WASHINGTON — U.S. commercial property transaction volume is expected to decline over the next three years to $475 billion in 2018, according to a new economic forecast from the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The latest ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, a semi-annual outlook, is based on a survey of 48 of the industry’s top economists and analysts representing 36 of the country’s leading real estate investment, advisory and research firms and organizations. The survey provides forecasts on broad economic indicators such as real estate capital markets, property investment returns, vacancy and rental rates and housing starts and prices. The recently released consensus forecast calls for continued economic expansion over the next three years, but at a somewhat slower pace than the prior two years. It also anticipates continued commercial price appreciation and positive returns, but at more subdued and decelerating rates, and above average but decelerating rent growth rates in all property sectors. “Compared to six months ago, real estate researchers are predicting slower economic growth, slipping real estate fundamentals and lower returns from both the public and private markets,” says William Maher, ULI leader, survey participant and director of North American strategy for …
