The Phoenix industrial market ended the second quarter of 2013 with vacancy rates at 12.4 percent, while net absorption totaled a positive 471,635 square feet. Asking rents are increasing and demand for larger facilities has been the catalyst in the recovery. Over the past 15 years, vacancy rates have averaged 10.3 percent, providing evidence that the current market is not far off from the average. Phoenix has historically seen significant cyclical swings. This past recession has been no exception to this. However, the positive net absorption the area’s industrial sector has experienced over the past two-plus years signals that the Valley is well on its way to recovery. The Phoenix market has absorbed 20.7 million square feet, and has built more than 7 million square feet of new space. Year-over-year, the total number of transactions has increased 24 percent, bringing excitement to the Valley once again. Big box industrial in Phoenix has absorbed about 15 million square feet of space on a net basis throughout 2011 and 2012. The vast majority of that net absorption has been big box product in the Southwest Valley. Rental rates also increased from the high $0.20 net range to a current low-mid $0.30 range …
Arizona
The multifamily market in the Phoenix metropolitan area remains, as it was in 2012, the most popular property sector for investment and new construction. Post-recession job creation, coupled with echo-boomers leaving the nest, has created a leveraged demand for multifamily product. Years of near-zero construction, followed by a rapid increase in demand, has created a landlord’s market throughout most of the valley. Vacancy across the Phoenix metro area is now less than 7 percent. It is expected to fall to less than 6 percent by the end of the year. Rental rates are up 3 percent to 5 percent valley-wide, with some submarkets fairing much better than others. Scottsdale, North Tempe and South Phoenix are some of the areas where rents are up significantly and vacancies are down. Concessions are waning in most regions, though a few remain in parts of the West Valley and Central Black Canyon. This surge in demand is spurring new apartment development catering to Generation Y (echo-boomer) tenants. Many in this demographic subset are choosing apartment living. They are doing so for two reasons: either to avoid the hurdles of qualifying for a home mortgage or to enjoy higher-end finishes and amenities that are found …
After several years with virtually no new construction of multifamily homes, the Metro Phoenix market looks to rebound with a pipeline of projects that could result in 5,000 to 7,000 new units built per year in 2013, 2014 and 2015. That returns our market to construction levels last seen in 2007. In order to see this volume of construction, developers will need to be successful in raising the required equity, which has been a challenge. At the end of 2012, the Valley had 17 projects (of 50 units or greater) under construction, totaling a little more than 4,200 units. Building on that, we expect to see 15 to 20 projects per year through 2015. This is just a fraction of the more than 20,000 units filling the development pipeline. The demand for all these units, however, will hinge on Phoenix’s population and job growth. It will also be influenced by the national and global economies. Developers are capitalizing on the recent purchases of properties in prime, upscale locations that were not previously considered for strictly rental housing. Alliance Residential, P.B. Bell and JLB have all either begun construction or have plans in the works for rental developments in premium Phoenix …
Well, 2012 has come to an end, the fiscal cliff has been averted for now and the presidential election is behind us. Despite it all, retail sales in the Arizona market seemed to fair reasonably well last year, albeit with markdowns acting as the trigger point for consumers to make those last-minute holiday purchases. With an active 2012 under our belts, the Phoenix market is hoping to outdo itself this year with leasing activity as retailers gear up for cautious expansions, downsizes and relocations. The housing picture for Maricopa County is terrific in terms of inventory being absorbed. Homebuilders are building out improved lots and creating new subdivisions. It is likely that new housing permits, which were positive in 2011, will result in more than 12,000 new homes in 2013. This number should increase steadily for the balance of the decade. This is not to indicate that new retail development will be built anytime soon, but that these numbers may create more of an opportunity to fill existing retail space that has a current vacancy rate of 11.7 percent. Last year, we experienced a positive absorption of 1.03 million square feet, according to CoStar. Therefore, unless a significant amount of …
The investment climate for the Phoenix office market is poised to provide compelling acquisition opportunities in 2013. Favorable job growth, improving market fundamentals and assets available at discounts to replacement costs are expected to enhance asset appreciation over the next several years. Phoenix has historically generated strong job growth after recessionary periods. Recent data supports this trend, as Metro Phoenix added 50,700 jobs over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary November 2012 figures. This job growth has lowered the unemployment rate to 6.9 percent as of October 2012, well below the national rate of 7.9 percent. The area is expected to continue adding 50,000 new jobs annually through 2015, driving vacancy rates downward and creating upward pressure on rental rates and property values. Employment growth in professional and business services, and in the financial sector, is of chief importance as a demand generator for office space. Phoenix has also benefited from strong population growth. Metro Phoenix is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year over the next 10 years, a pace that is more than twice that of the national average. Affordable housing, a business-friendly environment and a well-educated …
