— By Bryce Aberg and Brant Aberg of Cushman & Wakefield — Optimism is returning to the San Diego industrial market after a few quarters of recalibration. Buyer appetite has resurfaced in core submarkets like Otay Mesa, Miramar and Carlsbad, which has created a ripple effect across the Greater San Diego industrial market. With an inventory of 162 million square feet as of the second quarter, San Diego is beginning to see the benefit of limited supply. Natural barriers like Mexico, the Pacific Ocean, Camp Pendleton and the nearby mountains are driving the San Diego industrial market toward full build-out. There is currently only 2.4 million square feet of inventory under construction, with not much more proposed. Following the all-time highs in rent growth and positive absorption seen in 2021 and 2022, San Diego’s enduring fundamentals and built-in advantages have kept it in place as one of the most stable and competitive in Southern California. With a diversified tenant base, high barriers to entry and a strategic position on the U.S.-Mexico border, fundamentals have held while others in the Southern California region have struggled in comparison. Bid-ask spreads are also starting to narrow as buyer and seller sentiments begin to …
— By Berkadia — San Diego’s apartment market is poised to strengthen in 2025, with demand poised to set a record and fundamentals outperforming most other major California metros. This is a welcome change from 2024, where a slower leasing environment for Class A properties led to more concessions. The big story is demand. More than 9,900 net units are expected to be leased this year, surpassing the previous high of 9,500 in 2021. This figure will also outpace what is likely to be a record year for new deliveries, with 7,233 units slated to debut this year across the metro. By year-end, occupancy is projected to climb to 96.3 percent, up 90 basis points from 2024 and above the market’s 10-year pre-pandemic average. That puts San Diego ahead of Los Angeles, San Francisco-Oakland and San Jose on the occupancy leaderboard. Effective rent is expected to rise 3.1 percent year over year to a projected $2,868, marking a solid improvement from last year’s flat performance. Fundamentals Point to a Solid Year Employment growth remains a tailwind. The metro added 16,200 new jobs between May 2024 and May 2025, pushing total employment to nearly 1.6 million. That economic momentum is supporting …
— By Bryan Cunningham of JLL — The retail sector continues to be a bright spot for commercial real estate in San Diego County. Despite financial headwinds that include interest rates, construction costs and increases in operating costs like labor and insurance, the resiliency of the consumer has allowed retailers and restaurants to continue to generate substantial sales volumes. Both national and regional retail and restaurant tenants continue to expand, although more cautiously than in years past. Retail vacancy rates in San Diego continue to hover around 5 percent, with the more desirable coastal communities closer to 3 percent. The lack of new development due to geographical constraints, as well as interest rates and construction costs, is driving expanding tenants to look purely at second-generation retail centers. While the retail tenant pool is somewhat shallow due to bankruptcies by Bed Bath & Beyond, 99 Cents Only, Party City, JoAnn Stores and the like, the lack of new product is keeping well-positioned shopping centers in high demand. Most grocery- and big box-anchored shopping centers are enjoying rents at record levels with very little vacancy. Retail centers continue to be at the forefront of interest from investors as well. While interest rates …
— By Brett Meinzer of MMG Real Estate Advisors — Despite ongoing challenges, Phoenix’s multifamily market is showing signs of stabilization and strength in key areas. Record Demand, Even in a Cooling Market In first-quarter 2025, net absorption reached 5,149 units, more than double the 10-year quarterly average and the second-highest quarterly total on record. On a 12-month basis, the market absorbed 18,413 units, setting a new high. “We’re seeing demand return to peak levels,” said Brett Meinzer, advisor at MMG Real Estate. “The number of units leased in the last year shows Phoenix’s long-term story remains intact.” Supply Is Slowing, Signaling Potential Stabilization While new supply remains elevated, the pace is shifting. First-quarter deliveries declined 36 percent from the prior quarter, and the development pipeline is now nearly 50 percent below its recent peak. “After years of heavy deliveries, the pipeline is thinning,” Meinzer said. “This pullback could help stabilize rent and occupancy rates as we head into 2025.” Rent Trends Still Negative But Improving Phoenix’s effective rent currently stands at $1,560, down 2.3 percent year over year, with average occupancy at 91.9 percent. Rent softness is largely driven by concessions and intense lease-up competition from new construction. However, …
— By Chris High, Steve Bruce and Conor Evans of Colliers — We’re in the middle of a market recalibration. On the office side, leasing has slowed significantly, with tenants downsizing footprints and pushing for shorter terms as hybrid work remains a dominant driver. In life sciences, we saw explosive growth from 2020 to mid-2022, but that pace has tapered off. VC funding is more selective, and some developers who stretched to convert commodity office and flex properties into lab space, often with less-than-ideal infrastructure, during the boom years, are now rethinking those strategies. Still, demand for high-quality, fitted lab space remains, especially in well-located projects by experienced owners like Longfellow, BioScience Properties, Sterling Bay, Healthpeak, BioMed, and ARE. These firms are adapting with thoughtful repositioning and delivering product that aligns with where tenant demand is today. In the near term, we expect continued headwinds. Commodity office space will face pressure on rents and absorption, while high-end life science campuses with strong sponsorship will be better positioned to attract demand. We expect Life Science to rebound in the next 12 to 18 months as capital markets settle and merger/acquisition (M&A) activity returns. Distressed office sales may continue as debt maturities …
