Walker & Dunlop

While summer fairs and carnivals are mostly on hold, 2020 has taken us on a wild ride as the COVID-19 pandemic whipsawed the global economy in the first half of the year. The U.S. economy crashed downward in March as shelter-in-place rules drove unemployment to record numbers, surpassing peak levels of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in just one month. U.S. unemployment reached 14.7 percent in April, well above the 10.9 percent peak of the GFC. Including part-time workers who wish to work full-time (the U-6 rate), unemployment reached a staggering 22.8 percent in April. Real GDP fell by 5 percent in the first quarter of the year and by 32.9 percent in the second quarter of the year, the worst decline on record. Politicians scrambled to put a social net under the economy, again quickly surpassing levels of the GFC. The Fed balance sheet swelled by $3 trillion from March to May, more than double the amount during the GFC. Interest rates first spiked as lenders underwrote unforeseen risk, then crashed globally as countries began to backstop their economies. U.S. 10-year treasury yields have remained under 1 percent since early March, the lowest rates on record. But the …

The spread of COVID-19 is impacting all industries and markets — including the appraisal space. That said, appraisers should avoid making long-term assumptions about the impact the virus will have on real estate values. According to the Appraisal Institute, the current environment is fluid: An important part of any appraisal assignment is an analysis of market conditions. The coronavirus threat may be impacting market conditions. However, in most markets, it is not yet clear to what extent, if any, market conditions are affected. Related, complicating factors include fluctuations in the stock market and changes in mortgage interest rates. Market analysis includes observing market reactions. This analysis becomes more complicated when market participants themselves are facing uncertainty. Appraisal reports should include a discussion of market conditions and should mention the coronavirus outbreak and its possible impact. However, it is not appropriate to include a disclaimer or extraordinary assumption that suggests the appraiser is not taking responsibility for the analysis of market conditions. While it is important that multifamily appraisers do not jump to conclusions and make long-term predictions, we must understand the different ways in which COVID-19 is currently impacting the commercial real estate market. It is also important that we …