The population in the Greater Portland metro grew by more than 80,000 between 2016 and 2019, while the total number of all housing units permitted was 31,538, according to the Census Bureau. This ongoing housing shortage both inside and outside Portland city limits is expected to keep property values and rents growing as demand continues to outpace supply for the foreseeable future. Since 2015, there has been an increase in the vacancy rate as thousands of new apartments have been added and absorbed. Rent and other concessions that grew during 2018 have decreased in close-in Portland, East Vancouver and Oregon City. They have increased, however, in neighborhoods where new units were delivered. After experiencing flat rents two years ago, rent increases averaged 3.7 percent between April 2018 and 2019, according to the Multifamily NW Apartment Report. Portland saw an overall transaction volume increase with a total of 38 institutional transactions in 2018. Properties valued at less than $10 million experienced only a slight increase in transactions between 2017 and 2018. Oregon also became the first to adopt statewide rent control on Feb. 28, 2019. Rent increases are capped at 7 percent plus inflation annually. No-cause evictions are limited. The Portland …
The Los Angeles office market ended the first quarter with the average asking rent steady over the prior quarter. However, at $3.20 per square foot, the average asking rent remains the highest level on record, up 4.2 percent over the first quarter of 2018 and 15 percent above the prior peak reached in 2008. While the vacancy rate this quarter increased 30 basis points over the prior quarter, it is down 10 basis points from Q1 2018 at 10.6 percent. This is about where it was pre-recession in 2004. This rise in vacancy was the result of several large move-outs, including about 200,000 square feet in the South Bay and 50,000 square feet in the Central office markets. Leasing volume fell to 5.8 million square feet, down 19.6 percent from the prior quarter and 7.9 percent from Q1 2018. The rate of job growth is having some impact on the office market. Los Angeles County remains near full employment with the unemployment rate at 4.6 percent, one of the lowest rates on record. The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) notes the county added 59,000 jobs in 2018. The latest LAEDC jobs forecast points to a strong and steady …
One fact is very clear as we assess the retail landscape and take note of the variety of retail activities taking place: food and beverage (F&B) and dining out continue to reshape consumer trends. These trends are heavily influencing retail activities throughout the region, especially in the Downtown Los Angeles submarket. The market continues to show great activity in F&B as landlords look to absorb vacancies with more food uses by creating unique dining experiences and take-out options for today’s consumer. This new demand has been the catalyst for the increase in commissary kitchens and restaurateurs leasing spaces for delivery models that cater to the growing, app-based delivery services. CBRE’s latest report, the Food in Demand Series, highlights the momentum of F&B. This extends to fast-casual dining, prepared dining options offered in grocery stores, and as stand-alone offerings in mixed-use settings, such as residential, creative office and hospitality projects. Per the report, consumer spending in restaurants amongst Millennials, Generation X and Baby Boomers has outpaced spending on grocery items. This is a significant shift for consumers. For this reason, we will likely see landlords maintain a focus on F&B as a means to bring value to their assets and create …
The Los Angeles County industrial market continues to see record low vacancy rates, which are hovering in the 1 percent range with a conservative forecast calling for rents to increase by 7.5 percent in 2019. Ecommerce companies and third-party logistics providers (3PLs) — many of which support ecommerce operations — will continue to be dominant market players, according to NKF’s Los Angeles industrial market report for Q1 2019. In North Los Angeles, we are seeing multiple submarkets, including those in the San Fernando Valley, Ventura County, Conejo Valley, Kern County, and the Santa Clarita areas, becoming more connected than ever before. These areas and projects are now “connecting the dots” between all the submarkets as the opportunities for industrial space in Los Angeles’ core markets become increasingly more competitive and scarce. For example, occupiers that have been in the 130 million-square-foot San Fernando Valley industrial market for decades are now needing more space. However, the opportunities for larger, modern product are just not there. The majority of industrial product is less than 100,000 square feet with 16- to 24-foot clear heights. This can work for users like cosmetics, entertainment and aerospace, but others need more modern features to streamline operations. …
The City of Los Angeles checks all the boxes for an excellent apartment owner environment. This includes a booming economy, expensive housing, meaningful job growth, and an abundance of Millennials and professionals. Los Angeles enjoys an immense and fast-growing high-tech industry, especially within the media, tech, aerospace and advanced transportation industry with the likes of Netflix, Google, SpaceX and Northrop Grumman. Los Angeles County houses the nation’s largest international trade industry, the nation’s largest manufacturing base, and an increasing amount of venture capital investment startups. A growing economy is almost always paired with escalating housing costs, and Los Angeles is no exception. More than ever, residents are driven to rental housing as homeownership is prohibitively expensive and not conducive to job mobility and flexibility. Last year was a banner year for region’s apartment sector. The average market rent in the Los Angeles MSA has seen extremely impressive growth, increasing an average of 5.3 percent annually since the turn of the century, according to Axiometrics. This remarkable trajectory has been spurred by the extremely tight rental market, with annual occupancies averaging between 94 percent and 97 percent. Such indicators allow landlords to be extremely discerning when vetting tenants, which, in turn, …
