By Nicole Schmidt, managing partner, Oberon Securities Whether it’s traditional bank loans, private equity or securitized financings, it’s clear that a large number of commercial property owners are facing serious credit issues. Many office tenants continued making rent payments even through COVID-19, and the work from home trend has now left them with excess space. But as leases expire, they are downsizing their physical footprints, leaving landlords with significant vacancies amid very soft demand. According to a November 2023 article in The Wall Street Journal, “Only one out of every three securitized office mortgages that expired during the first nine months of 2023 was paid off by the end of September, according to Moody’s Analytics. That is the smallest share for the first nine months of any year since at least 2008 and well below the nadir reached in 2009, when 47 percent of these loans got paid off.” Add to that the impact of WeWork’s recent bankruptcy filing and projected high office vacancy rates in New York City and other major markets — plus higher interest rates — and the inevitable result is lower valuations that don’t support existing levels of debt on many properties. Higher vacancy rates, higher …
