RED Capital Group Archives - REBusinessOnline

Cleveland, Milwaukee & St. Louis Multifamily Forecasts Indicate Case for Caution

Sarah Daniels — Fri, 20 Nov 2020 03:03:07 +0000

In earlier research, we found that investors may find advantageous risk and reward tradeoffs during the pandemic in often overlooked Midwest secondary markets. For the most part, average rent and occupancy metrics in these markets continued to rise throughout the summer, recession notwithstanding. Together, their inviting cap rates, rising NOI and low historic income volatility form a fairly compelling investment predicate. We also found that positive performance attributes were not limited to the region’s most robust economies. Even metropolitan markets that have experienced slow demographic growth — like Cincinnati and Detroit — posted surprisingly good revenue growth. Can the same logic be extended to metropolitan areas experiencing actual demographic decline? A review of recent trends in three “high-yield” markets with negative population growth – Cleveland, Milwaukee and St. Louis – shed some light on the question. View higher resolution version of chart above here. With respect to occupancy, the answer is yes. In fact, property level data published by Yardi suggest that market conditions in each of these metro areas has been constructive since February. Between February and October, average occupancy among stabilized same-store property samples increased by 14 basis points in Cleveland and 10 bps in St. Louis, in…

The post Cleveland, Milwaukee & St. Louis Multifamily Forecasts Indicate Case for Caution appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Slow and Steady Wins the Race: The Case for Multifamily in Cincinnati and Detroit

Sarah Daniels — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 15:36:25 +0000

Investors favor multifamily markets with brisk population growth and meaningful barriers to entry. But can a case be made in turbulent times for slow-growth Midwest cities characterized by weak entry barriers? View higher resolution version of chart above here. Midwest metro areas with relatively healthy demographic growth — Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City come to mind — have posted constructive performance trends during the pandemic recession so far, particularly with respect to rent. Among the 10 largest Midwest markets, Columbus recorded the fastest rent growth over the past three years (18.2 percent, according to Yardi Matrix) and nearly the fastest since the beginning of the pandemic (2.9 percent between February and October). Indeed, Columbus, Indianapolis (2.7 percent) and Kansas City (2.3 percent) respectively recorded the third, fourth and sixth fastest rent trends in the region since February, and each readily topped the -1.1 percent U.S. primary and secondary market average. The fastest rent growth in the region, however, was recorded by two metro areas not blessed with brisk population growth — Cincinnati and Detroit. Between February and October all property rents increased 3.0 percent in Cincinnati and 3.4 percent in Detroit, figures exceeded in only a handful of markets nationally.…

The post Slow and Steady Wins the Race: The Case for Multifamily in Cincinnati and Detroit appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Secondary Midwest Markets: Investor Refuge or Flavor of the Month?

Sarah Daniels — Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:20:38 +0000

More than a few column inches in multifamily media this year were dedicated to the implications of coronavirus on the housing preferences of renter households. Many theorize that the pandemic is leading householders to reexamine their attachment to urban life and consider suburban alternatives that offer larger floor plans, better schools, free parking and unit access without an elevator ride. Available data suggest there is something to this notion. Occupancy and rent in core urban neighborhoods in the primary markets have declined, substantially in the highest-cost cities. Suburban performance, by contrast, is strengthening. What is less certain is whether the same phenomenon is working to the benefit of secondary markets as well as big city suburbs. The jury is still out but investors already have stepped up acquisitions in the Sunbelt growth markets to exploit the opportunity — Austin and Phoenix were among the nine most active property markets in the third quarter, and Raleigh and Charlotte were just a step behind – but what of the staid and stable Midwest? Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City (the “Midwest Three”) stand out among Midwest cities as the secondary markets most likely to attract gateway city refugees. Each offers renters most of…

The post Secondary Midwest Markets: Investor Refuge or Flavor of the Month? appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

