By Bob Basen, Executive Vice President, Coldwell Banker Commercial Real Estate Solutions The High Desert’s multifamily market remained surprisingly strong during the pandemic. Historic low vacancies in the High Desert apartment market, combined with low cap rates in Los Angeles and Orange counties, have made this market a favorite for “down the hill” investors. With the exception of three substantial multifamily projects in Hesperia, there has been no real apartment development in the High Desert since the mid-2000s. The recently completed The Villas, a 96-unit, age-restricted project developed by Eagle Hesperia 55 LP, has had phenomenal success with a waiting list prior to completion. With the success of this project, there will be a second phase containing another 96 units. Frontier Homes’ Las Casitas Apartment Homes and the 200-unit West Main Villas, developed by Bruno Mancinelli, were also very successful with two-bedroom apartments renting for more than $1,600 per month. This is a number that was unheard of prior to these projects. With those kinds of rents, we can and should expect to see increased apartment development in the High Desert. Hesperia has decreased its development impact fees, which may have spurred the above-mentioned developments within that city. There are currently …
Western Market Reports
By Joseph W. Brady, President, Bradco Cos. The High Desert portion of San Bernardino County, also known as the Mojave River Valley, is anticipating exceptional industrial development growth in the upcoming years as the balance of the Inland Empire builds out and has no significant land to further develop. The Mojave River Valley region contains more than 22 million square feet of industrial space. The City of Hesperia has recently experienced a mass grading project — probably the largest grading project in the High Desert’s history. Covington Capital is mass grading 232 acres where it intends to build a 3.5-million-square-foot industrial complex. The first building (1,055,360 square feet) will be developed for Modway. It will increase the major furniture distributor’s ability to serve regional and national distribution requirements from its current 310,555-square-foot facility in Fontana. The 60-acre site is being developed by Exeter Property Group. Big Lots opened its new distribution center in north/east Apple Valley in late 2019. This 1.3-million-square-foot facility sits just south of Walmart’s distribution center. Brightline West has also acquired property in north Apple Valley near Dale Evans Parkway for a high-speed rail station that will move passengers from Southern California to Las Vegas in 90 minutes at speeds …
By Tory Glossip, Managing Director, Colliers Puget Sound has 553,566 square feet of retail under construction, comprising 0.4 percent of existing inventory. The market dynamic will keep retail property values in the Pacific Northwest higher than most U.S. markets that are overbuilt. Puget Sound’s retail market posts rents 30 percent above the national average at $20.71 per square foot. Pricing is traditionally a function of supply and demand. In the retail world, that demand relies partially on income. The most expensive markets to lease retail space also happen to have the highest incomes…by far. Despite ideas in some circles that retail is dead, physical footprints will continue to be an important part of the retail landscape, although less so in downtown areas until workers return to the office. Most consumers have retreated to submarkets, leaving retailers to explore alternative options to use their property more effectively. Brands are expanding their reach with small-format stores and cross-promoting their products and services in showrooms. Many are leveraging smaller footprints into touch-and-feel locations that seamlessly blend online browsing and in-store purchasing. The shopping mall as we know it will have a different look and feel post-COVID. With big box retail reallocating existing space into localized …
Strong Market Fundamentals, Ecommerce Expansion Fueled Seattle’s Industrial Market in 2020
by Jeff Shaw
By Kaden Eichmeier, Director, JLL Capital Markets Strong economic fundamentals bolstered market dynamics in the Puget Sound over the past 12 months. This market is driven in part by significant amounts of capital targeting industrial, the availability of low-cost debt and strong tenant demand. There were 125 industrial transactions totaling nearly $1.9 billion closed last year, and the outlook for 2021 looks even brighter. Competition has stiffened through the first quarter of 2021. Investors have increased allocation requirements, and the list of new entrants targeting the Seattle industrial market continues to expand. With growing demand, the core market is growing geographically as supply constraints push investors and developers further north and south. For example, Panattoni recently announced it will build a 2.1-million-square-foot, five-story warehouse for an ecommerce company on a 75-acre site just south of the Arlington Airport. Northpoint Development also announced the 4.1-million-square-foot Cascade Business Park in Arlington. To the south, Panattoni is also developing Big Freddy Logistics, a three-building park that will total 771,855 square feet, while Logistics Property Co. is developing the 352,801-square-foot Frederickson One speculative project. There is currently nearly 7.5 million square feet under construction. This includes 3.2 million square feet in Pierce County and …
By Dylan Simon, Kidder Mathews As we left 2020 behind, we collectively hoped that turning the calendar to 2021 would stem to tide of COVID and bring about a V-shaped economic recovery. Alas, we enter this spring with many of the same hold-over concerns from a very rocky 2020. Thankfully, stability is right around the corner! A comprehensive and broad recovery may not be immediately recognizable, but there are signs economic stability is imminent for the Seattle apartment market. Big Tech is Getting Back to Work Big Tech evacuated urban centers in March 2020, taking with it urban-dwelling apartment renters. Apartment rental rates across Seattle, San Francisco and New York City plummeted more than 30 percent in the ensuing months. Once these “occupiers” return, that light-switch will once again flip in the positive-growth position. Facebook announced in March that it is reopening its Seattle offices. Just as Big Tech was quick (and smart) to shut down in-office operations at the outset of COVID-19, it will act similarly quickly (and intelligently) in reopening its offices. Expect the reopening trend to spread throughout Big Tech in a coordinated and swift fashion as that industry tends to know it is more innovative and competitive …
