Denver’s industrial market has had an impressive run so far this economic cycle – so much so that the top-of-mind-question is, “Where do we go from here?” Last year was a prolific year, attracting new investors, delivering 4.5 million square feet of Class A space and posting the fifth straight year of sub-5 percent vacancy. But the outlook for 2017 is brighter given Denver’s strong economic foundation, the arrival of e-commerce users and delivery of much-needed warehouse inventory. E-commerce Arrives in a Big Way E-commerce arrived in Denver in 2016 but is only just rolling out. Construction began earlier this year on a 1.1-million-square-foot fulfillment center, which will be the market’s largest industrial building upon completion. Several other last-mile e-commerce facilities are opening in the region that are intended to provide same-day or fresh food delivery. The local e-commerce footprint is approaching 3 million square feet in total. E-commerce companies are actively securing sites in Denver largely in response to the region’s explosive population growth. Colorado was the second-fastest-growing state in 2015, and Colorado’s Front Range communities are home to more than 5 million people. Between 2010 and 2016, Denver added nearly 1,000 new residents a week and ranked 12th …
The region is creating transformative projects that are substantially elevating the desirability of its office market five years into Denver’s strong development cycle. This trend — strongest in Denver’s Central Business District (CBD) and Southeast Suburban (SES) submarkets — is attracting a new breed of tenants to the Denver landscape. About 1.4 million square feet of Class A office space has been delivered in Denver’s CBD since 2012, with an equal amount under construction. Deliveries in the previous development cycles (1999 to2003 and 2007 to 2010) were on a smaller scale, delivering about 800,000 square feet and more than 1.5 million square feet, respectively. During the 2007 to 2010 development cycle, which had the unfortunate timing of commencing right before the financial crisis, new product struggled with pre-leasing. It took an average of 10 quarters to lease up to stabilized occupancy at 85 percent. Only one project, 1800 Larimer Street, was more than 85 percent leased in the first year. In contrast, the current cycle is much different and much stronger. The amount of square footage being added to the CBD outweighs the previous other two cycles. Leasing activity is white hot as well, with new product averaging 60 percent …
The New Mexico office market heart is found in Albuquerque. During the first quarter of 2017, the Albuquerque office market has seen an increase in activity from local companies looking for newer and updated spaces, but not necessarily more space. The office market has been the last to see any type of recovery after the recession. The vacancy rate remains steady at about 21 percent. Continuing through 2017, we anticipate moderately positive absorption. Albuquerque remains over-built and under-demolished, with many office buildings being functionally obsolete. Other than two new, build-to-suit medical buildings, one being 43,000 square feet and the other being 90,000 square feet, there are not any planned speculative office buildings. State Farm recently announced it will vacate 35,000 square feet and move its call center operations to Arizona. A multi-market, healthcare administration office has downsized from 67,000 square feet to about 25,000 square feet. These shifts will yield two properties with large contiguous spaces, an excellent opportunity for tenants with large space requirements. However, there are fewer opportunities for those looking for updated spaces. There are currently less than 10 modern office buildings for lease or sale. As such, modern Class A office buildings continue to have high …
The New Mexico multifamily market, more specifically Albuquerque, recorded an impressively strong 2016 with vacancies dropping below 5 percent. Asking rents have increased for three consecutive years, fueling the investment market both in volume and prices. Employment grew by 2,700 jobs in Albuquerque last year. More than 2,000 of those were added in the fourth quarter, making it the strongest employment growth quarter in more than four years. Mining, logging and construction led the way in job creation, growing their sectors by nearly 8 percent. Professional, business services and the hospitality sector also strengthened on the job front. This expansion drove demand for multifamily units, pushing vacancy downward. The vacancy rate in Albuquerque declined 60 basis points in 2016, following a 100 basis point drop in 2015. Rents dropped slightly in the fourth quarter, but year-end 2016 asking rents were up 4 percent over 2015 to an average of $776 per month. Rent growth in the area has averaged 2.7 percent per year since 2014. Developers stepped up to the plate in 2016, answering the demand for more units. The market received 675 new units with about 1,000 more currently under construction. One of the new highly anticipated projects is …
The Inland Empire multifamily market will retain its solid foundation of positivity this year as the economy again provides a healthy supply of new jobs and freshly formed households seek apartments to rent. The number of new multifamily units scheduled for delivery is a fraction of what it was last year, and this will place downward pressure on vacancy. Tightening vacancy will support another year of above-trend rent growth. Strong job growth in wholesale trade, government and transportation and warehousing positions has drawn many new employees to the Inland Empire in recent years. The number of 20- to 34-year-olds, who typically favor rental housing, has steadily increased. Growth in wholesale trade, government and warehousing will continue to attract Millennials in 2017, and the region’s employers are expected to add 27,500 new jobs overall. The Inland Empire’s employment boom has led to an increase in household formation, which has stimulated new multifamily construction. Developers fruitfully delivered 2,600 new units to the market in 2016. This exuberance, however, may well have been the peak for the current real estate cycle. This year, the projected number of apartment completions is just 500. This much more measured level of development will be quickly absorbed …
