— By Reg Kobzi, Senior Vice President, CBRE — Despite economic headwinds and uncertainty, there remains a positive sentiment within the San Diego retail market due to the historically low vacancies that continue to persist quarter over quarter. Inflation across consumer categories erodes spending power and challenges the retail landscape, as well as the greater economy. Landlords proactively track consumer spending and tenant resilience to mitigate risk. Inflation has proven stubbornly high, but it is predicted to decline over the coming months as the economy cools. CBRE believes the rate hiking cycle is nearing an end, and the Feds should start to cut rates by the end of the year. Despite the economic challenges, San Diego is healthy as its unemployment rate has remained relatively steady and seen significantly less expansion than at the state and national levels. June is the 35th consecutive month that unemployment in San Diego was below the state norm and the 12th straight month below the U.S. average. San Diego retail vacancy stabilized at the beginning of 2023, mirroring the rate from the last quarter of 2022 of 4.9 percent. Since vacancy rates are indicators of the market’s overall health, this stabilization is a valuable …
Western Market Reports
— By Will Strong, Executive Vice Chair, Industrial Capital Markets, Cushman & Wakefield — Albuquerque has emerged as a vibrant hub for industrial development, showcasing a thriving economy and a favorable business climate. With its strategic location, robust infrastructure and supportive policies, the city has become an attractive destination for ecommerce and logistics companies seeking growth and expansion. Situated in the heart of the Southwest, Albuquerque enjoys a prime location that serves as a gateway to various markets. It is conveniently connected to major transportation networks, including interstates 25 and 40, making it accessible for shipping goods across the region. The city is served by the Albuquerque International Sunport, facilitating efficientair freight and business travel. The market’s availability of reliable utilities, such as water, electricity and high-speed internet, further strengthens the city’s industrial ecosystem. The Albuquerque industrial market grew more than 300,000 square feet in the past year. Demand has been strong enough to continually outpace deliveries, enabling vacancies to tighten below the historical average, according to CoStar. Vacancies have fallen to just 2.4 percent, well below the national average of 4.5 percent. Albuquerque has a diversified base of industries, led by aerospace, high-tech manufacturing, distribution and logistics, technology and …
— By James Hall, ABI Multifamily — It’s been a tumultuous year for global capital markets and asset prices, which have had to contend with a broad array of geopolitical and economic headwinds. The Las Vegas multifamily market — while it remains demographically sound — is dealing with inflationary-based pricing concerns and fundamental characteristics dampening investor appetite.Amongst all the noise and negatively skewed fundamentals, Las Vegas’ economy continues to grow, with tourism surpassing pre-pandemic levels this quarter. Harry Reid Airport reported the highest recorded number of passengers in February, indicating that the market continues to benefit from a surge in post-pandemic domestic tourism.A report released by the Federal Funds Information for States ranked Nevada as first in the nation for economic growth and momentum last year. The measurement considers a wide array of key economic and demographic indicators, including population, personal income and employment growth.While California continues to reel from a declining population, both Nevada and Arizona are benefiting from a surge in net-migration. The population of Las Vegas is expected to double by 2060, which would add an additional 2 million residents to the MSA, per Woods and Poole Economics..Las Vegas residents have a much higher propensity to rent …
— By Jerry Doty, Senior Vice President, Colliers — Las Vegas was once known only for its flashy casinos and luxurious hotels, but over the past several years, it has become a growing distribution hub for the entire West Coast. Las Vegas is situated at the intersection of several major highways, making it an ideal location for businesses that need to move goods quickly and efficiently. The city’s proximity to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach also make it a gateway for goods entering and leaving the United States. Our industrial market has had an epic rise in recent years, and up until the recent economic shake-up with rising interest rates and uncertainty in the capital markets, there was no end in sight. We continue to ask ourselves if 2023 will be the year things finally slow down or, even worse, take a step back. First, the good news. One of the most striking statistics about the Las Vegas industrial market is the extremely low vacancy rate. Despite delivering about 8.5 million square feet over the previous five quarters, we still sit at a near record-low overall vacancy of 1.5 percent for the first quarter of 2023. Even …
One word comes to mind when you pair Los Angeles and real estate: expensive. But creating a premier space can attract top-notch tenants, which then brings in the nearby clientele that can afford to live, work and play in, well, LA. Of course, tourists are enthusiastic spenders as well. Price tags and calories don’t count when you’re on vacation, after all. Way Out West Malibu-based developer, manager and sponsor Christina knows all about what it takes to cultivate a dynamic retail offering in Los Angeles. In uber-developed areas like this, it typically takes a tired or underachieving retail space in a prime location that can be made into something grand. “Christina operates with a laser focus on investing only in the ultra-prime submarkets of Los Angeles: Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Century City, Malibu, Santa Monica, Westwood, West Hollywood and Venice/Silicon Beach,” says Lawrence “Larry” Taylor, founder and CEO of Christina. “Redevelopment opportunities in these submarkets, which have limited inventory of pedestrian-oriented retail streets, are rarely available.” Given their scarce availability, the 46-year-old firm’s strategy has been to establish and maintain relationships with property owners in these markets. “Then, when disposition opportunities present themselves due to life changes, estate planning or similar reasons, …
