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Western Market Reports

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Market ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Population Growth Drives Development in Southern Nevada

by Jeff Shaw

— By Jeffrey Swinger, Executive Vice President | Las Vegas, Multifamily Investment Sales, Colliers — Las Vegas is on a roll right now, continuing to raise the bar year after year, and we are bullish on the long-term outlook of Southern Nevada’s future. UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research predicts that Southern Nevada’s population will gain 41,900 new residents in 2023 and increase another 2.4 percent in 2024. This wave of growth, coupled with strong local economic activity and enhanced infrastructure investments, has created more jobs and more demand for housing.  With more than $8.12 billion of new major projects delivered in 2023, there is another $2 billion currently under construction with plans to deliver in 2024 and 2025. Additionally, there is another $17.25 billion of announced and proposed projects keeping Las Vegas’s momentum moving forward. Significant projects that were delivered in 2023 include the Fontainebleau, the MSG Sphere and the inaugural Formula 1 Heineken Silver Las Vegas Grand Prix. The Fontainebleau is the latest hotel/casino along the Strip, valued at $3.7 billion, and will add 3,644 rooms to the hotel inventory count. The MSG Sphere is Las Vegas’s newest entertainment venue featuring the largest spherical building in the …

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CaliforniaMarket ReportsWesternWestern Market Reports

Growth Continues in the Mojave River Valley

by Jeff Shaw

— By Joseph W. Brady, CCIM, SIOR, President, The Bradco Companies — A population boom has brought houses, companies and retailers to the High Desert also known as the Mojave River Valley. The “High Desert” used to be a term that referred to one area: the northern region of San Bernardino County that is beyond the Cajon Pass. As such, many other “High Desert” popped up, including the nearby Joshua Tree Area, in addition to namesakes in Arizona, Nevada and Oregon. That led this particular area to be rebranded as the Mojave River Valley, notes Joseph W. Brady, president of The Bradco Companies in Victorville, Calif. As a long-time, 35-year resident, of the Mojave River Valley, he is the longest serving commercial broker in the region.  What is the current state of commercial real estate in the Mojave River Valley?  Retail is rather steady, with each of the cities — Apple Valley, Adelanto, Hesperia, and Victorville — all seizing new opportunities for commercial. Sprouts grocery stores (remodel of the former Toys”R”Us) are coming into Victorville and the Town of Apple Valley. We also have many smaller national tenants that continue to expand in the retail marketplace. Retail vacancy levels continue …

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HawaiiMarket ReportsRetailWesternWestern Market Reports

Navigating Hawaii’s Retail Landscape: Adapting to Shifting Tides

by Jeff Shaw

— By Jon-Eric Greene, Colliers — Hawaii has historically been home to many of the nation’s top grossing retail locations (as measured by gross sales), including one of the highest grossing regional malls in Ala Moana Center, and the world-famous retail street, Kalakaua Avenue in Waikiki. However, since COVID shutdowns, Hawaii retailers and shopping centers have struggled to recover. While the tourism and hotel markets have bounced back, an important visitor demographic — the international shopper — has yet to return. Tourism is Hawaii’s No. 1 industry, with almost every dollar circulating through the economy tracing back to visitors. In 2019, Hawaii welcomed a record 10.4 million visitors. However, in 2020, arrivals plummeted to 2.7 million visitors due to the pandemic. The state experienced rebounded visitor numbers in 2021 and 2022 of 6.8 million and 9.2 million visitors respectively and expected to end 2023 with 9.3 million visitors. The visitor profile has changed dramatically, however, impacting many retailers and shopping centers.  In 2019, around 3 million visitors were international, with over 50 percent (1.58 million) coming from Japan. In 2022, only 900,000 of Hawaii’s 9.2 million visitors were international, including just 192,500 Japanese. So, while overall visitor counts to Hawaii …

