Houston’s multifamily market appears to be on the verge of recovery after facing considerable headwinds in 2016. Job growth, population growth and faster-than-anticipated apartment absorption in the first half of 2017 are luring investors and lenders back to the region, putting the market on solid footing for future growth. To better understand how we arrived here and to grasp near-term expectations, let’s take a brief look back. The collapse in energy prices and the ensuing job losses of 2015 and 2016 dealt a considerable blow to the overall Houston economy, particularly the multifamily sector. Developers had already started construction on thousands of new units in 2014 and 2015. In 2016 alone, multifamily development had delivered 21,791 new units — a 20-year high. This left a tremendous oversupply of inventory to be absorbed during a period of anemic job growth – only 15,000 new jobs were created in 2016. Supply-side pressure shifted vacancies up and rents down, while investment sales volume dropped dramatically. Today, the picture is quite different. Overall economic fundamentals are steadily improving, taking the multifamily sector along with them. While the energy sector is still in a period of retrenchment, sectors such as education, health services and hospitality/leisure …