The Twin Cities: An Unlikely Shelter in Turbulent Multifamily Markets

Sarah Daniels — Tue, 27 Oct 2020 13:52:17 +0000

The Minneapolis metropolitan area made plenty of headlines in 2020, and much of the news wasn’t good. The social fabric was frayed, and property damage estimated at between $250 million and $500 million ensued. On the surface, the Twin Cities appear unlikely sources of stability and relative safety for multifamily investors, and yet market performance and property value trends have so far proven resilient in the face of adversity. In comparison to many of the primary markets and its regional rival, Chicago, Minneapolis has navigated the effects of the pandemic recession remarkably well and may represent an attractive option for investors who remain committed to the urban mid-rise model, as well as those considering increased exposure to suburban situations. The Minneapolis economy was by no means immune to the effects of public health-related lockdowns. Payroll employment plunged by 270,000 jobs in March and April, representing about 13.3 percent of the February metro total. Although severe, pandemic losses fell below the national average (U.S. payrolls fell 14.6 percent) and were comparable to those recorded in Chicago and Milwaukee. Since April, the Minneapolis labor market has made considerable headway. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.9 percent in August, materially lower than the…

The post The Twin Cities: An Unlikely Shelter in Turbulent Multifamily Markets appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Investors Seek Safe Harbor in Chicago’s Apartment Market

Sarah Daniels — Wed, 14 Oct 2020 12:30:49 +0000

Multifamily investors prefer to concentrate capital in the primary markets. Although prices are steep and cap rates low, the gateway cities offer private equity and institutional buyers the young, affluent tenants, economic diversification, deep trough of performance data and property market liquidity that can’t be found in smaller cities. Gateway cities offer these assets…until they don’t. The pandemic recession has turned the usual way of looking at things upside down. At least for the moment, tenants are fleeing the high costs and perceived dangers of dense urban living for the relative safety and larger floor plans found in suburbs and, in some cases, secondary and tertiary markets. The impact on property performance is significant. In the modern urban mid- and high-rise buildings favored by large portfolio investors, occupancy and rents are down materially, trimming forward-looking net operating income 15 percent or more in many Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco buildings. Determining fair asset value is nearly impossible under the circumstances. Buyers still may be willing to bid at prices generating deeply sub-4 percent initial yields but only against conservatively underwritten NOI levels that discount an extended period of performance weakness. Few owners are willing to realize the resulting…

The post Investors Seek Safe Harbor in Chicago’s Apartment Market appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Rents Weaken, Investors Stay Active in San Diego Multifamily Market

Sarah Daniels — Mon, 05 Oct 2020 12:00:40 +0000

By Daniel J. Hogan The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt more severely in Southern California than in most areas of the country. The Southland’s high concentration of employment in the tourism and entertainment sectors made it especially vulnerable to the effects of social distancing protocols and the reluctance of many to board commercial aircraft. Not only were job losses particularly acute in the initial months of the pandemic — the subsequent recovery has been lethargic. The rate of unemployment for July in each of the four large Southern California metropolitan markets remained materially above the national average, and in the case of Los Angeles County (18.2 percent) was the highest of any metropolitan area west of the Hudson River save for Yuma and El Centro. As it always has, Southern California will recover and is likely to do so in even more spectacular fashion than before. In the interim, how can multifamily investors position themselves to prosper? San Diego is the ideal market to scrutinize possible changes in renter behavior during the pandemic and consider their potential investment implications. Indeed, a deep dive into this market may provide clues to some of the great mysteries of…

The post Rents Weaken, Investors Stay Active in San Diego Multifamily Market appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector

