Webinar

The U.S. retail industry is entering a new era of transformation, and two forces are emerging as the primary architects of change: Generation Z and artificial intelligence (AI). Insights from the National Retail Federation’s recent “State of Retail and the Consumer” webinar underscore the industry’s modern reality — today’s consumer is actively reshaping how products are discovered, evaluated and, ultimately, purchased. While the oldest of Gen Z consumers are on the cusp of turning 30, the youngest are transitioning into high school. “They’re not kids anymore — they’re teenagers, college students and young adults, and it shows in their spending habits and their sentiment,” said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF, during the webinar. “We see them increasingly influencing holiday traditions, differentiating themselves and how they manage costs, as well as leading the adoption of AI tools and platforms.” Even with feelings of uncertainty on both the broader macroeconomic and individual levels, Gen Z consumers are still choosing to spend money in moments of joy and looking for ways to “treat themselves.” In the past five years, average apartment rental rates in the United States have risen 25 to 30 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels …

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected that 2026 U.S. retail sales will grow 4.4 percent over 2025 to $5.6 trillion, outpacing pre-pandemic averages and signaling continued momentum despite global volatility. This year’s projection was announced during the organization’s sixth annual “State of Retail and the Consumer” webinar held on March 18, which examined the health of American consumers and the overall retail industry. NRF’s calculation, created in partnership with Oxford Economics using a new economic model, excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants. The new model integrates a wider range of real-time data to better capture consumer behavior compared to the previous forecasting methods that relied on broader indicators. Although the forecast is in nominal terms (unadjusted for inflation), this model anticipates that a higher proportion of projected sales growth will reflect real gains, rather than inflation-driven increases. The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6 percent average annual sales growth over the past 10 years, excluding the COVID period from 2020 to 2022 when growth was atypical. “While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead,” said …