Multifamily development in the State of Hawaii and specifically on the Island of Oahu is primarily focused on for-sale condominium development. This has limited new developments of rental projects, leading to a critical shortage of affordable housing. In response, county governments implemented workforce housing requirements on new developments. The limited supply of rental housing is reflected in the region’s low vacancy rates, creating upward pressure on rental rates. Perhaps the primary reason for the limited supply and resulting high rental rates in Hawaii, and on the Island of Oahu in particular, are the significant barriers to entry. The primary barriers are the high cost of land and the infeasibility of developers to put together rental residential projects without public subsidy. Secondly, building regulations and urban boundary limits aimed at reducing sprawl have constrained the amount of land that can be developed with residential uses. Additionally, a stringent and often lengthy entitlement process adds time and risk to projects, further reducing their financial feasibility. The conversion of military housing to private use over the past decade resulted in an increase in private sector apartment units for Honolulu County. However, this was a transfer from the public to the private sector, rather …
Western Market Reports
Multifamily transaction activity increased 13 percent year over year in San Diego in 2012. Although many people predicted a dramatic increase in year-end closings to avoid the uncertainty of tax reform, owners continued to shelter their money in apartments. Economic Drivers San Diego’s diverse economic base added 24,600 jobs over the past 12 months, and year-over-year employment gains were positive in all sectors except manufacturing. • Unemployment has decreased 1.1 percent since November 2011, and as of November 2012, is 1.3 percent below state levels. • Home prices increased about 8.6 percent in 2012, but remained 35 percent below the peak levels of 2006, with a median priced home at $397,000, and a mere 50 percent homeownership rate in the metro area compared to 66 percent nationally. • San Diego’s population has increased 5.81 percent since 2008. Projections call for solid 1.5 percent annual growth through 2017. Performance San Diego remains a supply constrained market with a vacancy rate of 5.3 percent countywide, including Class A, B and C product. Coastal and core submarkets routinely log less than 3 percent vacancy. San Diego’s year-over-year rent growth is expected to be 2.2 percent in 2013. It is expected to increase to …
After several years with virtually no new construction of multifamily homes, the Metro Phoenix market looks to rebound with a pipeline of projects that could result in 5,000 to 7,000 new units built per year in 2013, 2014 and 2015. That returns our market to construction levels last seen in 2007. In order to see this volume of construction, developers will need to be successful in raising the required equity, which has been a challenge. At the end of 2012, the Valley had 17 projects (of 50 units or greater) under construction, totaling a little more than 4,200 units. Building on that, we expect to see 15 to 20 projects per year through 2015. This is just a fraction of the more than 20,000 units filling the development pipeline. The demand for all these units, however, will hinge on Phoenix’s population and job growth. It will also be influenced by the national and global economies. Developers are capitalizing on the recent purchases of properties in prime, upscale locations that were not previously considered for strictly rental housing. Alliance Residential, P.B. Bell and JLB have all either begun construction or have plans in the works for rental developments in premium Phoenix …
Well, 2012 has come to an end, the fiscal cliff has been averted for now and the presidential election is behind us. Despite it all, retail sales in the Arizona market seemed to fair reasonably well last year, albeit with markdowns acting as the trigger point for consumers to make those last-minute holiday purchases. With an active 2012 under our belts, the Phoenix market is hoping to outdo itself this year with leasing activity as retailers gear up for cautious expansions, downsizes and relocations. The housing picture for Maricopa County is terrific in terms of inventory being absorbed. Homebuilders are building out improved lots and creating new subdivisions. It is likely that new housing permits, which were positive in 2011, will result in more than 12,000 new homes in 2013. This number should increase steadily for the balance of the decade. This is not to indicate that new retail development will be built anytime soon, but that these numbers may create more of an opportunity to fill existing retail space that has a current vacancy rate of 11.7 percent. Last year, we experienced a positive absorption of 1.03 million square feet, according to CoStar. Therefore, unless a significant amount of …
The San Diego office market continues in the direction of a slow, but steady recovery as we move into 2013. With virtually no new construction of office inventory delivered in 2012, and no projects in the immediate pipeline, the overall occupancy in the county for all office product has risen to about 85 percent. The majority of the leasing activity and positive net absorption has occurred in the Class A market, particularly in the Central San Diego suburban markets. About 85 percent of the absorption over the past three years has been in the Central San Diego office markets, including UTC, Sorrento Mesa, Kearny Mesa and Del Mar Heights. Overall, the Central San Diego office market vacancy sits at 9 percent. As a result, building owners of Class A buildings in these select markets have been able to lower concession packages and hold tight on rents when compared to the previous few years. Lease rates have also stabilized and are poised to increase as the supply tightens for quality space. Class A asking rates had an overall average of $2.58 per square foot (full-service gross) at the end of 2012. This was unchanged from the previous two quarters while Class …
