Western Market Reports

San Bernardino Multifamily Market Slows But Market Fundamentals Remain Strong

by Jeff Shaw December 22, 2022

By Guy Enriquez, Vice President, NAI Capital The market for small- to medium-sized multifamily buildings ranging from 10 to 100 units in the City of San Bernardino has experienced a severe downturn in sales transactions recently. This was caused by the rapid increase in interest rates and a disconnect between buyers and sellers on pricing expectations. Cap rates on sales completed in the third quarter of 2022 show an increase of about 80 basis points year over year to 5.5 percent in the Inland Empire. Third-quarter 2022 sales volume in the Inland Empire fell to 15 transactions totaling $54 million. The area has been averaging 37 transactions totaling $180 million on a quarterly basis over the past four quarters. This quarter, the City of San Bernardino saw one sales transaction in this segment of the market, indicating the lack of deal volume. While rising interest rates caused a collapse of sales volume, combined with other general economic factors, San Bernardino’s rental market has remained very strong. The city’s overall multifamily physical vacancy rate has stood at 3.2 percent throughout 2022. The average rent for a one-bedroom unit increased from $949 to $966 per unit during the first three quarters of …

December 22, 2022

Affordable Housing Market Reports Multifamily Washington Western Western Market Reports

Multifamily Deals, Development Slow in Seattle After Breakneck Run

by Jeff Shaw December 16, 2022

It’s been quite the run for Seattle. Like many secondary markets out West, the Emerald City was a pandemic darling, racking up loads of new residents and workers over the past few years. Seattle-area employers added more than 102,600 workers in 2021 alone, according to Marcus & Millichap’s second-quarter market report, which predicts the area will add another 85,000 workers by year’s end. The report also forecasts Seattle’s population will increase by more than 220,000 residents over the next five years. All this activity has led to a bull run for multifamily owners, investors and developers. Net absorption in Seattle’s central business district surpassed the 5,000-unit mark for the first time on record last year, while rents have risen by 14 percent year over year. Demand was so fierce that all 20 of the metro’s submarkets recorded vacancy compression over the past four quarters, resulting in an average 2.8 percent vacancy rate, according to Marcus & Millichap. This is the lowest rate in two decades. Nearly 9,000 units — representing 1.9 percent of the supply — were added over the 12-month period that ended in March, with another 25,000 units still under construction at the end of the second quarter. …

December 16, 2022

Industrial Market Reports Nevada Western Western Market Reports

Northern Nevada Industrial Sector Remains Solid Despite Economic Slowdowns

by Jeff Shaw December 16, 2022

By Nick Knecht, Senior Advisor, Industrial, Dickson Commercial Group The vibrancy and growth of the Reno-Sparks industrial market has solidified the region’s position as a premier distribution hub of the Western U.S. — even as we head into what is expected to be a nationwide economic slowdown in the near term. The third quarter continued the trend of positive net absorption of 469,970 square feet. This occurred even with four new construction deliveries totaling 1.7 million square feet, 98 percent of which was spoken for upon completion. This momentum is expected to continue to some degree, as our team is actively negotiating RFPs on each of our speculative big box listings, with space requirement inquiries coming in at a steady pace. Alongside this positive activity, our market has been affected by the economic turmoil that has started to take shape over the past two quarters, with similar trends discussed nationwide. A changing debt market has produced several price adjustments mid-transaction for buyers to stay within their underwriting thresholds. The number of developers aggressively acquiring land at a feverish pace has decreased as they face a higher cost of capital and tamp down rent growth assumptions to more reasonable levels. There …

