By Ramon Kochavi, First Vice President and Regional Manager, Marcus & Millichap Winston Churchill wrote, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Precipitated by a once-in-a-lifetime health crisis, the 2020 market shift has had an oversized effect on Northern California’s multifamily marketplace. The ongoing pandemic has the hallmarks of an event that causes people — including real estate investors — to draw overarching conclusions. Overreaction is a characteristic of most recessions, but time and time again, investors have turned away from the Bay Area only to spend the next decade watching rent growth and massive appreciation from the sideline of some secondary market. While some Bay Area cities experienced double-digit, year-over-year rent decreases, these reductions are likely transitory in nature. Three factors have led to the Bay Area apartment rent growth over the past three decades: • A limited supply of units • A robust labor market (especially high paying jobs) • An onerous regulatory environment. These three trends are still present in the marketplace. While some jobs have transformed into either hybrid or fully remote positions, there is no doubt that the majority of work, especially entry level, will return to an office setting after the health crisis. Office …