By Peter Batschelet, Principal, Lee & Associates In a year of unknowns, hypotheticals and uncertainties, the Phoenix metropolitan area and Maricopa County were the complete opposite. In fact, 2020 was a record-setting year in this region’s industrial market for several reasons. For starters, there was nearly 14 million square feet of new construction delivered. This is twice as high as any year in the past decade and roughly equivalent to the deliveries from the past two years. In addition, Phoenix set record absorption numbers to the tune of, ironically, 14 million square feet. Meanwhile, vacancy rates have decreased to roughly 7.7 percent and rents continue to see moderate growth. There does not appear to be an end in sight to the impressive growth. There is an additional 15 million square feet currently under construction. This space is both speculative development and build-to-suit opportunities from household names like Merit Partners, Prologis, Trammell Crow Majestic Realty and others. Ecommerce sales represent roughly 15 percent of the national retail industry, which means there is plenty of capacity for additional investment and capital into the Greater Phoenix area based on our population and anticipated growth. There remains plenty of upside for the bulk …
By Drew Sanden, Senior Managing Director, Newmark The Inland Empire office market boasted very strong fundamentals heading into 2020. The vacancy rate across the 28.3 million-square-foot base was 9.5 percent, lease rates were reaching peak levels and developers were again exploring larger spec developments. Like many markets across the U.S., COVID-19 has greatly impacted the Inland Empire’s office market. Office usage, demand, absorption and leasing transactions are down year-over-year. Large back-office transaction volume has been the most impacted as companies struggle to manage the social distancing guidelines. With that said, the suburban nature of the Inland Empire has helped insulate the office market. The combination of affordable housing (relative to Southern California’s coastal communities) and remote work opportunities have strengthened the overall workforce. This pandemic has acted as an accelerator for the hub-and-spoke trend where companies have larger regional offices in CBDs like Los Angeles and Irvine, while maintaining smaller satellite offices in suburban markets. We’ve seen an influx of small satellite offices in Corona, Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga and Riverside. Demand for medical office building (MOB) leasing and sales has remained strong. This trend was highlighted with the pre-sale of two medical office buildings at the Rincon in Chino Hills, …
By Amy Ogden, Logic Commercial Real Estate This was an unprecedented year in a multitude of ways. Though the pandemic brought economic hardships — along with the world’s worst health crisis — it also opened our eyes to how quickly life can change overnight. Businesses reacted to the crisis as best and swiftly as they could to comply with state stay at home orders, capacity reductions, and the fear and panic that ensued. Little did we know that we would be desperately seeking toilet paper, cleaning supplies, and embracing online grocery shopping and food delivery with such intensity by early March. The aforementioned, in turn, created a domino effect as the pandemic became the catalyst for a boom in the industrial real estate sector. Ecommerce has grown more over the past year than it ever has. These occupiers have seen their five-year trajectory of forecasted retail sales occur in just six months. The rise of ecommerce has forever altered consumer buying behavior and expectations. With consumers now anticipating fast shipping and deliveries, there is now a strain on the traditional logistics and supply chain models. This has subsequently resulted in a heightened need for warehouse, fulfillment and distribution properties as …
By Cray Carlson, CBRE With 2020 coming to an end, we look back at a year of much uncertainty, confusion and unprecedented restrictions. Yet amidst all that, the Inland Empire multifamily market has been going steady, continuing to thrive in spite of some substantial drops in sales volumes. Total multifamily sales of eight units and larger in the Inland Empire were $2.5 billion in 2018 and $2.1 billion in 2019. That compares with only $1.09 billion in 2020, as of October. We expect total sales volumes in the area could ultimately show a reduction of up to 40 percent for the full year. So, how is the Inland Empire maintaining its title as one of the strongest apartment markets in the nation? Collections A recent housing and employment study examined the ability for renters to make their rent payments. The Inland Empire led the category of households caught up on those payments. Respondents also indicated a high confidence level in their ability to meet their future lease obligations. Among the 15 metros surveyed, the Inland Empire ranked second. Vacancy Rates Rent vacancies have decrease in the Inland Empire to as low as 3.7 percent as rent growth has risen 6.2 …
By Dan Palmeri, Senior Director, Tenant Advisory Group, Cushman & Wakefield As with most of the country, Las Vegas’ office market has been significantly impacted since COVID-19 restrictions started back in March. While many businesses have been allowed to operate at limited capacities, we’ve also seen many larger office users elect to work from home over the past nine months. This increase in work from home scenarios has naturally created a large increase in sublease availabilities in the market. Prior to March 17, 2020, we were tracking 24 subleases consisting of 555,000 square feet, with two of those spaces being 257,000 square feet and 61,000 square feet, or roughly 57 percent of the overall inventory. Since March, we’ve seen the number of availabilities increase to 70 with a total of more than 1.2 million square feet of space. This represents an increase of 118 percent. We’re tracking an additional 313,000 square feet of pending subleases that have yet to hit the market. This will bring the total to 78 options, with six of the availabilities being 50,000 square feet or larger. Large tenant activity was minimal over the past nine months. The most significant transaction was NYU Grossman School of …