Population growth is a direct result of the lifestyle advantages we enjoy in the Triangle region, which include our mild climate as well as educational opportunities and future employment options. People continue to move to the area, with approximately 225,000 new citizens expected by 2015. These new citizens expect jobs and recent estimates indicated an increase of approximately 12,500 jobs in 2012. It’s not the high job growth of the late ’90s through mid-2000, but it was an improvement over the last three years. With so many new people coming to the Triangle, and many unable to sell their homes in depressed markets, the need for apartments has grown considerably. The Triangle apartment market has been on fire with the latest report indicating a vacancy rate of 5.5 percent. In addition almost 6,000 apartment units are currently under construction. The combination of population growth, housing demands and disposable income are key ingredients to our vibrant retail market. In 2011, there was an increase in retail construction of approximately 900,000 square feet, resulting in minimal absorption and continued vacancy at 6 percent. In 2012, construction dropped to just over 300,000 square feet and despite vacancies in strip centers, overall vacancy dropped …
North Carolina
The Charlotte, N.C., apartment market is well into its recovery; 2012 proved to be a strong year with improving fundamentals, healthy transaction volume and the formation of a robust new development pipeline. The exceptional year that Charlotte experienced in 2012 was not fully anticipated at year’s end 2011. However, MPF Research’s second quarter report (July 2012) showed Charlotte’s year-over-year rent growth at 6.8 percent, placing it third in the top 10 markets for rent growth nationally (of the top 50 national markets). This trend was reinforced by MPF’s third quarter publication which reported year-over-year rent growth of 6.3 percent. This marked the fourth straight quarter of year-over-year rent growth in excess of 6 percent. In addition, the report showed overall market occupancy levels of 95.9 percent, the second highest achieved in 14 years. Such favorable news serves as confirmation that the Charlotte economy has remained strong through the financial crisis, as banking sector jobs have remained largely intact and the overall economy of Charlotte is more diverse than many once thought. As a result of the favorable market dynamics, Charlotte’s visibility amidst the national investment landscape has increased, causing investors, developers and lenders alike to take note. Charlotte has quickly …
The Charlotte multifamily market continues its strong recovery and shows no signs of slowing down. All facets of the multifamily market are improving with tightening apartment fundamentals, increased transactional volume and the announcement of several high-profile development projects. According to RealPage MPF Research, the Charlotte market has experienced 6.8 percent rent growth during the past 12 months, which ranks third in the country behind only San Francisco and San José, California. The market has also absorbed more than 3,300 units in the same time period, lowering the overall market’s vacancy to approximately 6.5 percent — the lowest vacancy figure seen in Charlotte in more than a decade. Transaction volume in the Charlotte metro, while only half of the activity level in the Triangle market, has been relatively strong with approximately $800 million in sales during the past 12 months. Capital sources continue to flock to the highest-grade assets, particularly infill locations, where historically low interest rates boost investor returns. A recent illustration of this trend was Atlanta-based Post Properties’ purchase of the 360-unit Circle at South End from Crescent Resources for $74 million or $205,556 per unit, a record per-unit price for a garden-style community in the Carolinas. On the …
The return of development in the Raleigh-Durham apartment market should not be surprising to anyone familiar with the market, and neither should the pace of development, which leads the nation when judged by some metrics. Raleigh-Durham has become one of the most popular markets in the nation for investment over the last decade due mostly to its high-growth status. The Triangle’s existing inventory is relatively young which is appealing to a large number of investors seeking newer product, and this has propelled investment activity. More than $1.2 billion worth of apartments have traded in Raleigh-Durham since the beginning of 2011. Prospects of continued job and population growth are promising, and an analysis of these local trends indicate a need for new development that meets the changing preferences of renters in one of the nation’s fastest growing markets. Currently, 3,453 new units in 12 communities are under development in the Triangle. This accounts for 3.2 percent of current inventory of nearly 108,000 units. An additional 3,733 units are likely to break ground within the next 18 months. These projects generally represent the most desirable sites within their respective submarkets, are led by well-capitalized developers, and, in most cases, are backed by …
The Raleigh/Durham industrial market finished 2011 with substantially increased activity within the warehouse sector. Capital markets activity continues to be particularly strong for Class A institutional grade product, and leasing velocity seems to be finding its legs. The increased volume of deal flow is likely to set the stage for continued improvement through 2012. Investment sales activity has been particularly robust during the past 18 months with more than 3.1 million square feet of institutional grade industrial space trading hands for more than $209 million in value. Cap rates for institutional grade product in the Raleigh-Durham market have fallen significantly since the credit crisis in 2008, but have begun to level off in the low 7 percent range. Duke Realty has been the most active buyer of industrial product in the region. Since September of last year, it has acquired nearly 1 million square feet in three transactions totaling $61.4 million, and is now the largest owner of institutional industrial space in the market. Most notable was its acquisition of the Greenfield North portfolio in Garner, North Carolina, for $31 million. Through this acquisition, Duke has virtually cornered the fast growing East Wake market for Class A warehouse space. Leasing …
