The Portland industrial market continues to be strong despite softening from a few leading indicators. The overall market vacancy rate is 4.3 percent, which is up from 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, while absorption during this period was 832,000 square feet. Historical absorption during the current cycle has averaged 3.8 million square feet. Almost 5 million square feet came on line in 2018, 2 million of which was speculative space that was 85 percent available in July 2019. This impressive amount of growth expanded the existing overall market size by 2.2 percent. Top tenants have been Amazon’s fulfillment centers, which occupy 918,000 square feet in the Rivergate Industrial Park in North Portland and 857,000 square feet in Troutdale. Both facilities were developed by Trammell Crow. Amazon also signed a lease in Hillsboro in 2016 for 303,000 square feet of space that was developed by Majestic. A United States Postal Service processing and distribution facility moved from a confined, central city location into 818,000 square feet in the Airport Way industrial area in Northeast Portland. Other large users include third party logistics, retailers/wholesalers and local market distributors. Intel announced an additional 1.5-million-square-foot expansion of its existing 2.2 million …
As brokers, we are often asked our opinion on the local market. The topic seems to have garnered even more interest than normal as of late. There is a multitude of variables investors will point to as they attempt to define what is happening in the market. The new legislation coming down the pipeline has probably caused the biggest challenges to the local multifamily market. Nationally, there are a lot of people worried about a recession because of the inverted yield curve. However, a recession hasn’t occurred every time the curve has inverted. There is no crystal ball to look at and make our investment decisions, but I think the outlook for Portland is still rosy. What appears to be happening is we are going from a rising market to a more normalizing market. In a rising market, prices increase, buyer demand increases, velocity increases, yield spread narrows and inventory moves fast as investors speculate on the market. In a normalizing market, prices become more realistic for in-place yield, there are fewer buyers in the market, velocity drops and the buyer/seller gap widens, which causes assets to sit or not sell. This seems to be the case here in Portland …
Portland’s office market is experiencing strong growth as it continues to benefit from an influx of Bay Area and Seattle tenants moving into the city. This is due to the relatively affordable rental rates and positioning between the two booming tech hubs along the West Coast. The city is seeing an increase of large tech tenants making their home in Portland, starting with Intel, which is Portland’s largest employer. Other companies, such a Genentech, Google, Oracle, Salesforce and many others have also taken up tenancy in the Portland Metro area. Seattle-based Amazon recently leased 83,995 square feet in Portland’s newest Class A office building, Broadway Tower, while Amazon’s AWS Elemental division leased 101,000 square feet in the former Oregonian headquarters, which is adjacent to Broadway Tower. The office market continues to perform well with a vacancy rate of 7.3 percent, beating out the 10-year average of 8.65 percent. All of these new companies making their way to Portland are creating substantial job opportunities for Portland’s ever-growing population. Portland is home to several large industry-leading companies, such as Nike, Intel, Columbia Sportswear and Adidas, which attract workforce talent across the world. This has helped spur the growth of Portland’s economy, which …
The retail market in Portland remains competitive. Vacancy rates are staying low at 3.1 percent, compared to about 5.5 percent just five years ago, leading to healthy competition among tenants for space. Retailers and brands are thriving across the board in this market. We’re seeing food halls, outdoor apparel, athletic brands, brew pubs, schools, banks, value brands, homegrown food concepts and many franchise concepts entering or expanding. Competitive socializing and esport lounges are growing in popularity across the country, taking up about 32 percent of the leisure tenant market. Competitive socializing concepts like Voicebox and Punchbowl Social are quickly becoming some of the most popular leisure tenants in the Portland area. Live Nation has recently signed a lease for a new entertainment venue at Lloyd Center, which will soon offer more small-venue live entertainment options. Brands like Pendleton, Nike, Columbia Sports, Apple, Nordstrom, H&M and Zara have flagship stores in the downtown core. Patagonia, Anthropologie and a local favorite, the Mercantile, have all expanded their footprints taking prime real estate in the Portland CBD/West End. The desire for wellness and a balanced lifestyle has led to a boom in demand for retail space. Wellness tenants like medical clinics, dental offices …
Whether it’s existing properties, new development, redevelopment or a repositioning effort, the key to success in San Diego’s retail market is to focus on customer experience. You have to make it attractive for them to come out from behind their computer screens, go outside, get some fresh air, look a total stranger in the eye and be social. The market is dominated by the coastal areas between Little Italy and Carlsbad. Primary core centers that are well located and occupied with strong daily needs anchors have the most fundamental stability. Secondary centers in beach-area submarkets have some vacancies but are attractive to tenants due to their proximity to the areas with the highest disposable incomes. Investors of tertiary centers, for the most part, are looking for ways to make their centers’ relevant, with forward-thinking owners investing capital to incorporate a mixed-use component like office, hotel or multifamily. Consumers in San Diego want a vibrant, inviting center with a superior customer experience immersed in beautiful landscape under the sun. The key is having a retail environment with premier anchors to get the customer to the center, along with a great mix of tenants and events to keep the customer at the …