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Market ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Steady Activity Continues in the Las Vegas Market, Despite 2024 Headwinds

by Jeff Shaw

— By Paul Sweetland, SIOR, Vice Chairman, Colliers Doherty Industrial Group — Throughout 2023 we were often asked if the Las Vegas industrial market had “missed the memo” on the slowdown since other western markets were experiencing a slowdown that we had yet to see. With record under-construction numbers and net absorption numbers being on pace to finish the year with the second highest total of the last five years, Las Vegas didn’t appear to be slowing down. However, there are certain sectors that show initial signs of a pending change.  Land Sales:  Land sale transactions have seen a 75 percent drop from the prior year. Peak land pricing was $36.00 per land square foot in the summer of 2022, and by the fourth quarter of 2023 it had dropped 25 to 35 percent as demonstrated in the limited closings that occurred. Although lease rates continued to increase, developer underwriting had seen significant changes in exit CAP rates along with debt, equity and construction financing due to an unstable interest rate environment with the Feds continued rate increases at the fastest pace in 40 years. Lower land pricing or significant lease rate increases are going to be necessary for the …

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CaliforniaMarket ReportsOfficeWesternWestern Market Reports

Long Beach Office Market Continues Evolving with New Industries, Growth In Suburbs

by Jeff Shaw

— By Jason Fine, Managing Director, JLL — Situated along the Southern California coast between Los Angeles and Orange County, the City of Long Beach continues to be a strong option for businesses and residents. The city has recently delivered low- and median-income housing, in addition to luxury product, with more of each in the planning stages. This has allowed Long Beach to continue experiencing growth from aerospace, port-related businesses, oil and professional services. A few companies that have recently relocated to Long Beach include Blue Shield, Fluor, Relativity Space, SpinLaunch and Vast. Additionally, the city’s economic development department and newly elected mayor have taken a proactive stance, implementing strategies and marketing the city as a business-friendly destination.  While the regional and national office leasing trend is seeing many tenants going to a hybrid model, the Long Beach office market has seen a steady increase in vacancy and rental rates despite no new office building supply being added to the market since the pandemic. For the third quarter, the total Class A and B office vacancy (including sublease space) for downtown Long Beach is at 33 percent, with rents sitting at $2.71 per square foot, per month (full-service gross). Suburban …

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CaliforniaMarket ReportsMultifamilyWesternWestern Market Reports

Multifamily Investors in Long Beach Navigate Opportunities Amidst Market Adjustments, New Developments

by Jeff Shaw

— By Juan Huizar, President, Sage Real Estate — Nationwide, multifamily sales are declining, while interest rates are rising. Buyers are adopting a patient approach, leading to properties lingering on the market for extended periods. This, of course, is accompanied by noticeable price reductions. Buyers are anticipating further price drops, while some sellers are slowly becoming more realistic in their pricing.  Long Beach has perennially attracted multifamily investors with more than 7,500 individual apartment buildings. This is mainly composed of older housing stock, which creates a fertile ground for investors and syndicators. Often regarded as the last affordable beach city, Long Beach — despite being overshadowed by other Southern California communities or grouped with Los Angeles — stands as a significant population and employment hub, ranking as the sixth-largest city in California. Existing apartment sales for properties with five or more units have plummeted by more than 65 percent. Notably, 2021 was an exceptional year due to a confluence of factors, including rising real estate values and a low cost of capital. The current decline is more a reflection of increased capital costs than a trend over the past decade, with some properties selling for less than their 2019 prices. …

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CaliforniaMarket ReportsRetailWesternWestern Market Reports

Long Beach Sees Retail Challenges in Downtown, Success on Second Street

by Jeff Shaw

— By Jason DuFault, Regional Managing Director – Southern California, KW Commercial — With a population of about 440,000, the City of Long Beach has grown substantially over the past two decades. This is due, in part, to the draw of its coastal location, public spaces, dining and nightlife, employment, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and its many tourist attractions, including the Queen Mary and the Aquarium of the Pacific. This all bodes well for the retail sector. However, over the past 18 months, the retail market has been inconsistent for success based on location.  The city’s overall vacancy rate is currently around 4.3 percent, with the most challenged market being downtown Long Beach, which is currently at 4.6 percent. While the vacancy is still low by most standards, I believe it will likely increase before it gets better. Like many CBDs across the nation, Long Beach’s office vacancy has been high. The decline in the daytime population has retailers struggling. The most challenging projects to rent out retail-wise seem to be the newer vintage mixed-use properties. On the other hand, smaller submarkets in east Long Beach, such as Second Street and Naples, have been strong, giving …