Raleigh salutes 2011 as a year of improvement and we welcome 2012 with great optimism. In September of last year, Raleigh received Bloomberg Businessweek’s “No. 1 American City” accolade, which is a measure of the “all-around excellence” of a region. The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators, a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, rose in October, the first gain in the Index since June. All of the North Carolina-based components of the Index improved, with the leader being a 31 percent jump in building permits, according to Michael Walden, distinguished professor of economics at North Carolina State University in Raleigh. As the economy continues to improve and jobs increase, absorption will take additional existing vacant space. The cities of Raleigh, Cary, Chapel Hill and Durham make up 98 percent of the 76 million square feet of office inventory in the Triangle area. With 461,119 square feet of absorption year-to-date in the third quarter of 2011, the market remains positive. Owner-occupant companies had a major effect on positive absorption. In the third quarter, nine of the 12 submarkets showed positive absorption and decreased vacancy rate over the previous quarter. Wachovia contributed to the negative …
During the last 12 months, the Raleigh/Durham apartment market has continued to maintain a lofty appeal in the eyes of local, regional and institutional investors. The fundamentals of the region, including its growth projections, the diversity of employment and the driving force that is created by three major research universities, has continued to offer good reasons for investors to inject capital into the Raleigh/Durham apartment market. After a slow start in 2010, many developers have set their eyes on taking advantage of the reduced development pipeline that was a casualty of the recession. The institutions as well as local and regional developers with strong balance sheets were those that were in the best position to take advantage of being the first to break ground. After just a few developments started in 2010, the number of new construction starts and new developments in the planning stages during 2011 has exponentially increased. However, number of new apartment units added to the market in 2011 will be the lowest in recent memory. Part of the reason for this increase in development activity is that the investment sales market has been so strong in the Raleigh/Durham marketplace, arguably as strong or stronger than any …
The Raleigh/Durham retail market consists of approximately 41 million square feet and serves a population of about 1.75 million people. Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill comprise the “Research Triangle” metropolitan region, which is continuously ranked among the best areas in the nation to live and work. The retail market has an overall low vacancy rate and remains relatively healthy despite the lingering recession. A period of remarkable growth has slowed and only a handful of new developments opened in 2011. These include Park West Village, a 373,748 square feet power center located in Morrisville at Highway 54 and Cary Parkway, and the 57,511-square-foot Market at Colonnade, a shopping center anchored by Whole Foods and located on Six Forks Road in north Raleigh. Another notable project is the renovation of the 200,000-square-foot Waverly Place in Cary. Few new development opportunities are expected in the near future and positive absorption of vacancy for anchor and shop space has been encouraging, as centers have continued to strengthen albeit at lower rental rates. Job growth drivers are simply not there to support the rapid retail growth the area experienced prior to the recession. Trends in the marketplace include expansion of discount chains such as …
The retail market in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA (“The Triangle”) is steadily improving. Retail vacancy dropped to 8.39 percent within the Triangle as of the third quarter — the result approximately 525,000 square feet in absorption over the past 12 months. Investors and retailers alike continue to be attracted to the region because of its sustainable economy fueled by the state government, Research Triangle Park and the University system. Several new anchor retailers entered the Triangle market during 2010, absorbing the majority of available boxes abandoned by Circuit City and Linens ‘N Things. Nordstrom Rack filled the former Linens ‘N Things space at CBL’s Renaissance Center at Southpoint in Durham; Ollie’s Bargain Outlet opened at York Properties’ Cary Village Square in Cary; The Container Storemade its Triangle debut in the former Circuit City location on Glenwood Avenue across from Crabtree Valley Mall in Raleigh; and buybuy BABY opened its first Triangle location at Kimco’s New Hope Commons in Durham. Only a small amount of new retail development was completed in 2010. Kane Realty delivered the only anchored retail project at North Hills East, which is situated at Six Forks Road and Interstate 440 — Raleigh’s “Beltline”. Anchored by Harris Teeter …
In the stifling heat of August, the Charlotte office market seemed stagnant and weak. According to Jones Lang LaSalle, Charlotte lost nearly 13,000 jobs in the first two quarters of this year, pushing the unemployment rate to 12 percent. Year-over-year, second quarter office leasing activity fell 32 percent. To further paint a grim picture, Jones Lang LaSalle predicts that downtown Charlotte is in for a double-digit vacancy rate, due to the 2.5 million square feet of office space that will see completion in the next 18 to 24 months. In reality, the future of the Charlotte office market is much brighter than it looks on paper. “At the street level, a lot of brokers remain pretty busy. There are still deals being done; they’re just taking longer,” says Tim Bahr of Charlotte-based NAI Southern Real Estate. It also happens to be the tail end of vacation season, and everything, commercial real estate included, is a bit more sluggish during the twilight of summer than during the rest of the year. “This time of year is typically slow. With the economy, it just seems like that’s amplified things a bit,” he says. The office spaces that are frequently being occupied in …