By Derrick Barker, founder and CEO, Nectar
Many founders and CEOs in commercial real estate have seen their fair share of market cycles. Analyzing today’s affordable housing crisis within the current multifamily rental market lends itself to sharing personal insights and most importantly, discussing how we can address these challenges head-on.
A Cautionary Tale from 2013
Consider this personal story as anecdotal evidence.
In 2013, this writer, a private investor at the time, acquired an apartment complex in Austell, Georgia, a suburb of Atlanta. It was a prime investment: cash-flowing and competitively priced due to it being a buyer’s market. For a while, we were the crown jewel of the submarket, which gave us a competitive advantage when leasing.
But the tide turned quickly. Neighboring properties that were previously underperforming sold at discounts. New owners used their cost savings to renovate and undercut our rental rates. Suddenly, our competitive edge vanished, and we found ourselves with overpriced, outdated units.
This experience imparted a crucial lesson: In real estate, you must always be prepared for market shifts — because the market ALWAYS shifts.
Fast forward to today, and we’re seeing some eerily familiar patterns in the following areas:
- Rent Stagnation: After years of steady growth, rents have plateaued in many markets. Ironically, renting is often now more affordable than buying due to skyrocketing mortgage rates for single-family homes.
- Supply Surge: We’re witnessing a once in a generation influx of new apartment deliveries, often concentrated in “hot” markets. This is a hangover from the favorable financing conditions of 2021-2022.
- Concentrated Development: Many developers flocked to the same areas, leading to localized oversupply. For instance, Chosewood Park in Atlanta has seen its housing stock double in just a few years.
The Developer’s Dilemma
To illustrate the current challenges, let’s consider a hypothetical developer, Dave. In 2021, Dave secured a loan to build an apartment complex, anticipating a profitable sale in three years. Now, he’s facing:
- Inflated construction costs during the post-pandemic period
- Mortgage interest rates that have nearly doubled
- Fierce competition from newly delivered neighboring properties
- Lower property valuations due to higher cap rates
- Reduced capital availability to refinance his existing loan
To put it mildly, Dave is under a lot of stress. His time is running out. Will he be able to <insert Hail Mary options>?
This scenario is playing out across the country, creating a strong headwind to rental rates as developers compete to attract tenants and cash out of their deals without taking losses.
Long-Term Implications for Affordable Housing
While this temporary oversupply might seem beneficial for renters in the short term, it poses significant long-term challenges
For starters, there’s a liquidity crunch. Even financially sound affordable housing developers may face cash-flow issues in completing projects or refinancing existing properties.
Second, there is a diminished capacity to developing new projects. As developers struggle, new construction grinds to a halt. Some may exit the industry entirely, setting the stage for future housing shortages.
Lastly, rents are set to rise over the long run. While the cost of renting will dip slightly in the near term, providing temporary relief for renters, the lack of supply growth over the next several years will increase the price of renting, bringing us right back to square one.
Creating a Stable Affordable Housing Market
Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach and adherence to the following principles:
- Preserve Development Capacity: It’s crucial that governments and the industry as a whole support and retain experienced developers. Their knowledge and skills will be invaluable when the market rebounds.
- Provide Flexible Financing: We need to offer innovative financing solutions that can adapt to existing market conditions, helping developers weather the storm.
- Focus on Long-Term Stability: Encourage development models that prioritize long-term stability over short-term gains.
- Support Affordable Housing Initiatives: Double down on efforts to create and preserve affordable housing, which remains in high demand regardless of market conditions.
- Foster New Talent: While supporting experienced developers, we must also nurture the next generation of real estate professionals.
Supporting Owners, Developers
Rather than just observing these challenges, it’s critical we find ways to solve them. Here are some considerations:
- Liquidity Solutions: Provide liquidity to experienced operators, allowing them to tap into the equity of their cash-flowing properties without selling or refinancing.
- Flexible Terms: Offer financing options that are tailored to each owner’s unique situation, with terms that can adapt to market conditions.
- Fast Funding: Understand that timing is critical, create a streamlined process that allows lenders to disburse capital in days — not weeks — to first-time customers and even faster for returning clients.
- Preserving Equity: Consider a model that allows owners to access capital without diluting their ownership or giving up future upside.
- Bridge to Opportunity: Provide the working capital needed for owners to seize opportunities in this challenging market, positioning them for success when conditions improve.
Looking Ahead
While the current market presents significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for those who are prepared. By supporting experienced developers, fostering new talent and providing innovative financing solutions, the multifamily industry can work towards a more stable and affordable housing market in the long term.
Remember, market cycles are inevitable. But with the right strategies and support, we can turn these challenges into opportunities for growth and positive change in the commercial real estate industry.