Western Market Reports

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— By Anthony Johnson, AJ Johnson and Chris Fiello, Pegasus Group — New Mexico is no different than the rest of the nation and is not immune to some of the same symptoms that are taxing the national retail market. However, New Mexico retail is also showing signs of resilience as it reshapes itself and finds ways to weather the storms of high interest rates, major brand closures, economic uncertainty and crime.  As of now, the big issue is in the theft and resale of retail goods. Indeed, the problem of brazen theft — which is seen in countless cites in the nation — has led New Mexico Gov. Lujan Grisham to announce the revival of the Governor’s Organized Crime Prevention Commission. The hopes are to crackdown on this behavior, which is having a detrimental impact on the bottom line for New Mexico businesses, especially small ones. This onslaught of petty shoplifting to organized sprees of large-scale theft has caused retailers large and small to exit locations. Target, for example, announced in May that it was preparing for a loss of half a billion dollars this year because of rising theft.  In 2023, New Mexico saw multiple store closures, including several …

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— By Chad O’Connor, Executive Managing Director, Capital Markets, Marcus & Millichap Capital Corp. — Financing continues to be challenging for multifamily, whether in San Diego County or elsewhere. We have noticed a general shift in the market where the usual players are moving to the sidelines, thereby allowing new developers to enter the field. Many of the new developers do not have a track record that encourages a lender to underwrite a transaction. The more seasoned developers are focused on smaller developments with a higher probability of securing financing. The redirection to smaller developers in San Diego has directly impacted the institutional market.  Despite this, we are still financing a lot of deals and capital is, indeed, available. Having proprietary programs in the market — especially on the bridge side of things — continues to keep us both busy and adding value for our clients. The lack of go-to lenders in the market is driving us to forge new relationships with growing lenders, building those connections, and paving way for future opportunities.   Timing is a crucial variable when securing financing. Locking in the most favorable interest rates and moving swiftly through the closing process is very important in dynamic …

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— By John Ransom, Senior Vice President and Principal, Colliers — Albuquerque MSA office users continue to closely evaluate real estate decisions post-pandemic. The leasing trend is pivoting toward quality properties with landlords upgrading their building systems, security and amenity offerings. Tenant improvement costs are central to lease negotiations, so matching a tenant with space that requires the least amount of renovations to meet their needs is critical for both the tenant and the landlord to make a deal. In any event, tenants often have to share in the TI costs with upfront capital or amortizing a portion of the construction expense into the rental rate. This leads to longer lease terms and additional lease securitization requirements. Beneficial occupancy and other creative incentives are also being offered by landlords in lieu of additional tenant improvement dollars. Companies looking to downsize are considering a trade up in building/space quality. The upgrade has little impact to overall real estate expense, while improving the working conditions for their employees and ability to recruit in a competitive hiring climate. The office vacancy rate has steadily decreased to about 12 percent from a high of 20 percent five years ago. The bulk of vacancies are …

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— By Reg Kobzi, Senior Vice President, CBRE — Despite economic headwinds and uncertainty, there remains a positive sentiment within the San Diego retail market due to the historically low vacancies that continue to persist quarter over quarter. Inflation across consumer categories erodes spending power and challenges the retail landscape, as well as the greater economy. Landlords proactively track consumer spending and tenant resilience to mitigate risk. Inflation has proven stubbornly high, but it is predicted to decline over the coming months as the economy cools. CBRE believes the rate hiking cycle is nearing an end, and the Feds should start to cut rates by the end of the year. Despite the economic challenges, San Diego is healthy as its unemployment rate has remained relatively steady and seen significantly less expansion than at the state and national levels. June is the 35th consecutive month that unemployment in San Diego was below the state norm and the 12th straight month below the U.S. average. San Diego retail vacancy stabilized at the beginning of 2023, mirroring the rate from the last quarter of 2022 of 4.9 percent. Since vacancy rates are indicators of the market’s overall health, this stabilization is a valuable …

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— By Will Strong, Executive Vice Chair, Industrial Capital Markets, Cushman & Wakefield — Albuquerque has emerged as a vibrant hub for industrial development, showcasing a thriving economy and a favorable business climate. With its strategic location, robust infrastructure and supportive policies, the city has become an attractive destination for ecommerce and logistics companies seeking growth and expansion. Situated in the heart of the Southwest, Albuquerque enjoys a prime location that serves as a gateway to various markets. It is conveniently connected to major transportation networks, including interstates 25 and 40, making it accessible for shipping goods across the region. The city is served by the Albuquerque International Sunport, facilitating efficientair freight and business travel. The market’s availability of reliable utilities, such as water, electricity and high-speed internet, further strengthens the city’s industrial ecosystem. The Albuquerque industrial market grew more than 300,000 square feet in the past year. Demand has been strong enough to continually outpace deliveries, enabling vacancies to tighten below the historical average, according to CoStar. Vacancies have fallen to just 2.4 percent, well below the national average of 4.5 percent.  Albuquerque has a diversified base of industries, led by aerospace, high-tech manufacturing, distribution and logistics, technology and …

