Western Market Reports

Demand, Product Coming to Phoenix’s Multifamily Market

by Camren Skelton March 14, 2017

With record-low cap rates dipping as far as 2.9 percent, the nation’s top multifamily markets have become expensive. In response, investors have turned to secondary markets like Phoenix, where upside potential is still strong, pricing is manageable and cap rates are hovering in the high 4 percent to mid-5 percent range. Although multifamily sales have maintained their accelerated pace nationwide, that pace is being driven by secondary markets — particularly in the West. Metro Phoenix captured more than $5.2 billion of this activity, up significantly from its previous peak of $4.6 billion in total multifamily sales in 2006. As of year-end 2016, the average multifamily price per unit in Phoenix was $110,000, compared to a national average of $145,000 for properties valued at more than $2.5 million. In the eyes of investors, Phoenix offers a stable inventory of existing Class A and B product, and a wave of new Class A units that have taken luxury in the market to a new level. This high-end product provides a key benefit for investors: it attracts residents who are willing and able to pay premium rents for a better lifestyle. The Valley is in a good position to support luxury product, with …

March 14, 2017

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Industrial, R&D Development Returns to San Diego In Full Force

by Camren Skelton March 7, 2017

After a decade of scarce industrial development in San Diego County, 2016 marked its strong return. About 1.3 million square feet of industrial/R&D space was completed, which is more than what was delivered between 2013 and 2015 combined. This year is expected to be an even more active year for industrial/R&D speculative and build-to-suit development with an additional 1.4 million square feet currently under construction. North County San Diego has become the concentrated hotspot for both speculative and build-to-suit industrial development. Nearly two-thirds of all new industrial/R&D development completed in 2016 was in North County, including about 233,227 square feet of speculative construction. This new wave of development was triggered by 16 consecutive quarters of rental rate increases and last year’s record-low vacancy rate of 4.7 percent for combined industrial/R&D properties countywide. Average asking rental rates are increasing quicker in North County than anywhere else in San Diego. North County’s average asking rental rates have increased by 5.9 percent since the end of 2015, whereas the countywide rate increased by only 3 percent in the same period. Vacancy will likely fluctuate between 4 percent and 5 percent throughout 2017 as net absorption keeps pace with new construction. Many organizations are …

March 7, 2017

California Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

OC’s Apartment Market Continues Expansion

by Camren Skelton February 28, 2017

Rent an apartment or buy a home? That is the question now posed to many Millennials as they face the facts about the high barriers to homeownership that generations before them, at the same stage of life, could easily overcome. But since the Great Recession and the loose homeownership qualifications that helped spawn it, banks and other home-lending institutions have been under the tight-fisted control of government regulators who have demanded, rightly or wrongly, that prospective homeowners meet strict and often daunting qualifications to buy a house. While that’s bad news for a generation that was raised by families who owned homes and where a home was the primary financial asset for inheritance, it’s good news for multifamily investors, developers and contractors. The demand for apartments has risen to levels eclipsing demand for homeownership in one of the few times in modern history. This is especially true in Orange County where home prices have always been among the highest in the nation. In fact, demand among multifamily investors is so strong that nearly every recent offering for well-located apartment properties has garnered multiple offers, creating a perfect-storm situation for the sellers. One sale that involved an investment portfolio of four …

February 28, 2017

California Market Reports Retail Western Western Market Reports

OC’s Retail Market to Remain Stable With Mild Volatility

by Camren Skelton February 21, 2017

Expect the Orange County retail landscape to be characterized by continued strong fundamentals and high transaction volumes in 2017. The area remains among the most stable markets nationally—attractive to both high-end and affordable retailers thanks to its high median income and population growth. However, a bit of volatility would be welcomed in the coming year to generate leasing opportunities and enhance rental rate growth. Significant store closings, including a selection of Walmarts, Macy’s, Staples and Sears, in addition to Sports Authority and Sports Chalet locations, affected many of our regional malls and shopping centers in 2016. As a result, we will continue to see more space absorbed rather than closed or constructed in the coming year. This type of instability breeds opportunity. From grocers to soft goods to restaurateurs, traditional and non-traditional retailers remain motivated to identify what works best across Southern California. Retailers who have been working to right-size and reconfigure their traditional formats will catch everyone’s attention in 2017. Target recently announced the opening of a flex-format concept with plans for a 41,000-square-foot store in Orange in the fall. Burlington Coat Factory has been evaluating a smaller footprint, while 365 by Whole Foods will soon enter the Orange …

February 21, 2017

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

Los Angeles Office Market Points to Steady Demand, Further Growth in 2017

by Camren Skelton February 14, 2017

The Los Angeles office market continues to experience steady demand and accelerated rent growth as we enter 2017. The market is heading into its sixth consecutive year of expansion, after seeing a sharp contraction between 2008 and 2011. The Los Angeles office market has witnessed vacancy rates steadily decline from 16.3 percent to 13.7 percent since 2011, all the while absorbing more than 10.5 million square feet of occupied space. The market only added 4.5 million square feet of new construction during that same period, allowing vacancy to steadily decline back into the low teens, while average full-service gross asking rents have increased from $29.28 per square foot to $35.76 per square foot, up 22.1 percent. More importantly is the accelerated rent growth during this period. Rents increased 1.6 percent in 2012; 2.8 percent in 2013; 3.9 percent in 2014; 5.3 percent in 2015; and 6.8-percent to date in 2016. On the demand side, net absorption growth rates have been trending higher since 2012, averaging 0.8 percent during the past five years. They will finish above 1 percent for the second consecutive year. This remains below the growth rates experienced from 2003 to 2007, which averaged an annual growth of …