December 16, 2022

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Despite a Slowdown, San Bernardino’s Industrial Outlook Remains Strong

by Jeff Shaw December 13, 2022

By Rick John, Executive Vice President, Ontario Branch Manager, DAUM Commercial The San Bernardino industrial market is experiencing strong market fundamentals as it’s home to 18 percent of the Inland Empire East’s nearly 245 million square feet of industrial space. The city also commands one of the highest prices per square foot across the market, exceeding $300. Although vacancy rates for the Inland Empire East increased for the first time since the pandemic – jumping 14 basis points and ending at 1.1 percent for the third quarter – overall vacancy in San Bernardino remains historically low. In fact, it’s among the lowest in the region at 0.24 percent. This incremental increase in vacancies was primarily seen among smaller buildings, while larger buildings of 500,000 square feet or more continue to be in short supply as vacancy remains near zero. Consistent low vacancy and competition for space are encouraging large companies to pre-lease new developments in the construction pipeline. This has helped bring gross leasing activity to near pre-pandemic levels. In September, Shein signed the largest lease within the Riverside-San Bernardino metro for the quarter with plans to open a 1.8-million-square-foot distribution center that’s currently under development in Cherry Valley. Due …

December 13, 2022

Market Reports Nevada Office Western Western Market Reports

Office Vacancy Declines in Reno as Sublease Availability is on the Rise

by Jeff Shaw December 9, 2022

By Melissa Molyneaux, Executive Vice President, Colliers Northern Nevada’s office market has continued to post strong fundamentals this year. Positive tenant demand has improved vacancy in recent quarters, though an uptick in available sublease space could impact market-wide vacancy in the future. The Reno-Sparks region has also seen a handful of new speculative office construction starts that will add trophy office and medical office space to the downtown and South Meadows submarkets. Strong economic recovery has been evident this year as Nevada reached a new employment peak of nearly 1.5 million jobs in June. Washoe County’s population has grown an impressive 17.1 percent since 2010, to 500,000 people. A study by Woods and Poole Economics estimates the area will reach 764,000 people by 2060. Market-wide vacancy rates dropped to 10.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022, down 200 basis points year over year. Downtown vacancy fell 310 basis points to 11.7 percent, while suburban vacancy fell 180 basis points to 10.3 percent in the same period. Vacancy has continued to improve since the onset of the pandemic, though the Reno area has started to see an increase in available sublease space hitting the market. About one quarter of all …

December 9, 2022

California Market Reports Retail Western Western Market Reports

San Bernardino’s Retail Leasing Market Thrives

by Jeff Shaw December 7, 2022

By Ryan Gast, Vice President, Ontario/Inland Empire, CBRE We are currently seeing a very strong leasing market in San Bernardino County, which is mostly driven by the amount of new housing developments in the market and the lack of new retail product being built. Tenants are hungry for the top-tier shopping centers, which has driven the vacancy rates down and rents up in a market where there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the air. Some of the most active retail categories include the fast feeders (QSRs), gas stations and car wash groups. Discount retailers also hold great appeal, particularly due to inflation. The market has also seen an increase in activity from fitness users who stopped dead in their tracks during 2020 and 2021 due to COVID. As active retailers go, Stater Bros, Hobby Lobby, Burlington, 99 Ranch Market, Ross and Planet Fitness have all recently inked deals in the area. Sprouts, Quick Quack, Shell, Raising Cane’s and Dutch Bros Coffee also remain active. Many of these retailers are seeking high-growth areas where there has been an influx of residential development nearby. In terms of developers, Lewis Retail, Wood Investments and Rich Development are some of the …

December 7, 2022

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

Office Vacancy Falls as San Bernardino Hopes to Return to Former Glory

by Jeff Shaw December 1, 2022

By Steve Roppel, Senior Vice President, Allied Commercial Real Estate Encompassing 62 square miles, San Bernardino is the governmental seat of San Bernardino County, the largest county in the world at more than 21,000 square miles. About 86,000 people alone work within the city, per the 2020 Census. The largest industries are retail (12,280 people), transportation and warehousing (11,164 people) and health (9,603 people). Of the six largest office buildings, only one is occupied by traditional multiple commercial tenants. The others are occupied by the county, city, courts, non-profits and the University of Loma Linda. The only large office building presently proposed is a county office building of 307,000 square feet. San Bernardino was historically a vibrant metropolitan whose image has become tarnished over the years. It is famous for its affiliation with Route 66, which runs through the city and allowed many people to emigrate to the Golden State. The first original McDonald’s restaurant – now a museum – was opened in San Bernardino in 1940. To restore the former luster and recognize the potential for San Bernardino, local governments have pulled together on several fronts. Multiple recent infrastructure improvements and redevelopments were completed and planned for San Bernardino, …