Sarah Daniels — Thu, 24 Sep 2020 12:00:18 +0000

Orange County offers residents all the key elements of the American dream. Its virtues are numerous and faults few. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics ranks the quality of life in the OC 10th highest among the 378 U.S. metros it reports on, just a half-step behind leaders Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. Orange County is a terrific place to live, but is it a good place to invest? Gauging by observed capitalization rate trends, one may conclude that county apartment properties are highly prized gems. Class A trophy properties trade to going-in yields in the 4.00 percent to 4.10 percent area, and Class B and C garden complexes are typically priced to yields in the mid-4s, all only 25 basis points or so behind Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area comparisons. But judging from transaction velocity, one might draw a different conclusion. Only six Orange County multifamily properties of 50 units or more have changed hands since mid-year 2019, and not a single sale has closed since February. Even by the cautious norms of the moment, this stands out as a market in search of price discovery. Slow transaction velocity can be ascribed, in part, to the prevailing buy and…

The post In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

The Inland Empire: A Rare 2020 Apartment Sector Success Story

Sarah Daniels — Tue, 15 Sep 2020 12:00:29 +0000

Someone once remarked that eighty percent of success in life is just showing up. Human experience verifies that being in the right place at the right time often is the intangible ingredient that leads to triumph. The strong performance this year of the Inland Empire multifamily market is a variation on this theme. During the pandemic, many renters sought refuge from the high density and high costs associated with big city life, and the work-from-home phenomenon made this objective feasible. For many Angelinos, Empire living was the best solution — close enough to Los Angeles to maintain contact with family and friends or to go into the office when necessary but substantially less densely settled and more affordable than most L.A. neighborhoods. By way of quantification, the average Riverside and San Bernardino County monthly rent in July was about $1,578 — and that is 28 percent less than the L.A. County average. The percentage savings for Class A space were about 1 percent greater, and parking, an omnipresent issue for Southern Californians, is typically free. The cost economies found in the Empire are more than trivial. Moreover, renters are more likely than in the past to find the unit and…

The post The Inland Empire: A Rare 2020 Apartment Sector Success Story appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Coming Attraction: The Great Los Angeles Multifamily Recovery

Sarah Daniels — Wed, 09 Sep 2020 12:00:07 +0000

Reducing the Los Angeles economy to the entertainment industry would be a serious mistake. In fact, the L.A. labor market is highly diversified with world-class healthcare, professional services, biotech and technology clusters providing co-sector leadership — no one-trick pony is this. Nonetheless, the entertainment industry is the single element that separates this metro economy from all others, and its tentacles are long. In its absence, the metro’s financial and professional services, tourism and digital media sectors might seem almost ordinary. Hollywood content production has been curtailed dramatically by social distancing demands. Active filming in the second quarter plummeted 98 percent from the year before, according to nonprofit industry group FilmLA. This has a devastating effect on thousands of employees on industry payrolls and many times more freelancers, sole proprietors and contract employees that make up the bulk of the film and TV industry’s creative workers. Consequently, the L.A. labor market absorbed among the hardest blows dealt by COVID-19. Although second quarter L.A. County payroll employment declined only 12.4 percent year on year, in line with outcomes observed in the Bay Area and San Diego, total employment — a government statistic that includes the self-employed and gig economy workers — plunged…

The post Coming Attraction: The Great Los Angeles Multifamily Recovery appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Rumors of the Death of Silicon Valley’s Apartment Market are Greatly Exaggerated

Sarah Daniels — Mon, 24 Aug 2020 14:54:12 +0000

Some stories are just too good not to be true. This may explain in part the outpouring of reports regarding population outflows from the San Francisco Bay Area. Multiple mid-August articles in national newspapers took up the ongoing Silicon Valley exodus. These articles make a convincing case that the COVID-19 pandemic and increased opportunities to work remotely — particularly in the high-tech industry — are prompting many Bay Area residents to consider relocating to more affordable areas, even if remote work causes their incomes to decline. The evidence supporting the theory is by no means entirely anecdotal. The number of owners listing homes for sale has increased significantly, the pace of home price appreciation has decelerated materially (less than 5 percent in May) and apartment rents and occupancy have eroded since winter. It is hard to deny that Peak Northern California is fading in the rearview mirror. This should be no surprise. The Bay Area is not only the most expensive real estate market in the country, it also is one of the most congested. Its many virtues come with a steep price tag, not only in terms of cost of living but also in aspects lumped in the quality…