February 14, 2017

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Downtown LA’s Industrial Supply Gives Way to Other Uses

by Camren Skelton February 7, 2017

When you visit Los Angeles, the sight of the cranes looming in the sky in all directions shows a city undergoing significant revitalization and redevelopment. Not so long ago, the Downtown area of Los Angeles went “dark.” This occurred after the hustle and bustle of the normal workday was done and the streets were mostly empty, businesses closed. Fortunately, Los Angeles has seen significant construction and redevelopment over the past few years. According to the Downtown Center Business Improvement District (DCBID), the population of Downtown Los Angeles was 18,000 people in 1999. Today, the population is estimated at 63,208, with a daytime population of 500,000. The residential inventory consists of 36,964 units with 11,868 under construction and 19,054 proposed for a total of 48,832 units as of the third quarter of 2016. There are 8,163 hotel rooms with 2,765 more under construction and 3,636 proposed for a total of 14,564. Retail has 2 million square feet under construction and an additional 1.5 million square feet proposed. Major industrial activity includes the announcement of Warner Music Group relocating from Burbank to the Arts District where it will occupy 257,000 square feet at the former Ford Factory, which was constructed in 1912. …

February 7, 2017

California Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

Encouraging Multifamily Market Fundamentals Drive Investors to the Inland Empire

by Camren Skelton January 24, 2017

A steady supply of job opportunities and the growing population in the Inland Empire are supporting household formation, raising demand for housing and bolstering the performance of the area’s multifamily property market. Nearly 22,420 households were formed in the Inland Empire over the past four quarters that ended in September, while 48,500 individuals were added to the local population. By year’s end, area employers will have expanded the workforce by 2.2 percent with the addition of 30,000 positions. Hiring this year was driven by the government sector, which climbed 4 percent, or by more than 9,400 workers during the past 12 months that ended Sept. 30. The trade, transportation and utilities sectors also performed well, contributing 8,950 jobs over the same period. These strong hiring trends resulted in the unemployment rate falling 20 basis points to 6.2 percent — nearing the pre-recession five-year average of 5.7 percent — over the year-long period that ended in the third quarter of 2016. The Inland Empire’s growth and solid economic fundamentals are key factors behind the observable rise in construction activity we’ve witnessed this year. Apartment construction is booming, and builders are expected to more than double the units that were brought into …

January 24, 2017

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Inland Empire: The Industrial Sector’s Well-Rounded Evolution

by Camren Skelton January 17, 2017

People are aware of the Inland Empire’s rapidly growing market and the fulfillment center trend that’s sweeping Southern California. Amazon, Walmart and many others continue to be pioneers in logistics and door-to-door fulfillment, but the side of the market people are missing is the smaller, more locally sourced user, the groups that service these large international companies. It’s a common theme that when the big guys grow into space there’s normally a contingent of smaller users behind them ready to take down the small- to mid-sized product. This trend has never been more true than it has over the past 12 months. As million-square-foot buildings continue to be leased out by these massive conglomerates, the smaller product has been flying off the shelves. There was a concern in early 2016 that this size range was going to be overbuilt, but due to 8.5 million square feet worth of gross absorption through the first three quarters in the 100,000- to 300,000-square-foot size range, that idea has become a misconception. We’re now sitting with a deficiency of product driving lease rates and sales numbers higher than ever. Lease rates in this size range have jumped about 8 percent over the past year …

January 17, 2017

Market Reports Nevada Retail Western Western Market Reports

Major Sales, New Players Enter Vegas’ Retail Market

by Camren Skelton January 10, 2017

There are two trends that describe the current state of retail development in Southern Nevada: restaurants are expanding and some junior boxes are closing. Ecommerce competition and the consolidation of retailers nationally has caused junior box tenants to continue to struggle. It is odd to see a new development like the 1.6-million-square-foot Downtown Summerlin open on the affluent west side of the Valley in October 2014, only to see two junior boxes close since then. The Sports Authority shuttered its doors earlier this year, while Golfsmith just announced it would cease operations by the end of 2016. Other retailers in the development are doing very well, but it is an unfortunate sign of the times to see junior anchors close in good retail developments. When analyzing ecommerce vs. bricks and mortar, retailers are paying more attention to the facts listed in the table below. The example compares Amazon to Walmart — both great businesses but differing models. The reason is clear why it is difficult to compete when Amazon is able to produce 165 percent more per employee. This analysis does not include the difference in fixed assets, which only further exaggerates the advantage for Amazon when considering what a …

January 10, 2017

Industrial Market Reports Nevada Western Western Market Reports

Industrial Demand, Construction Remains Hot in Las Vegas

by Camren Skelton January 3, 2017

Though there was a slight decline in Las Vegas’ overall industrial market activity in the first half of 2016, the remainder of the year will finish strong as the region continues to see significant expansion. Despite aggressive market conditions, demand continued to outpace new supply during the third quarter of this year, while asking rates rose and large distribution centers dominated market activity. Demand for industrial space in the Las Vegas market increased during the third quarter, with 787,582 square feet of net absorption, bringing the total net absorption year-to-date to more than 2 million square feet. New completions totaled 642,571 square feet and vacancy rates decreased to 4.4 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2007. The average asking triple-net lease rate climbed to $0.62 per square foot, per month, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2009. There are currently nine industrial projects under construction throughout the Las Vegas Valley, totaling nearly 4.8 million square feet. New construction activity has been well above the long-term average since 2015, and will continue to outpace historical levels through 2017. The increase in construction activity has largely been fueled by a combination of a lack of available large bulk distribution …

January 3, 2017

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