The multifamily investment activity in Metro Phoenix remains extremely strong. This is driven by the employment and population growth in these markets, as well as by the affordability of rental housing compared to other parts of the nation. The employment growth has occurred in many segments, including technology, medical and finance. Technology companies are focused on cities where universities provide an abundant supply of skilled labor for these types of jobs. Arizona State University (ASU) in Metro Phoenix is one of the largest universities in the country with more than 87,000 students. It is working hand in hand with technology companies and other expanding employers to provide the education their students will need to fulfill openings in the market. A skilled workforce and affordable housing have been strong pulls for companies looking to relocate, expand or get off the ground. The increases in jobs and population have led to further increases in rent, occupancy, construction and absorption. The public’s changing perception about home ownership and the freedom that renting allows — along with the amenities provided in many of today’s apartment communities — has propelled multifamily demand in Metro Phoenix. The area’s overall vacancy rate for the third quarter was …
Phoenix has long enjoyed the benefits of land, labor and logistics. In today’s ecommerce-driven market, however, those benefits are propelling the Valley’s industrial activity, and opportunity, to new heights. The region has absorbed more than 5.8 million square feet of industrial space year-to-date. It has also welcomed almost 5 million square feet of new industrial construction, while industrial vacancy rates still sit below 7 percent — their lowest levels in 12 years. Some of this activity can be credited to the price and availability of our land. This typically involves large parcels in the West Valley within close proximity to freeways that are often available at $5 per square foot to $6 per square foot. This is attracting tremendous big box interest, particularly in the Southwest Valley submarket where much of the metro’s more than 5.7 million square feet of new construction is occurring. Lincoln Property Company delivered one of the largest of these developments this past December: the $85 million, 901,700-square-foot Lincoln Logistics Center 40. Underscoring high confidence in the industrial sector, Lincoln Logistics 40 was developed fully speculative with amenities that target ecommerce and logistics-focused users. Among these are 40’ clear height ceilings, sophisticated cross-dock configuration, and extensive …
When we last reported on the health of Oahu’s industrial market in December 2017, we offered rationale for a then 1.88 percent industrial vacancy rate. This was fueled by demand from contractors building large residential condo developments, the construction of a nearly $10 billion light rail system (voter approved at less than $5 billion), booming tourism and military sectors and large public infrastructure improvements. Oahu’s small 40.4-million-square-foot industrial market was under further compression as industrial product was being taken by the state to support rail construction, or lost due to high rise residential construction and the expansion of our main Honolulu harbor. A prohibitive industrial construction cost scale, which generally exceeds $125 per square foot for metal skin shell warehouse, had also slowed spec and build-to-suit construction. Fast forward to late 2018, and our statistics reflect an industrial vacancy rate bouncing off the bottom at just 2.02 percent. The monthly industrial base rent average is $1.20 per square foot and monthly operating expenses are $0.40 per square foot. This vacancy rate average reflects a small increase over the previous quarter as tenants scrape the bottom of the inventory barrel looking for suitable space. LoopNet cites six industrial availabilities of more …
Hawaii’s multifamily market continues to achieve record pricing driven by strong local investor demand and notable institutional investors of larger mega deals at $100 million or above. This market is defined by limited inventory and prohibitively expensive new construction that leaves Hawaii with stable annual vacancy rates of about 96 percent. Hawaii has seen only modest increases in annual rental rates of less than 1 percent and relatively low rents for apartments in our market that pencil out to $1.75 per square foot to $2.25 per square foot. Despite these relatively anemic financial returns, enthusiasm remains for this sector. In fact, multifamily continues to reign as the most desired asset class for local investors with monthly transaction counts in the five to seven range and the most aggressive cap rates currently averaging 3.86 percent. The pricing results for multifamily have been stunning with per-unit sales prices ranging from $250,000 to $380,000, depending on the type of construction. The multifamily market demand drivers are not anticipated to change in the near term. While the island of Oahu reports average annual new housing demand of 3,500 units, only 1,500 housing units at most are approved annually. Paul Brewbaker, former chief economist for …
The Hawaii investment sale market was active in 2018 with an abundance of capital seeking investment opportunities throughout the state and across all product types. Mortgage availability from local banks and non-local financiers remained strong, and there was a steady flow of new interest from debt and equity sources looking for first opportunities in Hawaii. Last year’s transaction volume (including entity level) was up 33 percent from 2017 to $5.5 billion. Institutional and cross-border investment volumes were up from 2017 and performing well above the 10-year average. It was a slower year for private investors and REITs, though institutional capital from Singapore, Zurich, Kuwait, Germany and Japan were the foreign standouts in 2018. Entity-level activity boosted Hawaii’s transaction volume significantly in 2018. We anticipate this story to continue to spill over into Hawaii through 2019 as institutions deploy large amounts of capital to build scale. Brookfield’s acquisition of GGP was the largest entity-level transaction, which included the 2.5 million-square-foot Ala Moana Center with its two office buildings consisting of about 400,000 square feet, the Whalers Village in Maui and the Prince Kuhio Plaza in Hilo. The hospitality sector led the charge for the third year in a row with $2.45 …