The investment climate for the Phoenix office market is poised to provide compelling acquisition opportunities in 2013. Favorable job growth, improving market fundamentals and assets available at discounts to replacement costs are expected to enhance asset appreciation over the next several years. Phoenix has historically generated strong job growth after recessionary periods. Recent data supports this trend, as Metro Phoenix added 50,700 jobs over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary November 2012 figures. This job growth has lowered the unemployment rate to 6.9 percent as of October 2012, well below the national rate of 7.9 percent. The area is expected to continue adding 50,000 new jobs annually through 2015, driving vacancy rates downward and creating upward pressure on rental rates and property values. Employment growth in professional and business services, and in the financial sector, is of chief importance as a demand generator for office space. Phoenix has also benefited from strong population growth. Metro Phoenix is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year over the next 10 years, a pace that is more than twice that of the national average. Affordable housing, a business-friendly environment and a well-educated …
The San Diego retail market has always been one of the strongest markets in the nation with respect to commercial real estate indicators. Many regions greatly affected by the housing downturn like Las Vegas and Phoenix are still experiencing double-digit retail vacancy rates, while San Diego ended 2012 with an overall vacancy rate of 7.1 percent. Even the overall availability rate dropped to 9.5 percent, down from 9.7 percent last quarter and 10.6 percent at the end of fourth quarter 2011. Since the beginning of 2012, both power centers and community centers have outperformed the rest of the market. Vacancy rates came in at 2.4 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, with both rates representing decreases compared to last quarter and last year. Net absorption for these two products accounted for about 82 percent of the total activity in 2012. Other center types, such as specialty centers and strip centers, have experienced mixed results throughout the year. The drop in vacancy rates can primarily be attributed to basic supply and demand. Many sectors of the retail market are becoming more creative and took advantage of market conditions during the downturn. Discount retailers are expanding in Southern California as Wal-Mart, Dollar Tree …
The Metro Phoenix industrial market has been climbing its way to recovery for the past few years, but the activity of 2012 showed the strongest signs of diversified activity of a healthy marketplace. While overall net leasing was down slightly from 2011, the city benefitted from an abundance of medium and large transactions reflecting many types of industrial users leasing and buying throughout the city. This diversity indicates overall health — and not just in our traditional big box arena. In several strong submarkets, we saw owners pushing back on users’ terms due to improved portfolio and individual property activity. The city’s big box hub of Southwest Phoenix experienced continued strong activity with a variety of notable leases and property sales. We saw a shift to speculative construction and actual groundbreakings taking place on multiple projects. Phoenix has more than 2.6 million square feet of industrial space under construction, with more than 2.2 million of that being situated in the Southwest area. Overall net absorption in that area totaled more than 1.3 million square feet in 2012, leading to a shortage of available large facilities following three years of top eight national leasing and sales activity. The overall net absorption …
The Salt Lake office market will hopefully continue to improve throughout the next year. At the end of the third quarter, overall direct vacancy rates were 13.6 percent, down from the 14.9 percent rate recorded this time last year. Overall asking lease rates for the same period have also seen a slight increase of 41 cents per square foot to the now average asking lease rate of $19.92 per square foot, per year, full service. Although a healthy appetite for Class A office space has dropped vacancy rates in this category to below 10 percent, Class B space lags behind with vacancy rates close to 17 percent as of the end of the third quarter. There has been considerable buzz around the Downtown submarket, due mostly to the new City Creek retail center that was estimated to cost $1.5 billion. The project was developed by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints affiliate City Creek Reserve, in collaboration with their partner Taubman Centers. The retail complex is located in the core of Salt Lake’s CBD and came online in March of this year. Despite this unique development, vacancy rates remain high in this submarket. Overall direct vacancy rates for …
The Pheonix economy is recovering slowly, with accelerating employment growth and rising housing prices outpacing national averages. These drivers have begun to stabilize the local retail market, and with future economic expansion likely going forward, retailers are expected to become more active. In 2013, retailers are forecast to absorb about twice as much space as they did in 2012. While vacancy rates remain above 10 percent in many of the valley’s primary trade areas, the overall retail outlook is more promising than in recent years. Following a pre-recession wave of retail construction, development activity has been limited to just a handful of projects over the past several years. The largest project to deliver in 2012 was the 328,000-square-foot Tanger Outlet Mall at Westgate. The center came online during the fourth quarter almost entirely pre-leased and accounted for about 30 percent of the total net absorption in the West Valley in 2012. No projects of this size are expected to be delivered in 2013, and developers will remain on the sidelines for a few more years before bringing additional shopping centers to the market. With vacancy still elevated throughout much of the valley, the development that occurs in 2013 will likely …