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— By James Hall, ABI Multifamily — It’s been a tumultuous year for global capital markets and asset prices, which have had to contend with a broad array of geopolitical and economic headwinds. The Las Vegas multifamily market — while it remains demographically sound — is dealing with inflationary-based pricing concerns and fundamental characteristics dampening investor appetite.Amongst all the noise and negatively skewed fundamentals, Las Vegas’ economy continues to grow, with tourism surpassing pre-pandemic levels this quarter. Harry Reid Airport reported the highest recorded number of passengers in February, indicating that the market continues to benefit from a surge in post-pandemic domestic tourism.A report released by the Federal Funds Information for States ranked Nevada as first in the nation for economic growth and momentum last year. The measurement considers a wide array of key economic and demographic indicators, including population, personal income and employment growth.While California continues to reel from a declining population, both Nevada and Arizona are benefiting from a surge in net-migration. The population of Las Vegas is expected to double by 2060, which would add an additional 2 million residents to the MSA, per Woods and Poole Economics..Las Vegas residents have a much higher propensity to rent …

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— By Jerry Doty, Senior Vice President, Colliers — Las Vegas was once known only for its flashy casinos and luxurious hotels, but over the past several years, it has become a growing distribution hub for the entire West Coast. Las Vegas is situated at the intersection of several major highways, making it an ideal location for businesses that need to move goods quickly and efficiently.  The city’s proximity to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach also make it a gateway for goods entering and leaving the United States. Our industrial market has had an epic rise in recent years, and up until the recent economic shake-up with rising interest rates and uncertainty in the capital markets, there was no end in sight. We continue to ask ourselves if 2023 will be the year things finally slow down or, even worse, take a step back.  First, the good news. One of the most striking statistics about the Las Vegas industrial market is the extremely low vacancy rate. Despite delivering about 8.5 million square feet over the previous five quarters, we still sit at a near record-low overall vacancy of 1.5 percent for the first quarter of 2023. Even …

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One word comes to mind when you pair Los Angeles and real estate: expensive. But creating a premier space can attract top-notch tenants, which then brings in the nearby clientele that can afford to live, work and play in, well, LA. Of course, tourists are enthusiastic spenders as well. Price tags and calories don’t count when you’re on vacation, after all.  Way Out West Malibu-based developer, manager and sponsor Christina knows all about what it takes to cultivate a dynamic retail offering in Los Angeles. In uber-developed areas like this, it typically takes a tired or underachieving retail space in a prime location that can be made into something grand.  “Christina operates with a laser focus on investing only in the ultra-prime submarkets of Los Angeles: Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Century City, Malibu, Santa Monica, Westwood, West Hollywood and Venice/Silicon Beach,” says Lawrence “Larry” Taylor, founder and CEO of Christina. “Redevelopment opportunities in these submarkets, which have limited inventory of pedestrian-oriented retail streets, are rarely available.” Given their scarce availability, the 46-year-old firm’s strategy has been to establish and maintain relationships with property owners in these markets.  “Then, when disposition opportunities present themselves due to life changes, estate planning or similar reasons, …

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— By Todd Manning, Managing Broker, NAI Vegas, and Maria Herman, Senior Vice President, Retail Division, NAI Vegas — The Las Vegas retail market continues to perform well into 2023 despite a few headwinds (and headlines) dogging the industry. The success is due in part to Las Vegas continuing to experience strong growth coming out of the pandemic years. For example, visitor volume to Las Vegas reached more than 3 million people in February 2023, which was up 17.8 percent year over year, but was still down 3.4 percent from February 2019. Speaking of performing well, Las Vegas’ retail vacancy rate has been holding steady at around 5.2 percent, just slightly lower than it was a year ago. It is also the market’s lowest retail vacancy rate in over 15 years. Rent growth is slowing, however, and is down from the 10.4 percent gains of one year ago. Rent growth has been another bright spot for Las Vegas retail landlords as rates continue to increase at 7.7 percent year over year. Rent growth is slowing, however, and is down from the 10.4 percent gains from a year ago. Not surprisingly, the investment market for commercial property, retail included, has experienced …

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— By Evan Jurgensen, Senior Vice President, Lee & Associates Los Angeles – Downtown — As the pandemic recedes, the hospitality and food and beverage industries in downtown Los Angeles are rebounding, driven in part by the return of venue entertainment and conferences. The number of visitors to the area has climbed back to within 10 percent of pre-pandemic levels and now sits at 10 million people per month. Consequently, there has been an influx of new restaurants, venues and breweries in the region.  However, as overall occupancy levels in the market remain in flux, businesses are becoming mindful of how they utilize their spaces to achieve a triple bottom line impact that benefits not only the asset owner, but also the consumer and community at large for the long run. Increased Investment in Outdoor Space  Outdoor dining saved many restaurants during the pandemic and continues to have great appeal in the present day. In addition to being a healthier option for diners, outdoor seating allows restaurants to handle more customers at once and increase profitability.  Los Angeles city officials created a streamlined process known as the L.A. Al Fresco program in May 2020, which allowed more than 2,500 restaurants and …

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