— By Will Moss of MMG Real Estate Advisors — After a turbulent stretch marked by oversupply and softening rents, Salt Lake City’s multifamily market is showing signs of stabilization in early 2025. Demand is returning, rent declines are easing and investor confidence is on the rise, all pointing to a market that may have found its footing. “We’re not calling a full recovery just yet,” says Will Moss, sales agent at MMG Real Estate. “But what we’re seeing is a return to fundamentals, steady demand, measured construction and buyers who are ready to transact again.” In first-quarter 2025, net absorption reached 1,044 units, outpacing the 894 units delivered and marking the first time in over a year that demand exceeded new supply. Over the past 12 months, approximately 4,500 units were absorbed, well above the metro’s historical average. Demand Rebounds, But Challenges Linger Salt Lake City mirrors national trends where improved economic confidence and easing inflation have begun to unlock pent-up housing demand. Notably, demand has been strongest among mid-tier renters, though even luxury properties, despite being the main source of new supply, posted a 1.8 percent rent increase year-over-year. Still, rents overall declined 0.3 percent annually, continuing a …
— By Jason Koch and Adam Riddle of MMG Real Estate Advisors — espite recent challenges, the Denver multifamily market is showing clear signs of a comeback. With new supply beginning to taper off, demand accelerating, and investor confidence returning, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of renewed opportunity for multifamily owners and investors. Momentum Is Building Behind the Numbers After a year of downward pressure, Denver’s multifamily market is beginning to turn the corner. First-quarter 2025 recorded net absorption of 2,544 units, a 170 percent jump from the prior quarter indicating a surge of renter demand. Over the past 12 months, absorption reached 9,200 units, the highest total since 2021. MMG Managing Director Jason Koch notes, “Demand is back. Lease-ups are moving more quickly, especially for quality, well-located product. It’s clear that renters still want to be in Denver.” While average rent is down 3.4 percent year-over-year, the first quarterly uptick in nearly a year suggests the bottom may already be behind us. At $1,813, Denver remains one of the strongest-performing rental markets in the Mountain West, particularly in suburban pockets where new supply is limited. High-Quality Product Leading the Charge Much of the recent absorption has …
— By William (Bill) Froelich of Colliers — s of first-quarter 2025, Oahu’s industrial market remains one of the tightest in the nation — but signs of softening are emerging. Our 41.9 million square foot market reported a vacancy rate of 1.2 percent, the highest in over two years, up from 0.9 percent in fourth-quarter 2024 and a near-record low of 0.6 percent in third-quarter 2023. Net absorption was negative at -115,001 square feet in first-quarter 2025, marking the fifth quarter of negative net absorption in the last six. Despite this, direct weighted average asking base rents reached a new high of $1.56 per square foot per month, reflecting continued landlord leverage in a market with severely constrained supply. Industrial operating expenses also rose, averaging $0.54 per square foot monthly, pushing our gross rents over $2.00 per square foot. Raw Land Market: A Race to Buy Before It’s Gone In a typical year, Oahu absorbs 10 to 20 acres of raw industrial land. But in a short period between the end of 2021 and the first half of 2022, over 100 acres had traded, driven by high-profile acquisitions such as Amazon’s 50-acre purchase and Costco’s 45-acre site purchased for almost …
— By Anthony Johnson and A.J. Johnson of Pegasus Retail — Looking back on the market sentiment at the start of 2024, the mantra was “Survive ‘til 25.” Now, halfway through 2025, it’s clear that the record-breaking cap rate sales of 2021 and 2022 are firmly in the rearview. Speculative development is reserved for those with a generational outlook, and high interest rates are the new normal. While that may seem bleak, for those who’ve weathered the storm, it feels like a breath of fresh air. The market has reset. Seller and buyer expectations are realigning. Landlords and tenants are exploring new deals in a more stable environment. And smart developers are dusting off models and cautiously getting back to work. The construction hiatus of recent years has benefited owners of existing product. Tenants, fueled by Wall Street growth expectations, had to get creative. We now see many national retailers occupying second and third generation retail space that they’d historically passed in favor of shinier and newer projects. Many neighborhood centers that were 50 percent vacant at the onset of the pandemic are now close to fully leased. A surprising but welcome shift. This outcome, partly driven by the lack …
— By Liz Claire of Avison Young — The Las Vegas retail market continued its strong performance in fourth-quarter 2024. Vacancy rates declined to 5.3 percent, marking a 200-basis-point drop from the fourth quarter of 2020. Strong absorption rates and healthy rent increases highlight the market’s resilience, even as growth has moderated since its peak in first-quarter 2021. Vacancy Declines and Strong Absorption Las Vegas experienced a significant increase in positive retail space absorption in fourth-quarter 2024, following eight quarters of minimal movement, with a total of 619,000 square feet absorbed. This surge was primarily driven by major developments, including the completion of the 500,000-square-foot BLVD retail project, which saw strong pre-leasing activity from prominent tenants like Adidas, H&M, Lululemon and In-N-Out Burger. Sustained high demand lowered the vacancy rate by 40 basis points from the previous quarter, further solidifying Las Vegas as a leading retail market. Retail Rents and Growth Trends Market-wide retail asking rents averaged $35.20 per square foot, with rents outside the high-priced resort corridor averaging $29.08 per square foot. Year over year, rents increased by 5.8 percent, significantly outpacing the national average rent growth of 3 percent. This steady rent appreciation demonstrates continued demand for retail space in …
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