Western

By Patrick McGlohn, senior managing director, Berkadia After two years of caution and recalibration, capital is flowing back into commercial real estate. The bid-ask gap between buyers and sellers is narrowing, underwriting assumptions are stabilizing and both equity and debt investors are once again finding common ground. At Berkadia, we’re seeing equity move from the sidelines to the playing field, selectively, but decisively. Equity’s Comeback: Selective, but Strong Private equity and institutional investors are increasingly re-entering the market, with activity strongest in the “Smile States,” stretching from Northern Virginia to the western states and extending into major cities like Chicago. Much of the capital is chasing value-add and opportunistic plays rather than core, stabilized assets. Over the past couple of years, many equity investors would only touch preferred equity because of valuation uncertainty, but now we’re seeing common equity return in a meaningful way. The change reflects both greater pricing clarity and a collective sense that the bottom of the market cycle has passed. Navigating the Wall of Maturities The looming wall of debt maturities remains a defining storyline for 2025 and beyond. Nearly $950 billion in commercial mortgages matured in 2025 — roughly 20 percent of all outstanding commercial …