The Metro Phoenix industrial market has been climbing its way to recovery for the past few years, but the activity of 2012 showed the strongest signs of diversified activity of a healthy marketplace. While overall net leasing was down slightly from 2011, the city benefitted from an abundance of medium and large transactions reflecting many types of industrial users leasing and buying throughout the city. This diversity indicates overall health — and not just in our traditional big box arena. In several strong submarkets, we saw owners pushing back on users’ terms due to improved portfolio and individual property activity. The city’s big box hub of Southwest Phoenix experienced continued strong activity with a variety of notable leases and property sales. We saw a shift to speculative construction and actual groundbreakings taking place on multiple projects. Phoenix has more than 2.6 million square feet of industrial space under construction, with more than 2.2 million of that being situated in the Southwest area. Overall net absorption in that area totaled more than 1.3 million square feet in 2012, leading to a shortage of available large facilities following three years of top eight national leasing and sales activity. The overall net absorption …
The Pheonix economy is recovering slowly, with accelerating employment growth and rising housing prices outpacing national averages. These drivers have begun to stabilize the local retail market, and with future economic expansion likely going forward, retailers are expected to become more active. In 2013, retailers are forecast to absorb about twice as much space as they did in 2012. While vacancy rates remain above 10 percent in many of the valley’s primary trade areas, the overall retail outlook is more promising than in recent years. Following a pre-recession wave of retail construction, development activity has been limited to just a handful of projects over the past several years. The largest project to deliver in 2012 was the 328,000-square-foot Tanger Outlet Mall at Westgate. The center came online during the fourth quarter almost entirely pre-leased and accounted for about 30 percent of the total net absorption in the West Valley in 2012. No projects of this size are expected to be delivered in 2013, and developers will remain on the sidelines for a few more years before bringing additional shopping centers to the market. With vacancy still elevated throughout much of the valley, the development that occurs in 2013 will likely …
The Phoenix industrial market continues its convincing march toward recovery by reaching several milestones. As a more resilient sector during the recession, the industrial market was not plagued with as much bad debt and CMBS loan defaults as other sectors. Industry experts concluded the industrial sector would recover faster as favorable economic conditions such as durable goods orders and manufacturing output favored the industrial market early. The sector has posted 10 consecutive quarters of positive absorption dating back to 2010. Vacancy rates have returned to levels not seen since the third quarter of 2008. This positive direction reflects a rebound in U.S. exports, consumer spending and online purchasing, which has led to a high demand for large distribution space in which there are few options in Phoenix. Confidence in the industrial market – and in Phoenix in particular – has brought renewed interest in developing new projects. Most new construction is a combination of build-to-suit manufacturing space and several new speculative projects to meet the demand for distribution space of more than 100,000 square feet. Industrial investment sales transaction velocity remains quite strong even though it’s declined from last quarter’s significant level. However, price per square footage has increased once …
It is important to understand that the mid-2000s did not reflect a sustainable level of industrial leasing activity. Real estate in general — and Phoenix in particular — has always been subject to cycles. The past few years have seen a flight to quality with tenants moving from older buildings to newer, more modern facilities. They were able to lease new space at bargain rates that were at or below what they were paying for their older facilities. The initial signs of an improving economy have already manifested themselves in an industrial demand increase. This trend is expected to continue and gradually gain momentum, albeit not along the same steep trajectory of recent growth patterns. At the end of the first quarter of 2012, the national industrial market consisted of 289,117,054 square feet. It currently has 39,089,600 square feet of vacant space. At the beginning of 2011, the industrial vacancy rate stood at 15.5 percent. With 6,993,112 square feet of positive net absorption in 2011 and 302,468 square feet in the first quarter of 2012, the vacancy rate now registers at 13.5 percent. Despite positive absorption, the overall average rental rates have seen little improvement over 2011 with the exception …
Employment and population growth is spurring apartment demand in Phoenix, encouraging developers to ramp up construction. Although Class A rents are above mortgage payments on a median-priced home, many potential homebuyers will be unable to compete against investors that purchase bank-owned houses to operate as rentals. The metro is a target for these well-capitalized buyers, as home prices have dropped nearly 60 percent since the peak, while the local economy is gaining traction. By the close of this year, more than 80,000 positions will have been recouped in Phoenix, marking three consecutive years of job gains. The rental pool is poised to grow as many lower-priced homes are purchased by cash buyers and residents contend with qualifying hurdles due to short employment histories. As a result, strong apartment demand will enable most operators to boost rents to all-time highs, pushing residents down the quality ladder. Distant headwinds are starting to form, however, as builders recently broke ground on multiple projects that will add thousands of inventory units over the next few years. This, combined with competition from houses employed as rentals, could mean apartment owners may face significant competition as early as 2013. A sharp rise in leasing activity during …