The Phoenix office market ended the third quarter in a very strong position. Increasing momentum in the sector should continue into 2015. Healthier economic conditions, including a growing GDP and higher employment, are translating into increased market activity and confidence. The biggest take-away from Phoenix’s rebounding office sector is new office development, with several high-profile construction projects underway in the East Valley. Tower cranes dot the horizon along Tempe Town Lake in downtown Tempe. The largest project, State Farm’s Marina Heights, is under construction on its first phase, which includes two mid-rises totaling more than 1 million square feet. Additional phases will bring the project to more than 2 million square feet, making it the largest office project in Arizona. Hayden Ferry Lakeside III is under construction with a 10-story, 250,000-square-foot building on the lake. This is the third and final phase of this office project. Arizona State University has also jumped into the mix by announcing a huge 330-acre development on the south side of Tempe Town Lake. It is expected to incorporate athletic, commercial and residential projects at full build-out that will be utilized as a funding source for ASU Athletics. USA Place, a $400-million-plus development in downtown, …
Western Market Reports
The Phoenix industrial market is definitely following national trends in terms of recovery. Since 2010, U.S. industrial markets have seen rising demand trends with supply additions that have not kept pace. Demand for newer, Class A industrial space, as well as for use-specific space, is outpacing supply and encouraging more build-to-suit and speculative development activity across markets. Developers have shown discipline so far, however, as the amount of new supply added to the market since 2010 is well below the levels seen during previous expansionary periods. These trends are manifesting themselves in a variety of ways in Metro Phoenix. First, it’s clear that demand is definitely up. The industrial market has seen significant activity over the past several quarters. Leases for spaces between 20,000 and 200,000 square feet have totaled more than 10.5 million square feet since January 2013. Deals of this size have totaled more than 1.4 million square feet of absorption this year alone. This is important to note because the overall health of the Metro Phoenix industrial market has historically been supported by midsized users. This size range shows no signs of slowing as we round out 2014 and head into 2015. In fact, we know of …
Home to nearly 850,000 people and rapidly growing, the City of San Francisco is packed into a little less than 47 square miles. Having long been known as one of the primary financial, tech and cultural hubs of the United States, San Francisco is a place where many people want to be. Business is booming, companies are competing for employees, and the city is as culturally vibrant as ever. It seems like every week there is another article about San Francisco topping another a “best of” list. Supply, Demand, Rent Control Every city endures growing pains during times of economic expansion – new construction, rising rents and home prices – not to mention added stress to the local public infrastructure. The supply of housing in San Francisco remains relatively static for various reasons, with strict building and zoning regulations, a comparatively fixed supply of buildable land and the added complications surrounding the development of real estate in a densely populated, coastal city. On the flipside, demand for housing, which most consider a necessity, is highly inelastic. This is due to the average per-capita income for San Francisco residents, which is about 80 percent higher than the average per-capita of the …
The Seattle-Tacoma metro area is one of the top-performing multifamily commercial real estate markets in the nation. Locally, employers are adding jobs at one of the fastest paces in the country, supporting a strong rental market in the region. In Tacoma, State Farm and other companies have energized the area’s economy and strengthened its apartment operations. In Seattle, companies like Amazon, Zillow and Julep Beauty are supporting new job growth, and many of these new job opportunities are attracting young workers who need apartments. There were 8,800 jobs were created in the metro in the beginning of the year. About 130,000 workers were added to payrolls over the past three years. The primary renter cohort of residents between the ages of 20 and 34 years old grew nearly twice as fast as the metro population in 2013, greatly increasing the need for apartments. This year, strong job growth will also support demand for area rentals as the total jobs in the metro will rise nearly 4 percent above the pre-recession high. While there are plenty of new jobs, the median household income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home in the metro is $83,150, assuming a 20 …
Seattle has come a long way since the 1971 billboard reading “will the last person leaving Seattle turn the lights off?” The greater Seattle economy and real estate market has continued to be one of the nation’s top- performing locales, even exceeding its prior 2007 peak. Large corporations such as Amazon, Boeing, Microsoft and Starbucks, along with many independent startup companies, have rapidly reduced the unemployment rate, which has dropped to 4.8 percent. The construction pipeline in Seattle remains robust. With more than 20 cranes working on new developments, the market has the most active projects underway since the Downtown Seattle Associations started tracking development in 2005. Nearly two-thirds of construction in Seattle is residential, with more than 5,000 new apartment units opening since January 2013, and more than 6,000 new units to be completed in the next three years, according to the DSA report. During the past year, the amount of office space under construction has nearly doubled from 1.7 million square feet to more than 3.2 million square feet. A large contributor to this is Amazon’s revitalization of the South Lake Union area. Amazon’s global workforce has doubled in the past two years, and the company is reportedly …