December 1, 2022

Affordable Housing Colorado Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

Denver Leads on New Affordable Housing Requirements

by Jeff Shaw November 23, 2022

Like many communities across the West, affordable housing is a top issue in Denver. Monthly rent in Denver is now around $2,005, according to Zillow’s June 2022 data. This is up 20.4 percent since June 2019. The city is trying to do something about the lack of affordability. It approved the Expanding Housing Affordability Policy (EHA) this June, which overhauled Denver’s affordable housing requirements for new development. EHA was allowed after the 2021 passage of a Colorado statute, HB21-1117, which overturned a Colorado Supreme Court case commonly known as the Telluride decision. HB21-1117 expanded the ability of local Colorado governments to require inclusion of income-restricted units within new rental housing — something that had previously been prohibited in Colorado. While Denver has led within the state with EHA, other municipalities in Colorado, such as Littleton and Aspen, are beginning to consider new affordable housing policies in response to HB21-1117. In Denver, EHA primarily affects multifamily projects of 10 or more units. Those projects must proceed under EHA unless they submitted a concept site plan by June 30, 2022, and achieve final site development plan approval by Aug. 30, 2023. Non-residential projects and residential projects of nine or fewer units may …

November 23, 2022

Market Reports Multifamily Washington Western Western Market Reports

Seattle Metro Multifamily Market — It’s a Supply Thing

by Jeff Shaw November 18, 2022

By Brian O’Connor, Executive Director, Valuation & Advisory, Cushman & Wakefield The Seattle Metro apartment market has been surprisingly resilient. The market quickly bounced back from the COVID downturn at a robust clip and has continued moving at a healthy pace. During the first six months of 2022, metro Seattle absorbed more than 12,600 units. That already surpasses a typical full year of demand by several thousand units. From January 2022 through June, the market absorbed 3,779 newly constructed units — a respectable level. If you also factor in the decline in existing units, then the market absorbed another 8,886 units. That tells us that the supply of new units was too low…or demand was much stronger than we expected. The market had rebounded to a metro-wide vacancy rate of only 1.33 percent at mid-year 2022, an astoundingly low level. From year-end 2021 to June 2022, overall apartment vacancies declined from 3 percent to 1.33 percent. We do, however, expect vacancies to begin increasing slightly. These rates typically see an uptick as we head into winter. Rent growth also slows during this time. We expect to see the metro-wide vacancy rate start to rise just a bit by year-end 2022, to …

November 18, 2022

Colorado Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

The Work-From-Home Trend Continues to Plague Denver

by Jeff Shaw November 11, 2022

By David Gagliano, Senior Vice President and Principal, Fuller Real Estate Leasing trends in the metro Denver office market are continuing their slow progression downward. Inquiries from tenants looking to lease office product is down 10 percent from 2021. Concurrently, we have seen an uptick in smaller office users who are looking for space in lieu of their home office. Landlords have been quick to concede to tenants, incentivizing them with extensive quantifiable tenant improvements and lease rates lower than their competition. Anecdotally, it becomes obvious with nearly every prospective tenant that they are viewing multiple properties. Not only are they viewing several properties, but many have several options within the exact vicinity of the subject property. This trend makes it even more critical for landlords to have the best representation from their brokers. This market instability also speaks to the favor landlords are giving to current tenants upon lease renewal, as capturing occupancy prior to vacating becomes vital. With current and most likely future increases in interest rates, we will see a dip in activity in owner-user purchases that should lead to a rise in leasing activity. The suburban markets are still seeing a surge in migration from the downtown …

November 11, 2022

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