The post Rumors of the Death of Silicon Valley’s Apartment Market are Greatly Exaggerated appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

San Francisco Multifamily Trends: The Downside of Demand Inelasticity

Sarah Daniels — Thu, 13 Aug 2020 12:57:33 +0000

In economics, the sensitivity of aggregate demand for a product or service to changes in price is defined as its “elasticity.” The elasticity of demand for nonessential goods or goods with a number of ready substitutes is high. Even a small increase in price will produce a large decrease in demand. Conversely, a relatively large price change in the cost of an essential or prized luxury good for which few substitutes exist may have little effect on demand for it. San Francisco real estate is a highly inelastic good. The Bay Area’s potent combination of natural beauty, sublime climate and unique culture make it one of the most coveted destinations in the world. By the same token, its compact size, high population density, seismic risks and antipathy to development constrain supply. For all practical purposes, housing prices are limited by the income that residents can expect to earn rather than the normal interplay of producers and consumers. The innovation and wealth creation generated by the high tech industry added a complex new variable to the equation. More wealth was created during the last 10 years in the 40 miles that lie between the Golden Gate and San Jose than in…

The post San Francisco Multifamily Trends: The Downside of Demand Inelasticity appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Portland, Oregon Multifamily Fundamentals Wobble, but Remain Healthy Overall in June

Sarah Daniels — Thu, 30 Jul 2020 12:00:24 +0000

Five months into the pandemic, fissures are beginning to form in the foundation of the multifamily market. Through the spring leasing season, liquidity from enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and a yearning for stability in uncertain times were enough to maintain occupancy near pre-coronavirus levels and to provide something of a buttress for rents. As spring turned to summer, however, winds seemed to change direction, tenant patience began to fray and property performance waned. West Coast cities with high technology exposure were the first to exhibit material revenue attrition. Reduced employment and income prospects led many renters to reconsider the efficacy of paying the highest rents in the country. Many tenants chose instead to relocate to more affordable areas when leases expired (as many do during the spring leasing season) or simply vacated and broke existing leases. Rents in the San Francisco Bay Area have declined by about 4 percent since the beginning of the year, and as much as 9 percent over the last 12 months. More affordable markets, including Portland, also experienced softening, but to a lesser degree. While fleeing tenants apparently generated a “renter’s market” in San Francisco, absorption in a sample of 919 Portland properties surveyed by…

The post Portland, Oregon Multifamily Fundamentals Wobble, but Remain Healthy Overall in June appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Seattle Could Provide Template for National Multifamily Recovery

Sarah Daniels — Tue, 21 Jul 2020 15:56:15 +0000

In the realm of apartment market research, Seattle represents a bellwether of sorts these days, where broader trends and themes can be parsed. Seattle’s economy, population and real estate landscape have grown at rates previously considered impossible in a primary market. The city stands at the veritable intersection of technological and generational change — the corner of Large Cap Tech Boulevard and Millennial Street — and it has developed into the avatar of the infill, wood-frame mid-rise design touchpoint that defines so much of today’s urban apartment architecture. What happens here will reveal some of the trends likely to follow in similar markets — from Raleigh to Portland. Seattle was also the first major U.S. metropolitan market to grapple with the novel coronavirus, so the path that it follows will provide some insight into how the American multifamily market will mutate as we adjust to “life in the time of COVID,” to borrow a note from Garcia Marquez. By the same token, the Jet City faces the prospect of digesting an enormous multifamily supply pipeline that was, for the most part, conceived for the pre-COVID-19 world. The manner in which this supply is absorbed will speak volumes about how the…

The post Seattle Could Provide Template for National Multifamily Recovery appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Revenue Volatility: Friend or Foe to San Antonio Multifamily Investors?