San Francisco is a veritable boom town that has already surpassed the market roar of 1999. It can even conceivably be compared to 1849, when gold was discovered 100 miles east. In fact, this year is so utterly off the charts that most of us in the commercial real estate industry have never seen an upcycle like this in our entire careers. Witness the fact that through the first three quarters of 2014, San Francisco’s gross office absorption reached 7.6 million square feet. Net absorption in this same period was 2.4 million square feet. This compares with 1999, the record year, when gross absorption was 7.4 million square feet – and that was for the entire year! It is quite possible we’ll hit 10 million square feet of gross absorption by the time 2014 closes out. Incidentally, net absorption for 1999 was “only” 526,000 square feet. Not surprisingly, three out of the four biggest leases in the third quarter were completed by tech companies. The tech frenzy in San Francisco has been well documented. Most of the Silicon Valley companies want, or need, to have a presence in the city. The trend is employment-driven. Young techies don’t want to commute …
With the scarcity of vacant land in Orange County and the need for antiquated properties to be updated, the trend seems to be redevelopment with an eye on mixed-use retail, including a multi-story residential component. There are currently several new development projects either in the planning or construction phase. Los Olivos Marketplace – Irvine The Irvine Company plans to build Los Olivos Marketplace, a new 120,000-square-foot retail center across from its Los Olivos Apartment Community on Irvine Center Drive near the 405 Freeway in Irvine. This development would be situated adjacent to its existing 62,000-square-foot retail center, and just minutes from the firm’s Irvine Spectrum Cente. Whole Foods Market has already signed a lease for 40,000 square feet at the center. It plans to open in spring 2016. The Source – Buena Park On a more international scale, M+D Properties is building a 400,000-square-foot, mixed-use center known as The Source in Buena Park. It would include world-class, high-end retailers and restaurants, a 150-room Hyatt Place, a seven-story office building, a 1,200-seat movie theater, and a 54,000-square-foot performing arts center called YG Land, from South Korea-based entertainment company YG Entertainment. The project is expected to be complete early next year. Pacific …
No one will deny that the Orange County industrial market is tight, boasting a 4.1 percent vacancy. If you are an industrial user looking for 100,000 square feet or more, your options are extremely limited, as supply and demand are not working in your favor in terms of rental rates and landlord concessions. According to CoStar, positive net absorption was just above 900,000 square feet for the second quarter of 2014. Compare that with the 978,000 square feet currently under construction and it is easy to see why most believe these rate and scarcity trends will continue. A number of large warehouse and industrial buildings in Orange County are also being raised and converted to high-density residential or data center space. These facts beg the question, where will all the industrial users go? Two counterbalances have the potential to cool the decreasing vacancy and create disintermediation to the benefit of Orange County industrial users. As rental rates continue to rise in Orange County, more and more companies are being lured to the Inland Empire where they can still make two port trips a day and consolidate into a much more efficient and affordable building. Companies that grew by necessity in …
The Los Angeles industrial market continues to lead the country with the lowest vacancy of any industrial market. The combination of the overall market’s size and lack of inventory continues to put upward pressure on rents. Not only is there limited inventory, but a lack of quality product puts top economical facilities in high demand. The inability to build new product readily, combined with increasing demand, changes the focus of the marketplace going forward. As rents for high-quality properties continue to rise, developers and land owners are looking for ways to redevelop existing product to take advantage of this need. A number of redevelopment projects have recently commenced construction, and many of those properties are already pre-leased prior to completion. This increased demand also gives owners of older, less functional properties the ability to spend the necessary funds to upgrade their facilities with the anticipation of receiving higher rents and a return on their investment. The increase in demand from international commerce through the Port of Los Angeles, combined with growth in the manufacturing, aerospace and healthcare sectors, have all assisted in this overall increase in demand. The need for third-party logistics companies to acquire large chunks of space to …
Multifamily remains the most desirable asset class in Orange County due to a steady increase in apartment rental demand, strong sector fundamentals and the county’s emergence as a Southern California leader in the economic recovery. These factors have become a catalyst for a surge in multifamily asset construction. Apartment rental demand continues to grow in Orange County due to the high barriers to entry in the housing market and recent memories of the Great Recession. Median home values, which now exceed $580,000, place home ownership out of reach for many households. Orange County’s population also grew 4.31 percent from 2010 through 2014, according to Census data. This growth pattern is predicted to hold through 2019, with an expected increase in population of 5.17 percent, or an average of 32,478 residents annually. Orange County’s emergence as a leader in Southern California’s economic recovery is evidenced by superior employment rates in comparison to competing markets. Orange County experienced a high unemployment rate of 10.2 percent in January 2012. That rate has now declined 4.89 percent, as of May 2014. Orange County’s employment figures have increased investor confidence in the region, especially when compared to the national average of 6.3 percent, California’s 7.8 …