In many ways, Portland’s industrial market has experienced a dramatic shift over the past five years, emerging as a market to be reckoned with. Demand has exceeded supply for the past six years, pushing vacancy to a 25-year low and rents up 18 percent year-over-year. Industrial users have grown in size, and large users have grown in number. Developments are bigger and migrating further from the traditional industrial submarkets. Investors are keen on Portland assets and are willing to pay a premium for quality product with a solid tenant roster. Portland’s population grew by 8 percent from 2010 to 2015, ranking it among the top 20 of the 50 largest U.S. cities. This growth in metro-area population has propelled strong demand from large e-commerce and distribution companies as they expand into new locations to service our growing consumer base. In 2010, we saw 11 users lease or build spaces of 100,000 square feet or more, and our average size lease was 24,854 square feet. By 2016, our average-sized industrial lease had grown to 39,218 square feet, an increase of 57.8 percent. We also saw 18 users build or lease space greater than 100,000 square feet. Portland’s industrial market users are …
Last year was a relatively flat year for the Northern Nevada office market. Reno/Sparks had negative absorption in the first and third quarters of 2016, and positive absorption in the second and fourth quarters. The year ended up at 10,153 square feet of net absorption, according to the DCG internal database, essentially nullifying any real gains or losses. However, the Reno office market is much healthier at a 12 percent vacancy rate as compared to the nearly 20 percent recession highs. Each quarter also recognized more gross absorption than the previous quarter in 2016. Class A office continued to be in demand with rents increasing to north of $2 per square foot, per month, full service. Large spaces ideal for company relocations are difficult to find. Reno currently has a small supply of vacant, Class A spaces with more than 10,000 square feet available. However, we should see our first speculative construction take place in the Meadowood submarket as Mckenzie Properties plans a 40,000-square-foot building in Mountain View Corporate Center. New corporate relocations for office tenants were relatively quiet in 2016. In comparison to 2015, we saw large tenants relocate to our region, including Grand Rounds in South Meadows and …
Local market conditions are always related in some way to what’s happening on the national stage, so let’s first acknowledge our new leadership. Trump has continued talking like the businessman he is and in very much the same style that got him elected. In reaction, equities markets have continued to boil over into record-setting heights as the business sector embraces the potential for more business-friendly stances that will sooner or later emerge from Washington. Business resurgences always impact Northern Nevada, thanks to both its strategic location advantage in distributing to the 11 Western states and its highly business-friendly state climate. As for Tesla, 2016 showcased increasingly tangible direct and indirect effects from the expanding Gigafactory. Tesla leased a large warehouse in the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center near the Gigafactory to receive product for several years. Panasonic, Tesla’s quieter partner in the Gigafactory, also leased a large warehouse in the same park that is close to the plant. Another Tesla vendor, Daehan Solutions America, an international company supplying the automotive industry and headquartered in South Korea, leased a large space in the vacant ex-Amazon space in Fernley. These three transactions alone comprise a large portion of the market’s total quarterly absorption. …
Increased activity and record amounts of positive net absorption created a new commercial landscape across the Wasatch Front. The majority of 2016 leasing activity was a result of tenants occupying new space that was pre-leased during 2015. While sublease availability increased over each quarter, overall market indicators like local population growth and continued economic development will remain strong into 2017. The Salt Lake County office market grew by an additional 1.7 million square feet in 2016, primarily in the South submarket. More than 1.5 million square feet of space was under construction at the close of 2016. This product will be introduced to the market by mid-year 2017. Vacancy rates increased slightly from 8.6 percent in 2015 to 8.74 percent at the end of 2016. Notable Salt Lake office projects completed in 2016 include 111 South Main (440,000 square feet); Vista Stations 4 through 8 (655,000 square feet); The Pointe I (77,703 square feet); the Overstock Peace Coliseum (231,000 square feet); and Town Ridge Center I & II (250,000 square feet), to name a few. An additional 1.5 million square feet of space was under construction at the end of the year. Buildings like 53rd Center 1 (200,000 square feet); …
With nearly 3 million square feet of industrial space under construction, and climbing lease rates averaging $5.64 per square foot, it is safe to say the industrial market along Utah’s Wasatch Front is alive and well. The primary Salt Lake County market reports an overall industrial vacancy level of 5.08 percent. In the fast-growing Utah County submarket that’s just south of Salt Lake City, the vacancy rate is 3.44 percent. This is in line with the pre-recession levels experienced in the mid-2000s. The most noticeable difference in today’s environment is the scale of buildings being built on spec, as well as who is carrying out these projects. We continue to see construction starts and announcements on buildings larger than 300,000 square feet — many of which are speculative — by out-of-state development or investment groups. This includes companies like Clarion Partners, Exeter Property Group and Seefried Industrial Properties. This represents a new resurgence of interest by many of the “brand name,” major-market players who want to be part of the dynamic growth occurring in Utah. This is a growing trend nationally as well, which is interesting to see in the relatively smaller, 170-million-square-foot Wasatch Front market.Activity from the local players …