Sarah Daniels — Tue, 14 Jul 2020 13:39:57 +0000

During the great multifamily bull market of this passing decade, investors became increasingly comfortable with exposure to highly volatile metropolitan markets. In an era when it was difficult to make a bad investment decision, the most lucrative were, in most cases, located in areas of the country known for their roller-coaster real estate cycles. Indeed, it seemed as though a purchase capitalization rate could never be too low if an asset was located in one of the primary markets. Volatility was an ally, not a foe — an investment feature, not a bug. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and its attendant recession, however, volatility appears to have switched allegiances. The winds now favor, perhaps, the stable, predictable tortoises over the high-flying hares. In high-cost markets, the number of renters considering relocating to more affordable area codes has skyrocketed, and in the work-from-home era, this has become more of an achievable goal than an inchoate urge. For example, the San Francisco Apartment Association reported that 7.5 percent of tenants in the city — where rents increased at a 6.1 percent compound annual rate since 2010 — simply broke their leases in the three months that ended in May, moving…

The post Revenue Volatility: Friend or Foe to San Antonio Multifamily Investors? appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Austin: The Right Place at the Right Time for Multifamily Sector

Sarah Daniels — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 12:00:27 +0000

“After COVID-19, nothing ever will be the same,” has become a common refrain these days. Perhaps for the next decade or so, every important life choice will be made with public health and safety concerns in mind — and the most commonly chosen solutions will be meaningfully different than before. Among the most fundamental life choices subject to this new scrutiny will be where to live, how to make a living and how to safely move about. Many Americans will opt for less densely populated neighborhoods, increased work-from-home opportunities and private transportation options. When the time arrives to put plans into action, however, most will elect to take small steps rather than a giant leap. Perhaps the high-rise apartment and subway ride to a co-working space can be sacrificed, but not at the expense of convenience, access to nightlife and entertainment and career prospects. Urbanity isn’t out of style, but its form will mutate. Some U.S. metros will struggle to adapt, including a few primary markets. Others seem to be attuned to the times, blessed with all of the now prized attributes already in place. None is more perfectly positioned than Austin. Austin checks all the boxes. It is less…

The post Austin: The Right Place at the Right Time for Multifamily Sector appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Weak Oil Price Outlook Puts Houston Multifamily Sector Back on Its Heels

Sarah Daniels — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 12:00:34 +0000

Houston is less reliant on the oil and gas industry than it once was, and considerable strides have been made to diversify the economy away from the oil patch. Still, the hard reality remains: Houston’s prosperity and hydrocarbons are intrinsically linked. Decoupling one from the other will be devilishly difficult. The world will derive the preponderance of its energy from oil and gas for decades to come, but market share will continue to diminish, and oil and gas revenue inevitably will stagnate and decline. Developing alternative economic drivers will be challenging, but Houston has the benefit of time on its side. However, the current coronavirus crisis is negatively impacting oil prices and therefore the Houston economy in the near term. Following the shutdown of the global economy to fight COVID-19, the price of a barrel of crude plunged from over $60 — well above the marginal replacement cost from East Texas fields — to less than $20. Although prices recovered to the mid-$30 range recently, they remain below the marginal cost of discovering and extracting a replacement barrel, annulling the incentive to prospect for new reserves or build additional refining and transportation capacity. Indeed, the Houston economy was impacted more…

The post Weak Oil Price Outlook Puts Houston Multifamily Sector Back on Its Heels appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Recession Pays an Unwelcome Visit to Dallas Multifamily Sector

Sarah Daniels — Wed, 10 Jun 2020 12:00:05 +0000

Some places in America are painfully accustomed to economic setbacks. Dallas isn’t among them. This growth market prototype has elevated expansion to an art form and won’t suffer recession gladly. But happily or not, Dallas must share with the rest of the nation the unanticipated discomfort of our pandemic disaster. How is it likely to respond, and what are the ramifications for multifamily investors? It is said that everything is bigger in Texas, and Dallas job losses in the first months of the COVID-19 lockdown definitely were “on brand.” Payroll employment declined nearly 300,000 jobs in March and April, and the unemployment rate, which never before surpassed 9 percent, soared to 12.8 percent in April. The night is darkest before the dawn, however, and the latest national job numbers suggest the sun is near the eastern horizon. If recent history is any guide Dallas will be one of the first to recover and among the quickest to return to pre-coronavirus strength. Indeed, the metro labor market recovered about six months before the nation following both the 1992 and 2009 recessions, and job growth returned to pre-recession levels about 12 months later, a process that took the nation nearly two years…