The outlook for San Diego’s office market is sunny and bright. Often considered a less costly option for office users as compared to other Southern California markets, San Diego holds consistent appeal for tenants seeking a coastal address where the weather is mild and the vibe is entrepreneurial and business friendly. The market is following the national trend of stronger occupancy rates and robust absorption, buoyed by a healthy economy. At 10.2 percent in the second quarter — the lowest level in nearly 14 years — San Diego’s office vacancy rate beats the national office vacancy rate of 12 percent — the lowest level in 18 years, despite construction. These fundamentals are demonstrating increased tenant demand. We’re continuing to see growth and expansion of office in submarkets throughout San Diego County. Sorrento Valley is one of the stronger office submarkets due to its centralized location and accessibility to major freeways. Other submarkets with heightened demand are Del Mar Heights, which is close to the ocean and suburban areas that house corporate executives, and Kearny Mesa, another major business center for the county. Carlsbad and Oceanside in North County and Chula Vista in South County are also popular choices. Oceanside and …
While Proposition 10 — California’s proposal to strengthen rent control — was defeated last November, it somewhat stifled the multifamily investment sector in San Diego as investors worked to figure out the next wave of opportunity. But now that market is starting to bounce back. Total multifamily sales volume in 2018 was just under $2 billion. However, several signs pointed to a resilient San Diego market, including cap rates holding steady at 4.6 percent and an increase in pricing. The tides have begun to turn in the past few months, with numerous apartment deals on the market — more than we’ve seen at one time in the past few years. This is especially true in Downtown San Diego where a significant number of new merchant-built deals are expected to come to market, continuing throughout the year. These are luxury complexes, with some expected to fetch as much as $600,000 per unit. Six conventional multifamily sales (with at least 100 units) closed in the first half of this year, totaling $550 million. This is an increase over the four sales totaling $372.5 million in the first half of 2018. The median price per unit through mid-year was $258,200, although roughly one-quarter …
The San Diego industrial market is still thriving under sunny skies. The 146-million-square-foot industrial base is more than 95 percent occupied. Businesses continue to gobble up space even though rents have grown 6 percent to 8 percent annually since 2015. Though industrial markets around the country continue to do well thanks to a rapidly expanding logistics sector, San Diego’s industrial growth is broader based. Major contributions come from the defense, tech, electronics, cross-border commerce and biotech sectors. San Diego has several large submarkets, each with its own set of opportunities and challenges. South County, which includes Otay Mesa, has seen the strongest rent growth during the current economic recovery. Since the beginning of 2018, more than 591,000 square feet of state-of-the-art distribution space has been completed, with all but 45,000 square feet fully leased up. Recent transactions in Otay include a 198,000-square-foot lease to Zucarmex and the 174,000-square-foot expansion of US Joiner Trident Marine. The vacancy rate for South County stands at 4.33 percent, slightly under the countywide rate. Vacancy in North County is running somewhat higher at 6.72 percent. This is mainly due to recent deliveries in Carlsbad. A little more than 2.2 million square feet of new space …
San Diego continues to exhibit very strong fundamentals with a healthy and diversified economy, as well as a continued shortage of housing supply. The unemployment rate of 3.3 percent is below both the California and national unemployment rate. Tourism, biotech, healthcare, education, military/defense, drone manufacturing, business services, software and other high-tech industries have made San Diego a magnet for venture capital and other business investment, creating the jobs of the future. Amazon, Apple and several other high-profile technology companies have also announced expansions in San Diego. The region attracted $744 million in venture capital this past year alone. Local housing policies, which have been unfriendly to new development, have made it very expensive to build, thereby perpetuating the shortage of housing. This dynamic has continued to bode well for multifamily investment in the region. CBRE’s Apartment Market Report for the end of the second quarter illustrates the following year-on-year changes from 2018: • The vacancy rate moved 9 basis points to 3.6 percent • Rental rates increased by 2.9 percent • New construction deliveries dropped by 14 percent • Sales volume included 95 transactions with a total dollar volume of $476 million (compared to 32 sales transactions last year that …
San Francisco has been a boom-and-bust market since the Gold Rush. The current intense scrutiny of the yield curve, combined with the stock market’s recent erratic behavior, has sent warnings of the next looming recession. Just how will this affect the office market? Fortunately for the Bay Area, not much. Today, several key factors insulate San Francisco from a severe downturn, unlike past cycles. Among them are Proposition M and a concentration of venture capital, highly skilled talent and some of the world’s largest companies. Since 1986, Proposition M has limited the amount of office development the city will authorize in any given year. The program aims to guard against typical boom-and-bust cycles. The San Francisco office market only includes 85 million square feet, as opposed to Manhattan or Houston, for example, which comprise 400 million and 240 million square feet, respectively. Manhattan currently has 12.4 million square feet of office space under construction, while San Francisco has 3 million square feet in the pipeline. The entitlement limit under Prop M has been reached, meaning no additional new projects can be approved until October when another 950,000 square feet will be allocated for the next year. At first glance, these …