ORLANDO, FLA. — The U.S. economy and the stock market are sending opposite messages to the commercial real estate community, causing many industry professionals to scratch their heads. On the one hand, the leading economic indicators are solid. Monthly gains in nonfarm payroll employment averaged 280,000 during the fourth quarter of 2015, and the national unemployment rate ended the year at 5 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 2.5 percent in 2015, a sign that wage growth is accelerating. The Federal Reserve’s decision in December to raise short-term rates by a quarter percentage point — the first such move in nearly 10 years — was an acknowledgment that the recovery has legs. Real gross domestic product grew a modest 2.4 percent in 2015. But the Dow has fallen about 2,000 points in the last couple of weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped approximately 40 basis points during the same period. Meanwhile, several of Europe’s central banks have cut key interest rates below zero. The Bank of Japan did the same in late January to stimulate its economy. Add to the mix the concerns about China’s economic growth and conflict in the Middle East, and it’s easy to see why …
