Retail

By Glenn Brill, managing director, FTI Consulting Inc. Despite the growth of e-commerce as consumer expenditures and retailers adapt to omni-channel sales, digital marketing strategies and shifts in consumer behaviors resulting from COVID-19, most shoppers still go to stores. Eighty-six percent of consumer sales take place in a brick-and-mortar store environment, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s second-quarter e-commerce retail sales report. Still, upscale retailers are increasingly consolidating local market share into exclusively Class A retail properties. The death of the shopping mall is widely discussed and perhaps greatly exaggerated; high-end malls continue to find success as upscale consumers unleash pent-up demand and savings accumulated during the pandemic. However, due in large part to stagnant middle-class incomes and the struggles of stalwart anchors of middle-class consumption like J.C. Penney and Sears — as well as the general decline of department stores — many Class B and C malls have been left to compete with each other for declining shares of middle-market tenants in oversaturated markets. According to CoStar Group, U.S. mall properties had a vacancy rate of approximately 7.3 percent as of August 2021, representing the fourth consecutive annual increase. In an August report, Coresight Research estimated that 25 …