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Market ReportsNevadaRetailWesternWestern Market Reports

Job Growth, Tourism Create Opportunities for Northern Nevada Retail

by Jeff Shaw

— By Tad Loran, Vice President, Retail Specialist, Avison Young | Western Alliance Commercial Inc. — The Northern Nevada retail sector has made quite a comeback post-pandemic as both the population and job market expand.  The retail vacancy rate ended last year at 4.7 percent and increased 20 basis points to a current level of 4.9 percent, while market rent increased from $1.70 to $1.83 on a monthly basis for the same period. South Virginia, Meadowood, South Reno and the North Valleys are all recipients of a thriving market. Tenants that have recently entered the region or are expanding in Northern Nevada include Petco, Panera Bread, Colombia Sportswear, Voodoo Brewing Company, the Human Bean, Starbucks, Cracker Barrel, Mountain Mike Pizza, Take 5 Oil Change, AutoZone and Five Below. Tenants with recent closures include Bed Bath & Beyond, Lucky Brand Jeans, Tuesday Morning, Steak ‘n Shake, Sizzler Steakhouse and Claim Jumper.   Unemployment in Nevada increased to 4.4 percent in July 2023 from 3.5 percent in December 2022. Even though there was an increase, this continued low unemployment rate has created a challenging labor market with employers lacking the necessary labor pool to grow. Unfortunately, this shortage has led to some prospective new businesses …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Tourism to Operations: Reno’s Robust Industrial Market

by Jeff Shaw

— By Justin Basie President of Real Estate, Mark IV Capital — While the Reno-Sparks Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is best known for its gaming-tourism industry, its location in Northern Nevada also appeals to fans of the outdoors.  In addition, Reno’s diversified economy readily attracts Fortune 500 companies that are targeting the area for their manufacturing and distribution efforts. This, in turn, drives the massive growth of Northern Nevada’s industrial sector, generating overwhelming demand for warehouse, logistics and manufacturing space in the region.  The following fundamentals have positioned Northern Nevada and the Reno-Sparks MSA as ideal destinations for logistics, manufacturing and other industrial activities: • Population Proximity The MSA is conveniently located within a one-day trip of major West Coast cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland, Ore. Thanks to an efficient infrastructure network that includes major highways, two railways and the Reno-Tahoe International Airport, companies can reach a vast 80 percent of the Western U.S. population in less than 24 hours.  • Business-Friendly Climate Nevada is consistently ranked as a top 10 state for conducting business because of its pro-business regulatory environment, low-cost start-up fees, and streamlined licensing and approval processes. Nevada also offers a favorable tax environment for …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Reno-Sparks Industrial Market is Stable, Despite 2023 Headwinds

by Jeff Shaw

— By Nick Knecht, Vice President, DCG Industrial — The industrial real estate market in Northern Nevada demonstrated stability over the first three quarters of 2023.  Sales performance year to date through the third quarter was steady, with industrial sales volume reaching $116 million. This represents a 42 percent increase compared to the same period in 2022. This should keep the market on track for a decent year, despite falling slightly short of its historical averages.  Notably, the shift in buyer dynamics caused by the rise in interest rates, which have soared as high as 8 percent, has investors sticking to a more conservative approach to their underwriting. Owner-users have emerged as the primary drivers of sale activity, and were the buyers of all four closed sales in September. Prices are beginning to soften, and price reductions are occurring more frequently, which is expected to improve buying opportunities for investors over the next 12 to 18 months.  Leasing activity has been concentrated in the 10,000- to 50,000-square-foot range, which captured 44 percent of the third quarter’s lease transactions, and similarly 38 percent in the 5,000- to 10,000-square-foot range. Lease rates have remained relatively stable since the first quarter, with Class A …

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