The post Recession Pays an Unwelcome Visit to Dallas Multifamily Sector appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

RED Mortgage Capital Provides $11.4M Refinancing for Multifamily Community Near Columbus, Ohio

Kristin Harlow — Tue, 09 Jun 2020 13:49:46 +0000

REYNOLDSBURG, OHIO — RED Mortgage Capital, a division of ORIX Real Estate Capital, has provided an $11.4 million Freddie Mac loan for the refinancing of Redwood Reynoldsburg in suburban Columbus. Formerly known as Blacklick Pointe, the 89-unit multifamily community consists of 20 one-story buildings. Each residence has an attached two-car garage. Built in 2018, the property is 94.4 percent occupied. Reynoldsburg One LLC was the borrower. The 10-year loan features a 30-year amortization schedule.

The post RED Mortgage Capital Provides $11.4M Refinancing for Multifamily Community Near Columbus, Ohio appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

How Will Tampa’s Multifamily Market Compare to Other Growth Markets Post-COVID-19?

Sarah Daniels — Thu, 28 May 2020 12:30:57 +0000

It may be premature for multifamily investors to come off the sidelines and back into the acquisition fray. Still, the outlines of the post-pandemic landscape are growing clearer, and the hour draws near when owners and buyers must consider the buy/sell/hold mathematics of the future. Tampa presents a model for the unique economic factors likely to influence the nationwide multifamily sector. The initial phase of the post-pandemic analysis is likely to focus on the anticipated performance of “growth markets.” This category of metropolitan areas is characterized by a relative dearth of spatial and regulatory barriers to entry, lower land costs and lower business operating costs than the primary markets, as well as a demonstrated ability to support faster sustained employment and population growth than the national average. Historically, growth markets (e.g., Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa) have facilitated volatile real estate cycles, featuring rapid growth during boom times, followed by often painful supply-driven corrections during periods of economic weakness. Apartment capitalization rates discounted the relative riskiness of their NOI streams accordingly, pricing growth market assets to going-in yields 75 basis points or more above comparable assets in the primary markets. The long multifamily bull market of the passing decade altered this…

The post How Will Tampa’s Multifamily Market Compare to Other Growth Markets Post-COVID-19? appeared first on REBusinessOnline.

Cresting Wave of Job Losses Upends Miami Multifamily Sector

Sarah Daniels — Tue, 05 May 2020 11:00:45 +0000

How will the COVID-19 fallout impact the Miami multifamily market? Although many investors are approaching markets known for leisure travel and cruise industries with caution these days, RED Mortgage Capital research posted last week indicates Fort Lauderdale/Broward County may offer a more attractive risk and reward profile than is commonly understood in the intermediate term, even under severe recessionary stress. Can the same be said of Miami as many of the same arguments apply? Let us stipulate that coronavirus has struck Magic City a particularly sharp blow. Miami relies on international tourism to a larger degree than most other domestic travel destinations and has experienced greater tourism revenue and job losses as a result. Travel industry consultants STR analyzed the top 25 tourist destinations in America and noted that Miami hotels recorded the largest decline in average daily hotel room rates in April (-56.8 percent from 2019), while the metro area’s hotel occupancy plunged to 20 percent from 95 percent in 2019. Employment data are available only through March at this writing, but even at this early stage, job losses were severe. The Miami-Miami Beach metropolitan division employed population fell 86,000 in March, a one-month decline of 6.5 percent. Job…

The post Cresting Wave of Job Losses Upends Miami Multifamily Sector appeared first on REBusinessOnline.