It may be premature for multifamily investors to come off the sidelines and back into the acquisition fray. Still, the outlines of the post-pandemic landscape are growing clearer, and the hour draws near when owners and buyers must consider the buy/sell/hold mathematics of the future. Tampa presents a model for the unique economic factors likely to influence the nationwide multifamily sector. The initial phase of the post-pandemic analysis is likely to focus on the anticipated performance of “growth markets.” This category of metropolitan areas is characterized by a relative dearth of spatial and regulatory barriers to entry, lower land costs and lower business operating costs than the primary markets, as well as a demonstrated ability to support faster sustained employment and population growth than the national average. Historically, growth markets (e.g., Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa) have facilitated volatile real estate cycles, featuring rapid growth during boom times, followed by often painful supply-driven corrections during periods of economic weakness. Apartment capitalization rates discounted the relative riskiness of their NOI streams accordingly, pricing growth market assets to going-in yields 75 basis points or more above comparable assets in the primary markets. The long multifamily bull market of the passing decade altered this …