— By Todd Manning, Managing Broker, NAI Vegas, and Maria Herman, Senior Vice President, Retail Division, NAI Vegas — The Las Vegas retail market continues to perform well into 2023 despite a few headwinds (and headlines) dogging the industry. The success is due in part to Las Vegas continuing to experience strong growth coming out of the pandemic years. For example, visitor volume to Las Vegas reached more than 3 million people in February 2023, which was up 17.8 percent year over year, but was still down 3.4 percent from February 2019. Speaking of performing well, Las Vegas’ retail vacancy rate has been holding steady at around 5.2 percent, just slightly lower than it was a year ago. It is also the market’s lowest retail vacancy rate in over 15 years. Rent growth is slowing, however, and is down from the 10.4 percent gains of one year ago. Rent growth has been another bright spot for Las Vegas retail landlords as rates continue to increase at 7.7 percent year over year. Rent growth is slowing, however, and is down from the 10.4 percent gains from a year ago. Not surprisingly, the investment market for commercial property, retail included, has experienced …
— By Evan Jurgensen, Senior Vice President, Lee & Associates Los Angeles – Downtown — As the pandemic recedes, the hospitality and food and beverage industries in downtown Los Angeles are rebounding, driven in part by the return of venue entertainment and conferences. The number of visitors to the area has climbed back to within 10 percent of pre-pandemic levels and now sits at 10 million people per month. Consequently, there has been an influx of new restaurants, venues and breweries in the region. However, as overall occupancy levels in the market remain in flux, businesses are becoming mindful of how they utilize their spaces to achieve a triple bottom line impact that benefits not only the asset owner, but also the consumer and community at large for the long run. Increased Investment in Outdoor Space Outdoor dining saved many restaurants during the pandemic and continues to have great appeal in the present day. In addition to being a healthier option for diners, outdoor seating allows restaurants to handle more customers at once and increase profitability. Los Angeles city officials created a streamlined process known as the L.A. Al Fresco program in May 2020, which allowed more than 2,500 restaurants and …
— By Dan Palmeri, Senior Vice President, CBRE — As Las Vegas reinvents itself as the sports and entertainment capital of the world — while still maintaining the fun factor it has always been known for — the corporate world continues to look at Southern Nevada as a legitimate place to do business. The city saw a record number of Class A deliveries in 2022 and has shown no signs of slowing down through 2023. This is a reflection of the demand for new, functional and relevant office space. Like most markets, location and quality of buildings are the main drivers for employers as they focus on employee happiness and retention. As Las Vegas has grown from a small desert town in the ‘70s and ‘80s with 505,000 residents in 1983, to a market of more than 2.3 million residents today, the natural geographical growth outward has hit a point where the city has reached the Valley’s boundaries in all directions. What was once a five- to 10-minute commute to the center of town has now become a 20- to 30-minute commute for the mass of suburban dwellers. This has organically led to a focus on a 25-mile stretch from …
Ryan Desmond, partner, Western Retail Advisors in Phoenix Metro Phoenix’s population grew faster than any other major U.S. city between 2010 and 2020. By 2021, the Valley’s 1.48 percent population growth continued to far exceed the country’s .01 percent growth — the slowest annual growth rate in our nation’s history. For a community that has historically been criticized as being over-retailed on a per-capita basis, this has injected tremendous strength into the local retail market. Today, Phoenix ranks as a hotspot among U.S. cities for retail absorption. According to CoStar, Phoenix had absorbed 4.1 million square feet of retail space year over year — the strongest absorption since the start of the Great Recession — by the start of the second quarter in 2023. This reduced the market’s overall vacancy rate to 5 percent. This is impressive, but it doesn’t reflect the increased gap between demand for Class A product and all other retail classes. Much like the flight to quality happening in the office sector, tenants looking for retail space in metro Phoenix want excellence: high-traffic locations in a growth submarket with compelling demographics. As a result, we have seen more metro Phoenix Class A retail properties reach full …
— By Kimberly Stepp, Principal, Stepp Commercial Group — Los Angeles’ Westside apartment market is poised to see a robust pipeline of transactions in 2023. Long-time owners have been increasingly seeking to trade into out-of-state assets, while 1031 investors or those looking to pay all cash seek to take advantage of opportunities in a high interest rate environment. Last year, Stepp Commercial Group saw a significant number of transactions with LA-area sellers who were frustrated with rent control and other problematic apartment legislation. They were looking to trade into states like Arizona, Florida and Texas because they provide a stronger ROI over the long-term and offer fewer landlord restrictions. We see that trend continuing into 2023 as owners want to enjoy a passive income as they achieve their individual investment goals and objectives. Additionally, while Measure ULA (“the mansion tax”) went into effect on April 1 — and impacts only homes and apartment complexes sold within the City of Los Angeles at $5 million or more — the overall sentiment has been sour from owners throughout the Greater LA area. They are justifiably concerned that similar legislation will soon be coming to their city, on top of other landlord-unfriendly restrictions …