Retail

The recent Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapses — and the takeover of First Republic Bank — have revived regulatory scrutiny on bank risk to a degree that is reminiscent of the financial crisis 15 years ago. Suddenly, it seems, everyone is concerned about the trillions of dollars in commercial real estate debt held at banks — and regional and community banks in particular — and whether it can be refinanced at higher interest rates as it matures over the next couple of years. The same holds for hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial mortgage-backed securities. The conditions are exacerbating a pullback in credit that started last year, which, along with the elevated interest rate environment, has depressed commercial real estate investment sales. In February, property sales dropped 51 percent, from $54.9 billion to $26.9 billion from a year earlier, according to MSCI Real Assets. Taken together, the wall of maturities, higher interest rates, bank collapses and a slumping economy have largely spooked the investment market, suggests Spencer Lund, chief investment officer with NAI Legacy in Minneapolis, Minn. (which also serves Chicago, Denver and Scottsdale, Ariz.) Still, it’s also the type of environment that breeds opportunity as prices …