almost 15,000 units were completed in the Metroplex — nearly double the 7,600-unit annual average during the previous 5 years. Occupancy in the Dallas area dropped 0.2 percent to 89.8 percent during the third quarter of 2009, its lowest point since early 2005. However, occupancy for newer product held steady, while occupancy in older product tiers has suffered. The 1990s-era properties were the only product age category to achieve occupancy of more than 90 percent in the quarter, posting 92.4 percent occupancy. During the third quarter, 2000s-era product posted an 89.4 percent occupancy rate, and 1980s-era product posted an 89.8 percent occupancy rate. MPF Research forecasts that occupancy will drop 170 basis points to 88.1 percent in the next 12 months, given the huge stock of new deliveries expected to hit the market. New construction deliveries will also cause rents to drop further while rent concessions are expected to increase. One planned construction project is the redevelopment of the historic Continental Building downtown. The Dallas City Council approved $17 million in tax increment financing …
Historically, hotel rooms in San Antonio have either been in the central business district (CBD) or near the airport and “loop land.” In the 1980s and ’90s, there were two top golf resort properties built — Hyatt Hill Country Golf Resort near Sea World and Westin La Cantera Golf Resort near Six Flags Fiesta Texas — that attracted a new set of business. Additionally, the highway-located budget properties began posting strong numbers. In more recent years, hotel chains have recognized the need to cater to a mid-to-upscale market of tourists and small business road warriors who were unable to find hotel rooms during special events (such as The Final Four) for large conventions or during the busy summer months. Mid-upscale properties, including Marriott, Intercontinental Hotels, Hilton, Starwood, Sheraton, Hyatt, Doubletree, Drury, as well as boutique CBD/River Walk properties such as The Valencia, Watermark Hotel & Spa and Hotel Contessa, were developed and changed the entire complexion of the hospitality market in San Antonio. This year, there have been three major developments that are impacting the hospitality market in San Antonio: • The completion of a 1,000-room Hyatt Regency hotel/condo project adjacent to the Convention Center on the River Walk • …
The impact of today’s worldwide economic downturn and credit crunch is significant, but it is in no way the worst in history, especially for Houston. Houston was hit harder than other markets in the 1980s; in a way, this guaranteed that the city would be ahead of the rest of the nation in terms of avoiding a recession. Compared to the rest of the country, current demand for retail space in the area continues to be high, and the city has a relatively low vacancy rate of about 10 to 12 percent. Houston’s economy is still largely based on energy, but to a lesser extent than in years past. Houston’s growing population and strong economy continues to fuel a reasonably healthy retail market. A relatively low unemployment rate and a low cost of living are driving forces of the resilient market. In 2008, as most of the country was experiencing downsizing, Houston had a net gain of approximately 57,000 jobs in the region. Residents have continued to shop, but the habit of buying has changed — or it has at least slowed down a bit. Nonetheless, retailers consistently say Houston is one of the strongest performing markets in the country. …